College Football Transitivity Rankings and Awards - Week 14

Welcome back to the Transitivity Rankings, where we rank all of FBS via the transitive argument, considering only who has beaten whom. An explanation of the method can be found here. Once you've familiarized yourself with the process, check out this week's rankings and analysis below:

Combined Transitivity Rankings - Week 14

Rank	Team	Change	Avg Rank	Win Rank	Loss Rank	Num Win Paths	Avg Win Path	Num Loss Paths	Avg Loss Path	FBS Wins	FBS Losses
1	Florida State	-	1.0	1	1	127	2.95	0	NaN	11	0
2	Alabama	1	5.0	7	3	126	3.06	122	6.80	10	1
3	Mississippi	1	7.5	6	9	126	3.05	122	5.82	8	3
4	Auburn	2	8.5	3	14	126	3.01	122	5.40	7	4
5	LSU	-	9.0	8	10	126	3.07	122	5.81	7	4
6	Oregon	4	9.5	13	6	126	3.19	122	6.37	10	1
7	Mississippi State	-	11.5	19	4	126	3.30	122	6.79	9	2
8	UCLA	3	12.0	11	13	126	3.13	122	5.41	9	3
9	Georgia	2	12.5	2	23	126	2.98	122	4.88	8	3
10	Oklahoma	2	14.5	24	5	126	3.37	122	6.39	8	3
11	Michigan State	4	16.0	15	17	126	3.20	122	5.23	9	2
12	Clemson	20	16.5	17	16	126	3.23	122	5.25	8	3
12	Georgia Tech	21	16.5	4	29	126	3.02	122	4.66	9	2
14	Nebraska	2	17.0	12	22	126	3.18	122	4.99	8	3
15	Arkansas	6	18.5	13	24	126	3.19	122	4.86	5	6
16	Utah	3	19.5	18	21	126	3.29	122	5.01	7	4
17	TCU	4	20.5	39	2	126	3.52	122	7.07	9	1
17	Texas A&M	3	20.5	22	19	126	3.35	122	5.06	6	5
19	Arizona State	2	21.5	31	12	126	3.44	122	5.43	8	3
20	Louisville	7	23.5	15	32	126	3.20	122	4.62	8	3
20	Ohio State	1	23.5	9	38	126	3.11	122	4.48	11	1
22	Arizona	2	24.0	33	15	126	3.44	122	5.39	10	2
23	Wisconsin	-	27.0	23	31	126	3.36	122	4.63	9	2
24	Notre Dame	2	27.5	5	50	126	3.03	122	4.23	7	5
25	Baylor	2	29.5	52	7	126	3.71	122	6.08	9	1
25	Kansas State	4	29.5	51	8	126	3.70	122	6.06	8	2
25	Missouri	6	29.5	10	49	126	3.12	122	4.24	9	2
28	Iowa	1	31.0	27	35	126	3.42	122	4.54	6	5
29	South Carolina	11	33.0	33	33	126	3.44	122	4.61	5	6
29	USC	21	33.0	27	39	126	3.42	122	4.48	8	4
31	Boise State	8	34.5	40	29	126	3.55	122	4.66	10	2
31	Washington	3	34.5	58	11	126	3.80	122	5.57	7	5
33	Tennessee	1	36.5	45	28	126	3.58	122	4.73	5	6
34	Colorado State	9	37.0	48	26	126	3.63	122	4.84	9	2
34	Florida	6	37.0	49	25	126	3.66	122	4.85	5	5
34	Rutgers	6	37.0	33	41	126	3.44	122	4.44	6	5
34	Stanford	12	37.0	47	27	126	3.61	122	4.78	6	5
34	West Virginia	2	37.0	56	18	126	3.78	122	5.10	6	5
