Bring On The Cats - KSU Football Week 12: Texas ChristianA Kansas State Wildcats Blog -- Carrying the Banner Highhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47995/bringoncats_fave.png2013-11-16T19:42:31-06:00http://www.bringonthecats.com/rss/stream/48658712013-11-16T19:42:31-06:002013-11-16T19:42:31-06:00Legs: K-State 33, TCU 31
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<img alt="This guy almost doomed the Wildcats. Too bad we don't have a photo of the guy who saved them." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AmBgjwXc2H6iUx9flJ4tJNvLZ4w=/0x536:2800x2403/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/23339673/20120911_kkt_an4_761.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>This guy almost doomed the Wildcats. Too bad we don't have a photo of the guy who saved them. | Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>It was a crazy, maddening roller-coaster ride, but the Wildcats pulled out the win and ensured a trip to a bowl game.</p> <p><b>They've</b> got legs, and they know how to use them. Oddly fitting that we're cribbing from a Texas band, but it's the only fitting epitaph for K-State's 33-31 nailbiter win over TCU.</p>
<p><b>Things</b> got off to a rousing start for the Wildcats, who scored twice in the first quarter after a tradeoff of stalled drives. A <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/76565/blake-slaughter">Blake Slaughter</a> interception off <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/77347/casey-pachall">Casey Pachall</a> set up an 11-yard <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134219/daniel-sams">Daniel Sams</a> prance, and on the next drive Jake Waters launched a 74-yard bomb to <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134225/tyler-lockett">Tyler Lockett</a>, who beat All-American CB Jason Verrett like a rented mule on the play. After that, though, the offense bogged down for the remainder of the half, helped out by Waters throwing an interception right into the waiting arms of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/114582/sam-carter">Sam Carter</a>.</p>
<p><b>Worse</b>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/115040/ty-zimmerman">Ty Zimmerman</a> went down with an ankle injury and would not return; this would have enormous repercussions through the rest of the game, though the Wildcats got through the rest of the half without the issue becoming apparent. The scoreboard remained untouched for nearly 12 minutes before TCU scored on a 15-yard dash by <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/161255/b-j-catalon">B.J. Catalon</a>. The Wildcats horribly mismanaged the clock on the half-ending drive, and were forced to settle for a 31-yard <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134223/jack-cantele">Jack Cantele</a> field goal to enter the locker room with a 10-point cushion.</p>
<p><b>Surely</b> that wouldn't be a problem against the TCU offense, right?</p>
<p><b>Unfortunately</b>, the Wildcat offense rolled over and died early in the third quarter. TCU took two plays to get from midfield to the two yard line, then another two plays resulted in <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135251/trevone-boykin">Trevone Boykin</a> popping a one-yard touchdown jump pass to Josh Doctson . Sams was then stripped of the ball by Verrett near midfield; TCU went 59 yards in eight plays to take the lead on a seven-yard Boykin run.</p>
<p><b>Artillery</b> took over for the next minute and eighteen seconds. After a sack and an incomplete pass, Waters struck again, launching a horribly ill-advised pass which miraculously turned into a 79-yard touchdown to Tramaine Thompson. TCU responded in almost the exact same fashion; an incompletion and a short run were followed by a 51-yard strike from Casey Pachall to <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135257/david-porter">David Porter</a>, who totally pantsed Zimmerman's replacement <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/160900/dylan-schellenberg">Dylan Schellenberg</a>.</p>
<p><b>K-State's</b> ground game got some traction on the following drive. Waters busted off a 19-yard run which turned into a 34-yard gain when he was roughed up at the end. A couple of plays later, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/76559/john-hubert">John Hubert</a> got his only positive yardage of the game to that point on a 15-yard scamper. The drive bogged down, though, and the Cats had to settle for a 34-yard field goal by Cantele, and still trailed 28-27.</p>
