clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Unboxing the College Football Polls: Week Seven

Wherein we remind you that you should never shake your Christmas presents.

Why, hello Utah. What a nice vertical jump you have.
Why, hello Utah. What a nice vertical jump you have.
Kevork Djansezian

Oh, last week was a disaster. It's Christmas morning, and dad hands you one of your presents, and you decide to try and be clever and funny and shake the box and... oops. Well, kids, it's time to open that box, dump everything out, and see what we're left with.

Last week's destruction resulted in a complete reshuffling of the deck with the exception of two teams. Florida State remains atop the combined poll, and the chaos actually allowed them -- for the first time all season -- to slightly extend their lead over second place. This obviously makes sense. Georgia also remains right where they were after last week, which in the context of everything that happened is simply a remarkable feat.

As always, the explanation for our methodology is located way back in our week one article. We should also note that once again, the coaches poll was missing a ballot. That means that while our PPB figures account for this, in terms of raw point totals a small loss in points in the coaches poll may actually indicate an increase in support for a team, and that effect is stronger toward the top of the poll than the bottom. Having said that, this week such distinctions are hardly relevant. To get to a point where the missing ballot could even possibly account for a delta change from positive to negative, you have to go all the way down to the high 30s... at which point it's still irrelevant because we're talking about teams that might, if they were lucky, have received a couple of extra points from that missing vote.

And now, the magic table:

TEAM AP COACHES RK 1st PPB LW +/- PPBLW +/-
Florida State 1 1 1 79 24.511 1 0 23.639 0.872
Auburn 2 2 2 39 24.265 5 3 21.181 3.084
Baylor 5 3 3 1 21.729 7 4 19.180 2.549
Mississippi 3 4 4 21.721 11 7 14.865 6.857
Mississippi State 3 6 5 2 21.139 13 8 12.776 8.363
Notre Dame 6 5 6 20.285 8 2 16.745 3.540
Alabama 7 7 7 17.563 2 -5 23.470 -5.907
Michigan State 8 8 8 16.880 10 2 15.730 1.150
Texas Christian 9 12 9 15.248 26 17 1.602 13.647
Oklahoma 11 9 10 15.148 4 -6 22.937 -7.789
Oregon 12 11 11 14.752 3 -8 23.055 -8.303
Georgia 13 10 12 14.477 12 0 13.212 1.265
Arizona 10 13 13 14.015 29 16 0.834 13.181
Texas A&M 14 14 14 11.879 6 -8 19.502 -7.623
Ohio State 15 15 15 9.737 20 5 6.306 3.431
Kansas State 17 16 16 8.698 22 6 3.840 4.857
Oklahoma State 16 18 17 8.318 23 6 3.792 4.526
UCLA 18 17 18 7.792 9 -9 16.246 -8.454
East Carolina 19 19 19 6.563 21 2 4.031 2.532
Arizona State 20 20 20 5.610 24 4 2.002 3.608
Nebraska 21 21 21 4.498 17 -4 8.216 -3.719
Georgia Tech 22 23 22 3.926 31 9 0.623 3.303
Missouri 23 24 23 3.258 25 2 1.878 1.381
Stanford 25 22 24 3.167 14 -10 11.286 -8.119
Utah 24 27 25 2.372 46 21 0.000 2.372
Clemson 26 25 26 1.898 28 2 1.087 0.811
Marshall 27 26 27 1.453 30 3 0.728 0.725
Louisiana State 30 28 28 0.906 15 -13 10.034 -9.127
Southern California 28 31 29 0.738 18 -11 7.828 -7.090
Louisville 29 29 30 0.595 34 4 0.098 0.497
Wisconsin 34 29 31 0.353 16 -15 8.788 -8.435
Brigham Young 31 32 32 0.348 19 -13 7.565 -7.217
West Virginia 32 37 33 0.216 32 -1 0.208 0.008
Arkansas 33 38 34 0.166 33 -1 0.190 -0.024
Kentucky 37 36 35 0.123 46 11 0.000 0.123
Minnesota 40 33 36 0.123 40 4 0.024 0.099
Washington 43 34 37 0.098 35 -2 0.097 0.001
Duke 43 34 37 0.098 36 -1 0.056 0.042
California 35 41 39 0.083 46 7 0.000 0.083
Penn State 36 42 40 0.066 46 6 0.000 0.066
Rutgers 37 43 41 0.050 46 5 0.000 0.050
Iowa 43 38 42 0.049 40 -2 0.024 0.025
Memphis 43 40 43 0.041 46 3 0.000 0.041
North Dakota State 39 44 44 0.025 39 -5 0.025 0.000
South Carolina 41 44 45 0.008 27 -18 1.170 -1.161
Virginia 41 44 45 0.008 42 -3 0.008 0.000
North Carolina 43 44 47 0.000 37 -10 0.056 -0.056
Maryland 43 44 47 0.000 38 -9 0.042 -0.042
North Carolina State 43 44 47 0.000 42 -5 0.008 -0.008
Cincinnati 43 44 47 0.000 44 -3 0.008 -0.008
Texas 43 44 47 0.000 44 -3 0.008 -0.008