39	Minnesota	10	41.5	36	47	126	3.46	122	4.28	7	4
40	Penn State	4	42.0	27	57	126	3.42	122	4.07	6	6
41	Duke	12	42.5	30	55	126	3.43	122	4.14	8	3
42	Maryland	-	43.5	43	44	126	3.56	122	4.37	6	5
43	North Carolina State	11	44.0	46	42	126	3.59	122	4.43	6	5
44	BYU	14	46.0	20	72	126	3.33	122	3.80	7	4
45	Boston College	2	47.0	25	69	126	3.39	122	3.87	6	5
45	Michigan	7	47.0	40	54	126	3.55	122	4.16	5	7
47	Illinois	2	48.5	31	66	126	3.44	122	3.91	5	6
48	Oklahoma State	4	49.5	79	20	126	4.40	122	5.04	4	6
49	North Carolina	19	51.0	26	76	126	3.41	122	3.70	5	6
50	Utah State	2	52.5	44	61	126	3.56	122	4.06	8	4
51	Iowa State	5	53.0	70	36	126	4.23	122	4.51	2	8
51	Northwestern	6	53.0	36	70	126	3.46	122	3.81	4	7
51	Oregon State	-	53.0	67	39	126	4.16	122	4.48	4	7
54	Nevada	-	54.0	55	53	126	3.75	122	4.17	6	5
55	Kentucky	14	55.0	65	45	126	4.10	122	4.36	4	7
55	Texas	3	55.0	64	46	126	4.09	122	4.30	6	6
57	California	20	55.5	60	51	126	3.97	122	4.21	4	7
57	Miami (Fl)	15	55.5	38	73	126	3.50	122	3.79	5	6
59	Marshall	57	56.5	70	43	126	4.23	122	4.39	10	1
59	Virginia Tech	2	56.5	21	92	126	3.34	122	3.51	5	6
61	Texas Tech	5	57.0	80	34	126	4.42	122	4.57	3	8
62	Air Force	2	57.5	50	65	126	3.69	122	3.95	8	3
63	Northern Illinois	5	58.0	60	56	126	3.97	122	4.11	9	2
64	East Carolina	2	60.0	52	68	126	3.71	122	3.88	7	3
65	Cincinnati	2	62.5	63	62	126	4.06	122	4.02	8	3
65	Louisiana Tech	2	62.5	77	48	126	4.34	122	4.25	8	3
67	Washington State	3	63.0	69	57	126	4.18	122	4.07	2	9
68	Virginia	2	64.5	54	75	126	3.75	122	3.76	4	7
69	Memphis	-	68.0	73	63	126	4.27	122	3.99	8	3
70	Indiana	1	71.0	57	85	126	3.79	122	3.57	3	8
71	Pittsburgh	1	71.5	40	103	126	3.55	122	3.34	5	6
72	Central Florida	11	73.5	62	85	126	4.04	122	3.57	7	3
73	UL Lafayette	3	75.0	93	57	126	4.79	122	4.07	7	4
74	Toledo	1	76.0	88	64	126	4.63	122	3.97	7	4
75	Colorado	3	76.5	116	37	126	5.37	122	4.50	2	10
75	Wyoming	4	76.5	75	78	126	4.28	122	3.64	3	8
77	Kansas	3	77.0	102	52	126	4.98	122	4.20	2	9
77	Purdue	6	77.0	72	82	126	4.25	122	3.57	2	9
77	Rice	1	77.0	84	70	126	4.52	122	3.81	7	5
80	San Diego State	3	78.0	82	74	126	4.48	122	3.78	6	5
81	Western Kentucky	-	79.0	59	99	126	3.96	122	3.41	7	5
82	Wake Forest	2	81.0	68	94	126	4.17	122	3.48	2	9
83	Georgia Southern	8	81.5	106	57	126	5.10	122	4.07	8	3
83	UTEP	6	81.5	96	67	126	4.83	122	3.89	7	5