<p><b>Defense</b> ruled much of the final 18 minutes. K-State held TCU on a drive which edged into the fourth quarter, then ground clock mercilessly with a 14-yard drive which gobbled up over eight minutes, aided by a bizarre penalty on a Wildcat punt attempt. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/160897/mark-krause">Mark Krause</a> managed to drop the punt out of bounds at the two yard line, but then things got crazy. TCU had sent Boykin out to receive the punt, and Verrett out on coverage. The problem? They both wear #2, and Snyder pointed out the problem. TCU was flagged for an illegal equipment infraction, turning fourth-and-six into fourth-and-one; Snyder sent Sams out to convert, and the drive continued. The drive stalled at the TCU 6, however, and on fourth and goal Snyder opted to take the lead, sending Cantele out to hit a 23-yarder. TCU drove into K-State territory, but the defense held on third-and-five at the 39, and it looked like the game was in the bag.</p>
<p><b>Jaden</b> Oberkrom lined up and belted the 56-yard field goal which put TCU up 31-30, and suddenly things looked grim. But Lockett made a decent return of the ensuing kickoff, and then <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/202641/jake-waters">Jake Waters</a> went to work. After an incompletion, Waters hit <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134222/curry-sexton">Curry Sexton</a> for 28, stopping the clock. Two more incompletions followed before Waters found Lockett for 12 yards and another move of the sticks. K-State had the ball at the TCU 28 with 1:26 to go.</p>
<p><b>Suddenly</b>, the wheels appeared to fall off. Hubert only gained two; Snyder burned his second timeout. Waters lost a yard; Snyder burned timeout number three. And then a false start pushed the Cats back to the 32. On third and 14, with 33 seconds left and no timeouts, Waters again connected with Lockett for an eight-yard gain, getting back into field goal range for Cantele, who lined up for a 41-yard attempt.</p>
<p><b>Three</b> seconds remained on the clock when the ball sailed through the uprights. K-State was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct during the celebration afterward, but kicking off from the 20 isn't much of an issue for <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/202687/ian-patterson">Ian Patterson</a>. He managed to reach the TCU 20 with the kick; all the laterals in the world didn't save the Frogs, and after the ball hit the turf and got covered up, Kansas State was finally bowl eligible.</p>
<p><b>Interestingly</b>, now that the goal of extending the season a month has been met, perhaps it doesn't much matter what happens the next two weeks. Yes, finishing the season 8-5 or 9-4 will be nice, and the latter will almost certainly guarantee that the Cats will end up ranked to end the season. That would be a good jumping-off point for the 2014 campaign. But the critical necessity for this team was getting bowl eligibility in pocket so that this squad can get an additional month of practice time in. That's been achieved, through no small heroics the last month, and that bodes well for next season.</p>
<p><b>Oklahoma</b> still better watch out, though. I think the guys might be a little fired up.</p>
https://www.bringonthecats.com/2013/11/16/5112644/legs-k-state-33-tcu-31-college-football-2013Jon Morse2013-11-16T13:30:04-06:002013-11-16T13:30:04-06:00Open Game Thread: K-State vs. Texas Christian
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<p>K-State looks for bowl eligibility and its fourth straight Big 12 win. Meanwhile, Texas Christian comes to Manhattan looking to nurse its slim bowl eligibility chances and build on last week's win at Iowa State.</p> <p> </p>
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<p> </p>
<p><strong>To:</strong> K-State vs. Texas Christian</p>
<p><strong>When:</strong> November 16, 2013 | 2:30 p.m.</p>
<p><strong>Where: </strong> Manhattan, Kan. | Bill Snyder Family Stadium (50,000)</p>
<p>K-State is bowl eligible with a win in this one. <a href="http://www.bringonthecats.com/2013/11/13/5101830/ksu-football-week-12-texas-christian">Check out our TCU coverage at this link</a>.</p>
<p>Go Cats!</p>
https://www.bringonthecats.com/2013/11/16/5110624/open-game-thread-k-state-vs-texas-christianTB2013-11-15T10:00:19-06:002013-11-15T10:00:19-06:00Kicking the Tires: Texas Christian
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<p>Fresh off a blowout win over Texas Tech in Lubbock, K-State returns home looking to attain bowl eligibility. The opponent is the Texas Christian Horned Frogs, who got a last-second win in Ames last Saturday.</p> <p>It's nearly 1 a.m. as I write this, so we're going to keep things relatively brief here.</p>
<p>K-State rolls into this weekened's home matchup with Texas Christian on a three-game winning streak. The Wildcats have rescued what looked like a lost season after consecutive losses to Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor, and now stand on the precipice of bowl eligibility. Not exactly the loftiest standard in today's college football world, but with remaining games against the struggling <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/teams/oklahoma-sooners">Oklahoma Sooners</a> and the conference's doormat down the river, K-State could somehow finish 8-4. Realistically, even.</p>