Where the real damage was done

As noted, Florida State remains on top and got a little breathing room. What's most important here this week is that instead of four teams fighting over number one, we're down to two. Auburn is only a quarter of a point back of the Seminoles, but there's a 2.5 point gap between Auburn and the next group, even though Baylor and Mississippi State each received first-place votes. Baylor, across all 121 ballots, received exactly two more points than Ole Miss, and therefore claim third place in our combined poll by a mere .008 PPB. Mississippi State lags back a bit despite being dead even with Ole Miss in the AP poll thanks to the coaches very clearly and indisputably having Baylor and Ole Miss 3-4 with the Bulldogs actually in 6th.

Indeed, the top six in the coaches' poll are all properly separated; it's just that Notre Dame's gotten in the way. We have to include the Irish in the top group now as a result. They sit a little under one full PPB back of CLANGA.

Where the losers went

There's a 2.5 PPB drop from the Irish to the first of our former contenders. Alabama's fall was less precipitous than their cohorts, and they maintain a stable lead over Michigan State. The Spartans, in turn, have a solid 1.6 PPB lead over suddenly-relevant TCU, with Oklahoma clinging desperately to the frogs' legs. That gap is narrow due to the coaches still having the Sooners three spots higher than their murderers, which is nonsensical but whatever. Still within the margin behind Oklahoma are Oregon, Georgia, and the Pac-12's new darlings Arizona; this group of five teams are only separated by 1.1 PPB in total.

Those who were 4-1, and won

Texas A&M is on an island between groups here, being a full two PPB back of Arizona and two ahead of Ohio State. The Buckeyes, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State were all sucked upward to fill the space left abandoned by the massive losses within the middle of the poll. Another loser breaks up the party at 17, as UCLA landed here; they're followed in relatively even spacing by two more teams which won and advanced, although not as dramatically as K-State and the OSUs: East Carolina, who still managed to gain ground despite a lackluster win over SMU, and Arizona State, who had to rely on a hail mary to escape with a win.

Nebraska's next, sliding four spots after a loss to Sparty -- the smallest drop of any team which lost this weekend. Georgia Tech suddenly appears, having somehow managed to quietly get to 5-0; they are the lowest-ranked unbeaten among the Power 5, and for valid reasons. A win this week over Duke would help legitimize them somewhat. The top 25 wraps up with Missouri and Stanford -- both relatively close to Georgia Tech -- and Utah.

An interesting observation to be made here: while the top 13 are a chaotic mess because the two polls don't seem to agree on much of anything other than Florida State, Alabama, and Sparty, the bottom half of the top 25 actually sees most teams holding the same spot in both polls, and those that don't are only one or two places apart. Notably, both polls agree entirely on the A&M-Ohio State pairing and the ECU-ASU-Nebraska group; what differences remain are the result of Oklahoma State having a much higher level of support in the AP, and some confusion as to what should be done below Nebraska.

There's not much else here

The group of unranked teams which still have at least a half-point per ballot is dwindling rapidly. Clemson, who miss the top 25 by 0.5 PPB, and Marshall, with a solid 1.453 PPB, are hanging in there ready to strike. LSU is still getting just under a point per ballot, with much more support among the coaches than the writers. USC and Louisville complete this group.

After that, we've got the fallen Badgers and Mormons, and then the usual suspects that have been hanging out in the "receiving just a few votes" lobby for awhile now: West Virginia, Arkansas, Minnesota, Washington, Duke, Penn State, Iowa, North Dakota State, and Virginia. They're joined by returning guest stars Rutgers and Memphis, newcomers Kentucky and California, and the winners of this week's award for biggest drop by ordinal position: South Carolina, falling 18 places from 27th to "just got one point" at 45th.

The other awards, and fond farewells

The biggest loss of points from last week belongs to LSU, which shed over nine points per ballot as they fell from 15th to 28th. Oklahoma, A&M, UCLA, Stanford, USC, and BYU all registered losses of over seven PPB. The winner of this week's biggest point increase is TCU, picking up over 13.6 PPB over last week; they just barely beat Arizona, who gained just under 13.2. While those two schools were, respectively, second and third in terms of largest ordinal rise (17 and 16), the biggest gain was made by Utah -- who went from receiving no votes at all in either poll last week to #24 in the AP and #27 in the coaches' poll.

Leaving us this week as a result of receiving no votes at all: North Carolina, North Carolina State, Maryland, Cincinnati, and Texas. We'd like to thank the ACC for playing, and remind them that the best team in North Carolina is one they think beneath them.