85	Arkansas State	4	82.0	73	91	126	4.27	122	3.52	6	5
86	Bowling Green	8	83.5	65	102	126	4.10	122	3.35	6	5
87	Western Michigan	2	84.5	89	80	126	4.64	122	3.58	7	4
88	Fresno State	-	86.0	83	89	126	4.48	122	3.54	5	6
89	Syracuse	3	87.5	93	82	126	4.79	122	3.57	2	9
89	Temple	2	87.5	75	100	126	4.28	122	3.37	4	6
91	Navy	5	90.0	85	95	126	4.55	122	3.43	5	5
91	UAB	4	90.0	91	89	126	4.72	122	3.54	5	6
93	Appalachian State	4	91.0	97	85	126	4.87	122	3.57	6	4
94	UL Monroe	-	92.0	104	80	126	5.03	122	3.58	4	8
95	Texas State	4	93.0	93	93	126	4.79	122	3.50	6	5
96	Central Michigan	1	93.5	86	101	126	4.58	122	3.36	6	5
96	South Alabama	6	93.5	108	79	126	5.13	122	3.61	6	6
98	Akron	7	94.0	78	110	126	4.39	122	3.25	4	7
98	Vanderbilt	5	94.0	111	77	126	5.25	122	3.70	2	9
100	Houston	4	95.0	87	103	126	4.59	122	3.34	6	4
101	Ohio	-	96.0	107	85	126	5.13	122	3.57	5	6
102	Middle Tennessee State	-	97.5	90	105	126	4.71	122	3.29	5	6
103	Old Dominion	-	98.0	99	97	126	4.92	122	3.43	5	6
104	New Mexico	3	98.5	100	97	126	4.94	122	3.43	4	8
104	Southern Miss	1	98.5	115	82	126	5.31	122	3.57	2	9
106	Ball State	4	99.5	81	118	126	4.46	122	2.99	4	6
107	Hawaii	7	102.5	110	95	126	5.23	122	3.43	3	9
108	Florida Atlantic	2	103.5	92	115	126	4.76	122	3.07	3	9
109	UTSA	2	106.5	105	108	126	5.06	122	3.26	4	8
110	San Jose State	1	109.0	111	107	126	5.25	122	3.28	2	9
111	Army	4	109.5	98	121	126	4.87	122	2.88	3	6
112	Buffalo	2	110.0	109	111	126	5.16	122	3.21	3	6
112	Connecticut	-	110.0	103	117	126	5.02	122	3.01	1	9
114	Tulane	3	110.5	113	108	126	5.25	122	3.26	2	8
115	Kent State	7	111.0	100	122	126	4.94	122	2.86	2	9
116	South Florida	1	113.0	121	105	126	5.97	122	3.29	3	8
117	Florida International	-	115.5	118	113	126	5.53	122	3.12	3	7
117	North Texas	5	115.5	119	112	126	5.65	122	3.20	3	8
119	UNLV	1	116.5	117	116	126	5.47	122	3.03	1	11
120	Miami (Oh)	1	117.0	120	114	126	5.67	122	3.07	2	9
121	Massachusetts	1	118.5	114	123	126	5.28	122	2.81	3	9
122	Eastern Michigan	1	120.5	122	119	126	6.14	122	2.95	1	10
123	Tulsa	1	121.5	123	120	126	6.22	122	2.93	2	10
124	Troy	-	124.0	124	124	3	1.00	123	3.49	3	8
125	Idaho	-	125.5	125	126	2	1.50	124	3.02	1	10
126	SMU	-	126.0	127	125	0	NaN	123	2.98	0	11
127	New Mexico State	-	126.5	126	127	1	1.00	125	3.05	1	10
128	Georgia State	-	127.5	127	128	0	NaN	126	3.13	0	11