<p>Texas Christian is headed mostly in the opposite direction, although the Horned Frogs did get a win over Iowa State last weekend in Ames. Just ignore that they had to score a touchdown with less than a minute remaining to continue Iowa State's winless season in Big 12 play and it sounds a little better. TCU still has slim bowl eligibility hopes at 4-6, and you know Gary Patterson and Dick Bumpas will bring a stout defense to The Little Apple.</p>
<p><b>Players to Watch</b></p>
<p><i>K-State</i></p>
<p>Passing: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/202641/jake-waters">Jake Waters</a>, 101-159-5, 1,456 yards, 9.2 yards/attempt, 8 TDs, 161.8 yards/game</p>
<p>Rushing: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/76559/john-hubert">John Hubert</a>, 137 carries, 706 yards, 5.2 yards/carry, 8 TDs, 78.4 yards/game</p>
<p>Receiving: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134225/tyler-lockett">Tyler Lockett</a>, 48 receptions, 702 yards, 14.6 yards/reception, 4 TDs, 87.8 yards/game</p>
<p><i>TCU</i></p>
<p>Passing: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/77347/casey-pachall">Casey Pachall</a>, 90-158-6, 953 yards, 6.0 yards/attempt, 3 TDs, 190.6 yards/game</p>
<p>Rushing: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/161255/b-j-catalon">B.J. Catalon</a>, 84 carries, 405 yards, 4.8 yards/carry, 5 TDs, 45.0 yards/game</p>
<p>Receiving: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135273/ladarius-brown">LaDarius Brown</a>, 32 receptions, 322 yards, 10.1 yards/reception, 1 TD, 32.2 yards/game</p>
<p>With Pachall injured most of the season, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135251/trevone-boykin">Trevone Boykin</a> has taken most of the snaps at quarterback. Boykin's passing line is 103-174-7, 1,176 yards, 6.8 yards/attempt, 5 TDs, 117.6 yards/game. He's a solid rushing quarterback, even if the stats (3.1 yards per carry, unadjusted for sacks) don't show it.</p>
<p>The stats above show it pretty plainly. TCU does not have a big-play offense, and their efficiency is also questionable (as you'll see below). With K-State's defense playing much more disciplined lately, the Frogs will have to sustain long drives to score in Manhattan. Thus far this season, they've been unable to do so.</p>
<p><b>K-State Advanced Stats</b></p>
<p>F/+: 22nd</p>
<p>Offensive S&P+: 17th</p>
<p>Rushing S&P+: 16th</p>
<p>Passing S&P+: 20th</p>
<p>Drive Efficiency: 17th</p>
<p>Standard Downs S&P+: 17th</p>
<p>Passing Downs S&P+: 31st</p>
<p>Defensive S&P+: 33rd</p>
<p>Rushing S&P+: 74th</p>
<p>Passing S&P+: 12th</p>
<p>Drive Efficiency: 31st</p>
<p>Standard Downs S&P+: 50th</p>
<p>Passing Downs S&P+: 9th</p>
<p>Special Teams F/+: 7th</p>
<p><b>Texas Christian Advanced Stats</b></p>
<p>F/+: 57th</p>
<p>Offensive S&P+: 101st</p>
<p>Rushing S&P+: 108th</p>
<p>Passing S&P+: 86th</p>
<p>Drive Efficiency: 107th</p>
<p>Standard Downs S&P+: 88th</p>
<p>Passing Downs S&P+: 106th</p>
<p>Defensive S&P+: 16th</p>
<p>Rushing S&P+: 22nd</p>
<p>Passing S&P+: 26th</p>
<p>Drive Efficiency: 18th</p>
<p>Standard Downs S&P+: 8th</p>
<p>Passing Downs S&P+: 38th</p>
<p>Special Teams F/+: 76th</p>
<p>TCU's defense is legitimately good, bordering on excellent. The Frogs are in the top quarter of the country in everything except defending on passing downs. Fortunately for our friends from Forth Worth, that's K-State's biggest offensive weakness. And when you factor in that TCU's offense is 106th on Passing Downs, don't expect a lot of third-down conversions in this game.</p>
<p>Given TCU's offensive ineptitude and K-State's recent defensive resurgence, it's unlikely the Frogs are going to put many points on the board. And while TCU's defense is solid at taking the ball away from its opponents with 25 on the season, the offense is almost as good at giving it back, with 24 turnovers on the season. Between Pachall and Boykin, there's a very good chance that one of K-State's defenders will find a pass in his hands at some point.</p>
<p><b>Conclusion:</b> Against a defense like TCU's, don't expect a repeat of last week's points outburst in Lubbock. K-State will do well to crack 30 points this time around. And there's a good chance that this one is still somewhat close going to the final quarter. Remember that K-State only led 13-0 at halftime last year.</p>
