Kanas State Basketball: TCU Preview

#11 Kansas State(15-1, Big12 4-0) vs #17 TCU (13-3, Big12 2-2)

TCU Roster

TCU on Offense

The Horned Frogs are a decent, but not great, squad on offense. Their 109.8 adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) puts them in the upper quarter of teams at 67th nationally. They play up-tempo with an adjusted tempo of 70.5 (53rd nationally) and an average possession length of 15.8 seconds(30th). The Horned Frogs want to get up and go. For comparison, they play slightly faster than Texas on offense.

Their 50.4%(166th) effective field goal percentage puts them close to the middle of the national pack. That number gets held down by their horrendous outside shooting. Jamie Dixon’s squad is shooting a frigid 29.6%(325th) from deep. They shoot a much more respectable 53.9%(71st) from inside the arch. I expect the ‘Cats to invite them to shoot early and often from 3.

One place they excel is stealing extra possessions. They don’t turn the ball over much, with a 16.5%(45th) turnover percentage and are tough on the offensive glass with a 35.1%(23rd) offensive rebounding percentage. One way teams make up for bad shooting is getting more shots up, and that’s TCU’s strategy. They might not hit a high percentage, but they try to balance that out by getting more shots.

It’s the Mike Mills show on offense. He leads the team in scoring at 19.5 points a game, despite only shooting 31% from deep. Mills makes up for his janky 3 point shot by driving the ball, drawing fouls, and getting 3 points plays the old fashioned way. He draws 6.6 fouls per 40 minutes, good for 25th in the nation. He has attempted 100 free throws this season, Chuck O’Bannon and Damion Baugh has attempted the second most on the team with 43 apiece. That worries me. It will be interesting to see who draws this assignment, normally Markquis draws the smaller of the two starting guards, but he’s so incredibly important to the offense, sticking him on a foul drawing magnet may not be the best choice.

On the inside, Eddie Lampkin is massive, but TCU uses him more as a screener and offensive rebounder than a post player. They’ll play 4 around 1 and use Lampkin as a brick wall screener inside the arc. He’ll occasionally crush a defender. The Horned Frogs will toss it underneath if a team switches a perimeter player onto Lampkin off a screen. Otherwise, look for him to spend his time trying to establish offensive rebounding position. The Wildcat bigs are in for a tough afternoon if they don’t do their work early on Lampkin. If he sets up on the low block, he’s impossible to move and his massive frame creates offensive rebounding opportunities, even if he’s being boxed out.

TCU on Defense

Jamie Dixon’s squad hands their hat (do frogs wear hats?) on defense. Their adjusted efficiency of 93.7 is 25th in the nation. They make teams work on offense, their 18 second average possession length on defense ranks 253rd in the nation. The mostly play half court, man to man defense.

They use their length to bother perimeter shooters. Teams are only shooting 29.6% (30th) from 3. Opponents are having better luck inside, shooting 46.4%(61st) from inside the arc. They also thrive on turnovers. 23.6%(22nd) of opponents possessions end in turnovers. Against Texas, they came out super aggressive on the perimeter to start the game, and forced several live ball turnovers that resulted in layup opportunities before Marcus Carr and company settled down.

One place Kansas State can exploit TCU is on the offensive boards. They give up offensive rebounds on 30%(258th) of their opponents missed shots. The ‘Cats are a solid offensive rebounding team, look for Nae’Qwan and Iyiola to hit the offensive glass hard and steal a few points off an otherwise stingy TCU defense.

X-Factor - Live Ball Turnovers

TCU is better in transition than in the half court. They thrive on finding open looks in transition. Kansas State can’t let that happen. The Horned Frogs need to find easy buckets, because they’re not good in the half-court. Shot clock violations, offensive fouls and balls out of bounds don’t hurt much, but steals are killers against TCU. Markquis, Cam, and Desi need to be sure of their handles, because TCU loves to poke at the ball.

If K-State takes care of the ball, I don’t see TCU scoring enough to win this game.

Prediction

KenPom

TCU - 74

Kansas State - 72

Confidence 43%

Drew

TCU - 77

Kanas State - 85

I like K-State in this match-up. TCU likes to play fast, and as you saw against Texas, you don’t want to play fast with Kansas State. The Horned Frogs will score more points than they normally do, but like Texas, will hemorrhage points in transition.