For the first time in a number of weeks, we see some significant movement in the top 25. Most pronounced is the 57 spot drop suffered by Marshall. The formerly undefeated Herd were number 2 in last week's rankings, but their perch was always precarious as their schedule had not been very strong. After an overtime loss to Western Kentucky, Marshall no longer has that undefeated record to stand on, and their shaky schedule caught up to them.

Clemson and Georgia Tech both picked up wins over their intrastate, interconference rivals with Clemson downing South Carolina and Georgia Tech besting Georgia. South Carolina had been massively overrated in the CTR, which Clemson took advantage of to jump up 20 spots this week (South Carolina, on the other hand, fell 11 spots and out of the top 25). Georgia Tech rode their overtime victory over the Bulldogs to a 21 spot ascent in the CTR, tying Clemson at number 12 in this week's rankings.

In fact, the Clemson and Georgia Tech victories were only half of the four games the ACC stole from their SEC rivals. This development may well explain the SEC's weakened presence in this week's top 10, in particular giving Oregon its season-high CTR rank of recent weeks at number 6. Overall, every team in this week's AP top 25 except CTR 31 Boise State is in the CTR top 25 (which consists of 27 teams this week, due to ties). The exact ordering of the top 25 can vary significantly, however. In particular, AP top 6 teams TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State have been downgraded significantly.

CLUSTER WATCH

As noted above, previously undefeated Marshall entered the cluster (our term for the large mass of teams in the middle of the rankings with the same number of win paths and loss paths) this week. Florida State narrowly escaped the same fate, and must defeat Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship to remain the nation's only super-cluster squad. Meanwhile, the sub-cluster quintet of Troy, Idaho, SMU, New Mexico State, and Georgia State all fell over the weekend. Among them, only SMU has any games remaining, their tilt with two-win UConn representing the final chance for a change in sub-cluster membership this season.

AWARDS

Jekyll and Hyde Award

Description:
For the team whose performances in the WTR and LTR are most divergent. This one's for the team which has experienced the highest highs and the lowest lows. Or perhaps the highest lows and the lowest highs.

Measure:
Largest difference between WTR and LTR.

Winner:
Colorado

Notes:
Now a two-time Jekyll and Hyde Award winner, the Buffaloes likely wouldn't be here if they could have held on in the fourth quarter against Utah. As it stands, the Buffs still have no good wins (WTR 116) but not many bad losses either (LTR 37). This 79 spot difference was enough to hold off second place Virginia Tech, who has a strong WTR of 21 (largely due to an early-season victory over Ohio State) but a bad LTR of 92 (largely due to a late-season loss to Wake Forest), a difference of 71 spots.

Are We There Yet Award

Description:
Not all shortest paths are created equal. Sometimes, teams have to work very hard to claim a win path, meandering tirelessly among the season's results before the path is earned. This one goes to a pair of teams for whom the shortest win path between them is longer than all other shortest paths.

Measure:
Maximum length shortest win path.

Winners:
Eastern Michigan, TCU

Notes:
No tie-breakers necessary this week, as Eastern Michigan's shortest path to TCU is the only shortest path covering 11 or more games. The argument looks like this:

Eastern Michigan > Buffalo > Massachusetts > Kent State > Army > Connecticut > Central Florida > BYU > Texas > West Virginia > Baylor > TCU

Frequent Flyer Award

Description:
If you took all of one team's shortest win paths, and made them actual travel itineraries, for which team would you be making the most stops? To win this one, you need to have a lot of win paths, but you don't want them to be too short.

Measure:
Largest sum of shortest win path lengths.

Winner:
Tulsa

Notes:
The Golden Hurricane's 126 win paths sum to a total of 784 games. This total was enough to hold off Eastern Michigan (126 paths, 774 total games), who has won this award five times in the last six weeks.

Conference Atlas & Coattail-Rider Awards

Description:
There are two awards here, one for the team which does the most to carry its conference's reputation on its shoulders (Atlas), and another for the conference black sheep who most disgraces his comrades (Coattail-Rider).

Measure:
The team whose CTR is highest above/farthest below the average among teams in its conference.

