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After a tumultuous period in the late aughts, we seem to have returned to the stasis that was my introduction to the Sunflower Showdown back when I first got to K-State. Football season belongs to the Wildcats, while the winter power goes downriver. Not only that, but this year it looks like K-State basketball may return to a level of general non-competitiveness not seen since Jim Wooldridge roamed the sidelines.
But we can worry about bouncyhoops later. It's still football season for another six weeks or so. In tomorrow's season finale, K-State will look to extend to five its winning streak over in-state rival KU.
Players to Watch
K-State
Passing: Jake Waters, 128-212-8, 2,038 yards, 13 TDs, 9.6 yards/attempt, 185.3 yards/game
Rushing: John Hubert, 152 carries, 748 yards, 4.9 yards/carry, 8 TDs, 68.0 yards/game
Receiving: Tyler Lockett, 68 receptions, 1,103 yards, 16.2 yards/reception, 8 TDs, 110.3 yards/reception
KU
Passing: Montell Cozart, 20-56-1, 214 yards, 0 TDs, 3.8 yards/attempt, 35.7 yards/game
Rushing: James Sims, 208 carries, 1,028 yards, 4.9 yards/carry, 7 TDs, 93.5 yards/game
Receiving: James Sims, 24 receptions, 162 yards, 6.8 yards/reception, 0 TDs, 14.7 yards/game
As you may have surmised if you've followed KU at all this year, Jake Heaps is actually the team's leading passer, and Tony Pierson is the leading receiver. In case Heaps plays, his line for the year is as follows: 114-232-7, 1,276 yards, 5.5 yards/attempt, 7 TDs, 127.6 yards/game.
Pierson is out with a concussion, and behind him, it's difficult to figure out who fills the void. Sims has as many receptions as Pierson but for about half the yards. Brandon Bourbon and Jimmay Mundine have 20 and 17 receptions, respectively.
Interestingly, Hubert is a somewhat under-appreciated -- and the last few games, under-utilized -- aspect of K-State's offense. Sims is generally praised as the lone bright spot for KU's otherwise anemic offense, and he's approximately as good on a per-carry basis as is Hubert.
K-State Advanced Stats
F/+: 25th nationally
S&P+: 26th
Offensive S&P+: 15th
Rushing S&P+: 19th
Passing S&P+: 14th
Standard Downs S&P+: 10th
Passing Downs S&P+: 26th
Drive Efficiency: 16th
Defensive S&P+: 50th
Rushing S&P+: 80th
Passing S&P+: 33rd
Standard Downs S&P+: 59th
Passing Downs S&P+: 30th
Special Teams F/+: 10th
KU Advanced Stats
F/+: 102nd
S&P+: 111th
Offensive S&P+: 120th
Rushing S&P+: 83rd
Passing S&P+: 123rd
Standard Downs S&P+: 107th
Passing Downs S&P+: 114th
Drive Efficiency: 120th
Defensive S&P+: 82nd
Rushing S&P+: 82nd
Passing S&P+: 73rd
Standard Downs S&P+: 88th
Passing Downs S&P+: 57th
Special Teams F/+: 85th
There's not a lot to like about those numbers if you're a KU fan, but there are some relative strengths. The defense is below average, but not significantly so. And if KU can get K-State into Passing Downs, they match up their best defensive situation with K-State's worst offensive situation.
Still, there's a reason why F/+ projects K-State to win by almost 25, with a 97-percent probability of winning. Even though it hasn't been a good season for K-State, and even though K-State isn't dominant in any particular area, and even though it's a "road" game ... KU is just really bad on offense. With Ty Zimmerman out and Cozart in to run the ball at quarterback, there's some level of concern about K-State's rushing defense. But if KU doesn't have any credible passing threat, then the K-State secondary should be able to provide enough run support to prevent sustained drives.
Conclusion: Most of the time, this is an easy K-State win, and possibly even a blowout. But the Wildcats' bugaboo this year has been turnovers, and that's really the only thing that can keep KU in this one. The Jayhawks have forced 22 turnovers on the season, while the Wildcats have given the ball up 22 times. It may take more than two turnovers in this game to keep it close, but I'd rather not find out.
K-State 41, KU 10