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Crowdsourcing 2014 K-State Football: Week One - Stephen F. Austin

The votes are in for the season as a whole, and now it's time to predict what the Cats will do to the Lumberjacks.

I see the guys in black Never Quit chasing Lumberjack receivers.
I see the guys in black Never Quit chasing Lumberjack receivers.
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Spo

SB Nation 2014 College Football Guide

Your votes for the entire season are (mostly*) complete, and it's time to examine just what it all means. Without further ado:

2014 Regular Season Schedule
Date Opponent Preseason
Result Weekly Poll
Win Lose L > 7 L = 7 Tie W = 7 W > 7
8/30/14 6:10 p.m. Stephen F. Austin 379 0
9/6/14 11:00 a.m. @Iowa State 362 17
9/13/14 bye - - - - - - - -
9/18/14 6:30 p.m. Auburn 274 105
9/27/14 Texas-El Paso 170 0
10/4/14 Texas Tech 167 3
10/11/14 bye - - - - - - - -
10/18/14 @Oklahoma 71 99
10/25/14 Texas 149 5
11/1/14 Oklahoma State 146 8
11/8/14 @TCU 149 5
11/15/14 bye - - - - - - - -
11/20/14 6:00 p.m. @West Virginia 190 6
11/29/14 Kansas 192 4
12/6/14 @Baylor 107 89

(* - we say "mostly" because the preseason polls will remain open until Saturday afternoon, so the numbers included here will be slightly different when we crowdsource Iowa State on Monday.)

If you haven't voted in one or more of the polls yet, please do so. We got 379 responses to the poll for the first three games, but less than half of that for the next two and just over half for Sunday's. Let's try and even that out if we can, faithful readers.) On the other hand, we had the same issue last year; 141 people voted in the first poll, while only 61 voted in the last. On the other hand, our worst response this year has already beaten our best response from 2013, so there's that.

Crowdsourcing Part One: SFA, Iowa State, Auburn (379)
Crowdsourcing Part Two: UTEP, Tech, Oklahoma (170)
Crowdsourcing Part Three: Texas, OSU, TCU (154)
Crowdsourcing Part Four: WVU, Kansas, Baylor (196)

So, what we see here is a pretty firm contention on the part of the BotC membership that K-State is going to win at least nine games, and possibly 11. Even the one game that you have picked as a loss thus far, Oklahoma, is almost a toss-up; almost 42% of you have the 'Cats picked to win in Norman, and that's the only hiccup preventing the BotC Crowdsource from picking an unbeaten campaign. Over 70% of you picked K-State to take down Auburn, and while the Baylor voting is close, the Wildcats still hold a 55% edge in your hearts, which in a presidential election usually gets referred to as a landslide.

If the Crowdsource numbers represented K-State's actual probability of winning, they would have a 13% chance to run the table. There would be a 73% chance of going 11-1 with the loss being to either Oklahoma, Auburn, or Baylor. Specifically, you think there's a 31% chance of only losing to OU, a 23% chance of only losing to Baylor, and an 18% chance of only losing to Auburn. On the other side of the coin, you collectively give the Wildcats a 7% chance of losing all three of those games (combined with a 79% chance of winning all nine of the others).

Outside of those three games, you are least optimistic about Oklahoma State: the 'Cats only have a 94.8% chance of winnning that one, according to you lot. Aside from Stephen F. Austin and Texas-El Paso, which are at the moment clean sweeps for K-State (something no game last year accomplished -- even Massachusetts and Kansas each had one person claiming the 'Cats would lose), your most optimistic prediction is, surprisingly, not Kansas (97.9%). No, that distinction belongs to Texas Tech, checking in at 98.2% confidence. I expect this to change if the last three polls come up to Day One levels, being honest with you. And, of course, we'll revisit all this again on Monday when we have the full numbers.

We realize this was a lightning-quick blast through the crowdsource polls, for which we apologize and again exhort you to go vote if you haven't. Despite having a daily countdown to remind us, the season has rushed up on us like a runaway freight train. (Let me put it this way: Kitchen and I were talking last week, and both suddenly realized that we were both thinking Labor Day was a week further away than it really was. What this indicates, probably, is that Kitchen and I are still in high school, trying to deny the end of summer as long as possible.

Anyway, now it's time for you to predict the outcome of the season opener. The mighty Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are coming to town, and we all remember what they did to Virginia Commonwe-- oh, right. That was basketball. Sorry.

Here's yer poll. Click away, faithful readers.