<p>Still, despite TCU's vaunted defense, this game looks like a K-State win to me. The Frogs just can't score points, and between that and their turnover propensity, K-State is probably going to have plenty of opportunities to kill the clock. Combine that with a K-State defense that takes away big plays and feasts on quarterbacks who can't consistently hit short passes in small windows, and the under (whatever it is) looks like a good bet in this one.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/11/14/5103866/college-football-fplus-picks-week-12" target="_blank">Bill Connelly's F/+ picks</a> peg this one as a 28-10 K-State win, with the Wildcats nearly a 90-percent bet to win. I won't depart far from that. There's a good chance this one looks an awful lot like the Iowa State game.</p>
<p><b>K-State 31, Texas Christian 7</b></p>
https://www.bringonthecats.com/2013/11/15/5106926/kicking-the-tires-texas-christianTB2013-11-14T13:00:08-06:002013-11-14T13:00:08-06:00K-State Q&A: Texas Christian
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<figcaption>Hey, Gary! Welcome home! | David Purdy</figcaption>
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<p>Jon chats with HawkeyedFrog about Saturday's tilt with the not-Hawkeyed Frogs.</p> <p><i>Up next we've got the other new kids on the block as our old pal Gary Patterson comes to town with his young charges from TCU. It's purple-on-purple violence. To get you all ready for it, we sat down with HawkeyedFrog from TCU's excellent SB Nation blog <a target="_blank" href="http://www.frogsowar.com/">Frogs o' War</a> to get the skinny on things.</i></p>
<p><b>Jon</b>: <i>You've had fifteen games to settle into your new conference digs. Obviously, the move was going to be a win for TCU no matter what, and I doubt anyone has any honest regrets... but has watching the win total shrink caused any serious heartburn?</i></p>
<p><b>HF</b>: To me it's not the shrinking win column that has caused heartburn, as I was prepared for the big upgrade competition in the Big 12 to mean a lot more 8-9 win seasons than 12 win seasons, as I saw TCU's place in the Big 12 as somewhat of an Oklahoma State/Kansas State- consistent bowl team with maybe one year in three or four where the right pieces fit and you win or seriously challenge for the conference title. I had even come around to the fact that a bowl bid is never guaranteed in the Big 12 (despite everyone except Kansas getting one last year) and had TCU simply been out-talented or injury plagued this year I think I'd still be able to carry on optimistically. The issue this year has been the coaching on the offensive side of the ball, which I'll expand upon (at great length) further below.</p>
<p><b>Jon</b>: <i>Last year, TCU could have done a lot better in the standings; the Frogs were only a couple of scores away from going 9-3/6-3, and that would have been an unqualified success as a first-year team. This year, it seems like a lot more of the same, as TCU could be 6-4/4-3 just as easily. Are you at all worried about whether Gary Patterson can get the team over the hump and start winning these close games?</i></p>
<p><b>HF</b>: If Patterson were new in town that would probably be a fair concern, but as Patterson has been around for well over a decade now it's easier to see the big picture with him. The first thing to love about Patterson is that he's not afraid to go for the win on the road- going for two point conversions to take the lead late at Boise in 2011 and in overtime at West Virginia last year. We also have vivid memories of a Rose Bowl triumph preserved at the last minute and even tight escapes from BYU and Utah in 2005 (before we learned how to blow their doors off). The only thing that would cause me to be concerned about Patterson winning close games in the Big 12 is if we keep the offensive staff after this year. Man, I've teased that twice now, fortunately the full story is up next.</p>
<p><b>Jon</b>: <i>Obviously, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/77347/casey-pachall">Casey Pachall</a> getting hurt and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/161275/devonte-fields">Devonte Fields</a> having issues were not the way to get the season rolling. But obviously there's more to the Frogs' issues this year. What's gone wrong?</i></p>
<p><b>HF</b>: Even though there have been injuries and expected starters leaving the team (starting tackle Tayo Fabuluje quitting football two weeks before LSU was painful, Devonte being suspended than injured for the season was worse), the main issues have been the offensive playcalling. It was harder to see last year due to the injury/surprise late draft departures of our star quarterback and top three running backs, but the play calling has suffered substantially since the departure of Justin Fuente to be head coach at Memphis to the point where a running back who was averaging almost ten ypc last year before his season ended can now get perhaps two-three carries in a game.</p>