Winner:
Florida State (Atlas), Vanderbilt (Coattails)

Notes:
After seven straight weeks on top, it's time for Marshall to give up the Conference Atlas trophy. In their place comes Florida State, the cream of an otherwise mediocre ACC crop, who came in just decimal places ahead of Boise State. On the other hand, Vanderbilt finished their season with a loss to Tennessee. With no games left to possibly win, it's a safe bet that the Commodores can now hold on to the Coattail Rider trophy for the rest of the season. See the conference-by-conference breakdown below:

Conference	Avg Conference Rank	Atlas	Atlas Rank	Atlas Difference	Coattail Hanger	Coattail Rank	Coattail Difference
AAC	95.45	East Carolina	64	31.45	SMU	126	30.55
ACC	46.36	Florida State	1	45.36	Syracuse	89	42.64
Big 12	40.30	Oklahoma	10	30.30	Kansas	77	36.70
Big Ten	38.64	Michigan State	11	27.64	Purdue	77	38.36
CUSA	93.54	Marshall	59	34.54	Florida International	117	23.46
MAC	100.08	Northern Illinois	63	37.08	Eastern Michigan	122	21.92
MWC	76.17	Boise State	31	45.17	UNLV	119	42.83
Pac-12	34.58	Oregon	6	28.58	Colorado	75	40.42
SEC	24.00	Alabama	2	22.00	Vanderbilt	98	74.00
Sun Belt	102.09	UL Lafayette	73	29.09	Georgia State	128	25.91

We Are Not Impressed Award

Description:
This award goes to the AP top 25 team whose reputation is most at odds with their transitive resume. Whatever human pollsters see in this team, the CTR is not buying the hype.

Measure:
The AP top 25 team whose ranking drops the most when compared to CTR.

Winner:
Baylor

Notes:
The CTR really hasn't liked the Big 12 in recent weeks, and Baylor has been the worst off for it. The Bears check in at number 5 in the AP, but can only manage a tie for 25 in the CTR, a 20 spot difference. Their closest competition in this category is (gasp!) Kansas State (AP 9, CTR 25, difference of 16). Both teams get a chance for a resume improving victory this weekend when they play each other for a share of the conference title.

Desserpmi Ton Era Ew Award

Description:
Like the We Are Not Impressed Award, but opposite. Indeed, the name of this award is "we are not impressed" backwards.

Measure:
The highest CTR among teams receiving no votes in the AP poll.

Winner:
Arkansas

Notes:
Though the SEC love has toned down a bit from last week, the CTR is still giving mid-pack SEC teams more credit than the pollsters. This is particularly true for CTR 15 Arkansas and CTR 17 Texas A&M, neither of which received votes in this week's AP poll.

KANSAS STATE WIN PATHS

For the second week in a row, the Cats have fallen in the CTR despite a victory on the field. A win this coming week at Baylor would almost certainly improve their standing, though probably not enough to equal their AP rank. For that, we likely need a good showing by the conference in its bowl games.

Below is the customary K-State win path diagram (which keeps getting wider and wider), along with the depth list. Thanks for reading, and I'll see you next time.

Click to embiggen. - jeffp171/Bring on the Cats

Level 1: Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, UTEP, West Virginia

Level 2: Baylor, Central Michigan, Iowa, Louisiana Tech, Maryland, Middle Tennessee State, New Mexico State, New Mexico, North Texas, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, Tennessee, Tulsa, Toledo, UTSA

Level 3: Arkansas State, Appalachian State, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia State, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Kent State, Kentucky, UL Lafayette, Massachusetts, Miami (Oh), Michigan, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Purdue, Rice, South Carolina, South Florida, SMU, Syracuse, TCU, Tulane, UAB, UNLV, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, Wyoming

Level 4: Air Force, Akron, Army, Boston College, BYU, Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, Florida, Fresno State, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, UL Monroe, Memphis, Miami (Fl), Minnesota, Missouri, Marshall, Navy, Notre Dame, Rutgers, South Alabama, San Jose State, Temple, Troy, Texas State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wisconsin

Level 5: Arkansas, Auburn, Boise State, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado State, Duke, Georgia Southern, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio State, San Diego State, Stanford, Texas A&M, USC, Virginia, Washington State

Level 6: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Louisville, LSU, Michigan State, Mississippi, Oregon State, UCLA, Utah, Washington

Level 7: Alabama, Arizona State, Mississippi State, Oregon

No Path: Florida State