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The results of the polls so far:
2013 Regular Season Schedule |
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date | Opponent | Preseason Poll |
Result | Weekly Poll | |||||
Win | Lose | L > 7 | L ≤ 7 | Tie | W ≤ 7 | W > 7 | |||
8/30/13 7:30 p.m. |
North Dakota State | 134 | 9 | L 24-21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 153 |
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. | Louisiana-Lafayette | 141 | 2 | W 27-48 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 42 | 95 |
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. | Massachusetts | 142 | 1 | W 7-37 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 123 |
9/21/13 | @Texas | 69 | 19 | L 21-31 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 91 | 84 |
10/5/13 | @O-State | 26 | 62 | L 29-33 | 47 | 18 | 3 | 35 | 11 |
10/12/13 | Baylor | 77 | 11 | L 35 - 25 | 271 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
10/19/13 | bye | ||||||||
10/26/13 | West Virginia | 88 | 2 | W 12 - 35 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 72 |
11/2/13 | Iowa State | 88 | 2 | W 7 - 41 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 86 |
11/9/13 | @Texas Tech | 71 | 19 | ||||||
11/16/13 | TCU | 41 | 20 | ||||||
11/23/13 | Oklahoma | 34 | 27 | ||||||
11/30/13 | @Kansas | 60 | 1 |
The preseason poll is 5-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 5-3.
Continuing with the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.
The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:
PW% | |||
Team | All | Conference | Non-Conference |
Baylor | .9645 | .9136 | .9947 |
Iowa State | .2156 | .1228 | .5229 |
Kansas | .1852 | .0906 | .6221 |
Kansas State | .7104 | .6421 | .8068 |
Oklahoma | .7670 | .5941 | .9272 |
Oklahoma State | .8197 | .7056 | .9449 |
Texas | .7053 | .7992 | .5556 |
TCU | .4972 | .2969 | .7505 |
Texas Tech | .7509 | .6153 | .9377 |
West Virginia | .3631 | .3062 | .5376 |
As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.
This PW% is starting to reach accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: Baylor, Texas, O-State, K-State, Texas Tech, OU, WVU, TCU, I-State and KU. K-State, Texas Tech and OU are fairly close together in the numbers, so we might have good games (please see your doctor before viewing).
In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:
All games | Conf games | ||||||||
Team | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | |
Baylor | 13.26 | 5.85 | 6.24 | 3.04 | 12.11 | 5.54 | 5.99 | 3.66 | |
Iowa State | 5.85 | 7.15 | 3.38 | 5.13 | 5.28 | 7.39 | 3.25 | 5.54 | |
Kansas | 5.63 | 6.78 | 3.42 | 4.93 | 5.45 | 7.95 | 2.95 | 4.99 | |
K-State | 9.23 | 6.54 | 4.59 | 3.97 | 9.07 | 6.91 | 4.45 | 3.76 | |
Oklahoma | 7.08 | 5.68 | 5.21 | 4.19 | 6.61 | 6.27 | 5.21 | 4.14 | |
O-State | 6.94 | 5.87 | 4.62 | 3.35 | 6.13 | 5.90 | 4.52 | 3.29 | |
Texas | 7.44 | 6.47 | 4.64 | 4.63 | 7.13 | 7.15 | 4.35 | 3.49 | |
TCU | 6.40 | 6.79 | 3.59 | 3.31 | 6.03 | 6.85 | 3.43 | 3.27 | |
Texas Tech | 6.41 | 6.05 | 3.82 | 3.91 | 7.17 | 6.14 | 3.65 | 4.33 | |
West Virginia | 6.47 | 8.26 | 4.23 | 4.25 | 6.17 | 8.63 | 3.93 | 4.67 |
In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Baylor now leads in passing defense, while TCU has the best rushing defense.
K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 4th in RY/A. The Cats are 6th in DPY/A and 5th best DRY/A.
The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):
Team |
Bowl Prediction |
11/9 | 11/16 | 11/23 | 11/30 | 12/7 |
Baylor | eligible | OU | TXT | @OSU | @TCU | TX |
Iowa State | n/a | TCU | @OU | KU | @WVU | |
Kansas | need 4 wins |
@OSU | WVU | @ISU | KSU | |
Kansas State | need 2 wins |
@TXT | TCU | OU | @KU | |
Oklahoma | eligible | @Baylor | ISU | @KSU | @OSU | |
Oklahoma State | eligible | KU | @TX | Baylor | OU | |
Texas | eligible | @WVU | OSU | TXT | @Baylor | |
TCU | need 3 wins |
@ISU | @KSU | Baylor | ||
Texas Tech | eligible | KSU | Baylor | @TX | ||
West Virginia | need 2 wins |
TX | @KU | ISU |
Using the conference predicted winning percentages (which is almost accurate) rankings, I-State and WVU have the easiest schedules remaining, with K-State having the 3rd easiest schedule and KU in 4th. Texas, OU, O-State and Baylor are the next four, trailed by TCU and the hardest schedule remaining is Texas Tech.