<p>That's not exaggeration- Waymon James was averaging 5 ypc against Tech (without a run over ten yards to boost the average) got two carries against Kansas and three carries against Texas. Those numbers are one thing if you're a team like Tech or Baylor and have a highly accurate quarterback distributing the ball to a number of talented wide receivers, but quite another when you're trotting out a backup quarterback who's been splitting snaps all season at wide receiver and running back to throw the ball 30+ times a game.</p>
<p>As a result, we've had a whole lot of three pass plays and out (or an interception) to take next to no time off the clock (yet we're awful at hurry up as well) and trot the defense back out there again and again and hope that they can hold up playing the vast majority of the game. Even with Devonte Fields out the defense is incredible to the point where I'd put them up against just about any unit in the country as they do everything well apart from get consistent quarterback pressure (this is where we miss Fields), and as many times as they bail the offense out of a bad situation by forcing the other team backwards any team is going to get tired and frustrated when one side of the ball is doing all the work. Think of the Baltimore Ravens teams before they drafted Flacco. That's this year's TCU team.</p>
<p><b>Jon</b>: <i>Along those lines... what's gone right, and other than the obvious folks like <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135250/jason-verrett">Jason Verrett</a> and Pachall and Boykin, who should we be keeping an eye on?</i></p>
<p><b>HF</b>: I'd love to say running backs <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/77362/waymon-james">Waymon James</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/161255/b-j-catalon">B.J. Catalon</a>, but you probably want guys who are going to get the ball more than three times, don't you (yes, I'm bitter)? Linebacker Jonathan Anderson has been a nice surprise given his quick insertion into the starting lineup after presumed starter <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135258/joel-hasley">Joel Hasley</a> quit during fall practice and is the team's most sure tackler after all-everything cornerback Jason Verrett. Also keep an eye on the men in the middle, as DTs Davion Pierson and Chucky Hunter have been positively beastly in crushing the run this year while also often getting enough push up the middle to be the best pass rush options on the team as well. On offense apart from Pachall and Boykin watch out for the inside and outside combination of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/201487/ty-slanina">Ty Slanina</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/135273/ladarius-brown">LaDarius Brown</a>, as Slanina has the smooth speed and excellent hands to make grabs anywhere on the field while Brown is simply a beast whose size makes him virtually impossible for a cornerback to bring down alone if Brown has any momentum.</p>
<p><b>Jon</b>: <i>Tell us a little about how Patterson is these days on the sidelines. What sort of schemes is he favoring this year? Any particular wrinkles we need to be concerned with?</i></p>
<p><b>HF</b>: The defense never really changes- it's the same 4-2-5 base no matter if you're playing a finesse spread team like Baylor or Mike Leach's Tech teams, a power team like Wisconsin or even a triple option team like Air Force. We've been seeing more corner blitzes this year, as TCU's secondary is good enough to take on an extra man, so on passing downs keep an eye on Verrett for more than just coverage. Patterson's other preferred blitz this year has been sending a man straight up the gut, as with all-Big 12 talents at both DT positions (Hunter was on the team last year, I think Pierson makes it this year) it's hard to account for an extra man coming in the middle, particularly when it's well disguised. On offense we throw the ball a lot, but it hasn't been particularly well until Pachall returned and then the o-line hasn't been able to keep him from being killed (he was hit over 30 times against West Virginia, an absolute nightmare). Be concerned if we start running the ball a lot, but don't be too concerned because we're ten games into this damn season and we haven't done it yet.</p>
<p><b>Jon</b>: <i>TCU's boss against the run, so I imagine you're not exactly worried about <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134219/daniel-sams">Daniel Sams</a> busting loose for two bills or <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/76559/john-hubert">John Hubert</a> popping a buck fifty in the first half. What DOES concern you about Saturday's game?</i></p>
