Don't Bet On It: K-State's Over/Under Is 7

Think you know something the average sports bettor doesn't as it regards K-State football next season? Here's your chance to prove it.

Sports book 5Dimes released its preseason college football win totals this week. It sets the over/under for K-State at a nice round seven wins.

Most K-State fans, including me, would be happy with a push, and thrilled with the over. After three non-conference rummies, the Wildcats run an October and early-November gauntlet that includes last season's Big 12 co-champions (TCU and Baylor), the Oklahoma Sooners, and trips to Austin and Stillwater.

Get one in that gauntlet, and the over comes into play. K-State finishes the season with Texas Tech (O/U 6), Iowa State (O/U 3), KU (O/U 1.5) (!), and West Virginia (O/U 8). The ostensible toughest game of the closing stretch, against West Virginia, is in Manhattan. You may also notice that the Mountaineers' line is heavily juiced (-180) to the under.

Unsurprisingly, TCU and Baylor enter the season with the highest win totals (both at 10), with Oklahoma next at nine.  West Virginia surprisingly is next at eight, followed by the Wildcats and Oklahoma State at seven apiece. The book is still bullish on Texas at 6.5, and Texas Tech checks in at the bare minimum for bowl eligibility. Iowa State and KU bring up the rear.

What would I play? Preseason win totals are generally suckers bets, especially this long before the season. The under on West Virginia is probably correct, but it doesn't pay well for the risk. Texas at +155 on a 6.5 win total looks like the best value to me. If you want to profit off potential KU misery, then an under on their 1.5 win total is priced at +180.

But as the Mayor used to say, don't bet on it!!!