<p><b>HF</b>: I worry about the same thing I worry about every game this season- where are the points going to come from, and is the defense going to hold up? Those concerns are magnified this week, as Kansas State's running offense is good enough where it's not going to be entirely shut down, and TCU is going to throw the ball an incredibly stupid number of times and spend a whole lot of time on the sidelines whether it's successful passing or not. I'm concerned that the defense is going to be ground down to dust by late in the third quarter like they were against LSU (where thanks to a fumbled kickoff the Tigers had the ball twice before our offense took the field) and the three or four yard gains start to turn into five or six yard gains until someone busts a big run to turn a close game into a rout. I've seen it happen against much worse teams than KSU, so here I'm terrified of it.</p>
<p><b>Jon</b>: <i>Finally, you know the drill. Tell me what's going to happen in Manhattan.</i></p>
<p><b>HF</b>: If TCU is going to win this game they're going to have to win it like we won against Texas last year, by shortening the game with the run, converting third and short-medium with regularity and keeping the defense fresh enough to put on an absolutely dominant performance. This is not going to happen. Instead Casey will throw the ball about 37 times, have a decent completion percentage but stall out on a lot of third downs and Kansas State will wear the TCU defense down to turn a competitive first half into a comfortable victory by the end. KSU 27, TCU 13.</p>
<p><i>As always, a huge thank you HawkeyedFrog for some great answers... and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.frogsowar.com/2013/11/14/5103448/six-shooter-six-questions-with-bring-on-the-cats">some great questions, too.</a></i></p>
https://www.bringonthecats.com/2013/11/14/5101738/k-state-q-a-texas-christianJon Morse2013-11-10T09:43:46-06:002013-11-10T09:43:46-06:00Week 12 poll:
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9LZsPU0Sh8rPmXiAJ1lNt6IIGsM=/284x0:3714x2287/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/22867459/20131012_jla_al2_320.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Team Purple battle this week as TCU visits Manhattan. Should be a good game. The Cats will need to continue to execute in an excellent manner to win this game. Dumb mistakes will cause a loss. Dumb playing calling will cause a loss.</p> <p>The results of the polls so far:</p>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="10" align="center">2013 Regular Season Schedule<br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>date</td>
<td>Opponent</td>
<td colspan="2" align="center">Preseason<br>Poll</td>
<td align="center">Result</td>
<td colspan="5" align="center">Weekly Poll</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td>Win</td>
<td>Lose</td>
<td></td>
<td align="center">L > 7</td>
<td align="center">L ≤ 7</td>
<td align="center">Tie</td>
<td align="center">W ≤ 7</td>
<td align="center">W > 7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8/30/13 7:30 p.m. <br>
</td>
<td>North Dakota State</td>
<td align="right">134</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="red">9</font></b></td>
<td cellpadding="5" align="right">L 24-21</td>
<td align="right">4</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="red">6</font></b></td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">28</td>
<td align="right">153</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9/7/13 5:30 p.m.</td>
<td>Louisiana-Lafayette</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">141</font></b></td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">W 27-48</td>
<td align="right">12</td>
<td align="right">16</td>
<td align="right">3</td>
<td align="right">42</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">95</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9/14/13 6:00 p.m.</td>
<td>Massachusetts</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">142</font></b></td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">W 7-37</td>
<td align="right">5</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">3</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">123</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9/21/13</td>
<td>@Texas</td>
<td align="right">69</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="red">19</font></b></td>
<td align="right">L 21-31</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="red">7</font></b></td>
<td align="right">16</td>
<td align="right">7</td>
<td align="right">91</td>
<td align="right">84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10/5/13</td>
<td>@O-State</td>
<td align="right">26</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">62</font></b></td>
<td align="right">L 29-33</td>
<td align="right">47</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="red">18</font></b></td>
<td align="right">3</td>
<td align="right">35</td>
<td align="right">11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10/12/13</td>
<td>Baylor</td>
<td align="right">77</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="red">11</font></b></td>
<td align="right">L 35 - 25</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">271</font></b></td>
<td align="right">3</td>
<td align="right">5</td>
<td align="right">9</td>
<td align="right">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10/19/13</td>
<td>bye</td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10/26/13</td>
<td>West Virginia</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">88</font></b></td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">W 12 - 35</td>
<td align="right">7</td>
<td align="right">5</td>
<td align="right">7</td>
<td align="right">36</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">72</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11/2/13</td>
<td>Iowa State</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">88</font></b></td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">W 7 - 41</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">23</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">86</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11/9/13</td>
<td>@Texas Tech</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">71</font></b></td>
<td align="right">19</td>
<td align="right">W 49 - 26</td>
<td align="right">32</td>
<td align="right">23</td>
<td align="right">6</td>
<td align="right">94</td>
<td align="right"><b><font color="green">28</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11/16/13</td>
<td>TCU</td>
<td align="right">41</td>
<td align="right">20</td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11/23/13</td>
<td>Oklahoma</td>
<td align="right">34</td>
<td align="right">27</td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11/30/13</td>
<td>@Kansas</td>
<td align="right">60</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
<td align="right"></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>The preseason poll is 6-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 6-3.</p>
<p>Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.</p>
<p>The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:</p>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td colspan="3" align="center">PW%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Team</td>
<td>All</td>
<td>Conference</td>
<td>Non-Conference</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Baylor</td>
<td align="center">.9632</td>
<td align="center">.9192</td>
<td align="center">.9947</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Iowa State</td>
<td align="center">.2255</td>
<td align="center">.1406</td>
<td align="center">.5229</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas</td>
<td align="center">.1493</td>
<td align="center">.0713</td>
<td align="center">.6221</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas State</td>
<td align="center">.7280</td>
<td align="center">.6854</td>
<td align="center">.8068</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oklahoma</td>
<td align="center">.6750</td>
<td align="center">.4592</td>
<td align="center">.9272</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oklahoma State</td>
<td align="center">.8484</td>
<td align="center">.7765</td>
<td align="center">.9449</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas</td>
<td align="center">.6881</td>
<td align="center">.7537</td>
<td align="center">.5556</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>TCU</td>
<td align="center">.5077</td>
<td align="center">.3381</td>
<td align="center">.7505</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas Tech</td>
<td align="center">.6894</td>
<td align="center">.5403</td>
<td align="center">.9377</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>West Virginia</td>
<td align="center">.3695</td>
<td align="center">.3248</td>
<td align="center">.5376</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.</p>
<p>This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: Baylor, O-State, Texas, K-State, Tech, OU, WVU, TCU, I-State and KU.</p>
<p>In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:</p>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td colspan="4">All games</td>
<td rowspan="12"></td>
<td colspan="4">Conf games</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Team</td>
<td>PY/A</td>
<td>DPY/A</td>
<td>RY/A</td>
<td>DRY/A</td>
<td>PY/A</td>
<td>DPY/A</td>
<td>RY/A</td>
<td>DRY/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Baylor</td>
<td>12.69</td>
<td>5.63</td>
<td>6.03</td>
<td>3.00</td>
<td>11.41</td>
<td>5.26</td>
<td>5.72</td>
<td>3.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Iowa State</td>
<td>5.66</td>
<td>7.11</td>
<td>3.29</td>
<td>4.94</td>
<td>5.09</td>
<td>7.29</td>
<td>3.14</td>
<td>5.20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas</td>
<td>5.52</td>
<td>6.81</td>
<td>3.52</td>
<td>4.75</td>
<td>5.30</td>
<td>7.78</td>
<td>3.18</td>
<td>4.71</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>K-State</td>
<td>9.11</td>
<td>6.34</td>
<td>4.82</td>
<td>3.90</td>
<td>8.89</td>
<td>6.54</td>
<td>4.79</td>
<td>3.69</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oklahoma</td>
<td>6.71</td>
<td>5.88</td>
<td>4.98</td>
<td>4.29</td>
<td>6.11</td>
<td>6.49</td>
<td>4.86</td>
<td>4.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>O-State</td>
<td>6.95</td>
<td>5.78</td>
<td>4.45</td>
<td>3.46</td>
<td>6.28</td>
<td>5.77</td>
<td>4.29</td>
<td>3.47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas</td>
<td>7.18</td>
<td>6.67</td>
<td>4.54</td>
<td>4.35</td>
<td>6.80</td>
<td>7.33</td>
<td>4.25</td>
<td>3.25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>TCU</td>
<td>6.44</td>
<td>6.50</td>
<td>3.55</td>
<td>3.24</td>
<td>6.14</td>
<td>6.44</td>
<td>3.40</td>
<td>3.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas Tech</td>
<td>7.20</td>
<td>6.07</td>
<td>3.76</td>
<td>4.19</td>
<td>6.90</td>
<td>6.18</td>
<td>3.60</td>
<td>4.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>West Virginia</td>
<td>6.62</td>
<td>7.91</td>
<td>3.24</td>
<td>4.20</td>
<td>6.40</td>
<td>8.13</td>
<td>2.79</td>
<td>4.54</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while Baylor continues to have the best pass defense.</p>
<p>K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A. The Cats are 6th in DPY/A and 5th best DRY/A.</p>
<p>The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):</p>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Team</td>
<td>
<p>Bowl<br>Prediction</p>
</td>
<td>Conf<br>Record</td>
<td>11/16</td>
<td>11/23</td>
<td>11/30</td>
<td>12/7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Baylor</td>
<td>Fiesta</td>
<td>5-0</td>
<td><font color="orange">TXT</font></td>
<td><font color="red">@OSU</font></td>
<td><font color="green">@TCU</font></td>
<td><font color="red">TX</font></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Iowa State</td>
<td>n/a</td>
<td>0-6</td>
<td><font color="orange">@OU</font></td>
<td>KU</td>
<td><font color="green">@WVU</font></td>
<td><br></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas</td>
<td>n/a<br>
</td>
<td>0-6</td>
<td><font color="green">WVU</font></td>
<td><font color="green">@ISU</font></td>
<td><font color="orange">KSU</font></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kansas State</td>
<td>need 1 win<br>
</td>
<td>3-3</td>
<td><font color="green">TCU</font></td>
<td><font color="orange">OU</font></td>
<td>@KU</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oklahoma</td>
<td>BWW</td>
<td>4-2</td>
<td><font color="green">ISU</font></td>
<td><font color="orange">@KSU</font></td>
<td></td>
<td><font color="red">@OSU</font></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oklahoma State</td>
<td>Alamo</td>
<td>5-1</td>
<td><font color="red">@TX</font></td>
<td><font color="red">Baylor </font></td>
<td></td>
<td><font color="orange">OU</font></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas</td>
<td>Cotton</td>
<td>6-0</td>
<td><font color="red">OSU</font></td>
<td></td>
<td><font color="orange">TXT</font></td>
<td><font color="red">@Baylor</font></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>TCU</td>
<td>need 2 wins<br>
</td>
<td>2-5</td>
<td><font color="orange">@KSU</font></td>
<td></td>
<td><font color="red">Baylor</font></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas Tech</td>
<td>Holiday</td>
<td>4-3</td>
<td><font color="red">Baylor</font></td>
<td></td>
<td><font color="red">@TX</font></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>West Virginia</td>
<td>need 2 wins <br>
</td>
<td>2-5</td>
<td>@KU</td>
<td><br></td>
<td><font color="green">ISU</font></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Using the conference predicted winning percentages (which is fairly accurate) rankings, the toughest remaining schedule belongs to Texas followed by Tech, O-State, Baylor and TCU. The sixth toughest schedule is OU, while K-State, Kansas, I-State and WVU have the easiest schedules.</p>
<p>What to expect based on the numbers:<br>Conference PW% says K-State should win against TCU, OU and Kansas, with OU being the closest game.<br>Yds/Attempt says close games against TCU and OU while not so close over KU.</p>
<p>TCU has excellent rush defense and a decent pass defense. Offensively TCU is in the bottom half of the conference. K-State has good rushing and passing (per attempt) but lags in the defensive area. Is this a function of who the teams have played? Guess everyone will see if good D matters more than good O or vice versa.</p>
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