/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/23859243/20131123_mjm_bv1_051.0.jpg)
The results of the polls so far:
2013 Regular Season Schedule |
|||||||||
date | Opponent | Preseason Poll |
Result | Weekly Poll | |||||
Win | Lose | L > 7 | L ≤ 7 | Tie | W ≤ 7 | W > 7 | |||
8/30/13 7:30 p.m. |
North Dakota State | 134 | 9 | L 24-21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 153 |
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. | Louisiana-Lafayette | 141 | 2 | W 27-48 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 42 | 95 |
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. | Massachusetts | 142 | 1 | W 7-37 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 123 |
9/21/13 | @Texas | 69 | 19 | L 21-31 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 91 | 84 |
10/5/13 | @O-State | 26 | 62 | L 29-33 | 47 | 18 | 3 | 35 | 11 |
10/12/13 | Baylor | 77 | 11 | L 35 - 25 | 271 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
10/19/13 | bye | ||||||||
10/26/13 | West Virginia | 88 | 2 | W 12 - 35 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 72 |
11/2/13 | Iowa State | 88 | 2 | W 7 - 41 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 86 |
11/9/13 | @Texas Tech | 71 | 19 | W 49 - 26 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 94 | 28 |
11/16/13 | TCU | 41 | 20 | W 31 - 33 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 171 |
11/23/13 | Oklahoma | 34 | 27 | L 41 - 31 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 112 | 66 |
11/30/13 | @Kansas | 60 | 1 |
The preseason poll is 7-4 after this week and the weekly polls are 6.5-4.
Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.
The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:
PW% | |||
Team | All | Conference | Non-Conference |
Baylor | .9171 | .8316 | .9947 |
Iowa State | .2535 | .1852 | .5229 |
Kansas | .1593 | .0925 | .6221 |
Kansas State | .6708 | .6167 | .8068 |
Oklahoma | .7247 | .6059 | .9272 |
Oklahoma State | .8648 | .8225 | .9449 |
Texas | .6258 | .6586 | .5556 |
TCU | .5023 | .3606 | .7505 |
Texas Tech | .6235 | .4729 | .9377 |
West Virginia | .3580 | .3155 | .5376 |
As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.
This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: O-State, Baylor/Texas, OU, K-State, Tech, TCU, WVU, I-State and KU
In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:
All games | Conf games | ||||||||
Team | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | |
Baylor | 11.75 | 6.56 | 5.76 | 3.11 | 10.53 | 6.66 | 5.43 | 3.51 | |
Iowa State | 6.11 | 5.02 | 3.41 | 3.72 | 5.86 | 4.60 | 3.33 | 3.57 | |
Kansas | 5.24 | 7.12 | 3.88 | 4.73 | 4.92 | 8.00 | 3.77 | 4.69 | |
K-State | 9.40 | 6.53 | 4.59 | 4.10 | 9.36 | 6.74 | 4.50 | 4.03 | |
Oklahoma | 6.69 | 6.33 | 5.45 | 3.98 | 6.20 | 6.96 | 5.54 | 3.88 | |
O-State | 7.71 | 5.94 | 4.34 | 3.41 | 7.45 | 5.98 | 4.19 | 3.40 | |
Texas | 6.98 | 6.84 | 4.46 | 4.37 | 6.58 | 7.51 | 4.18 | 3.44 | |
TCU | 6.52 | 6.69 | 3.53 | 3.33 | 6.28 | 6.70 | 3.40 | 3.31 | |
Texas Tech | 7.09 | 6.45 | 3.78 | 4.41 | 6.79 | 6.75 | 3.64 | 4.85 | |
West Virginia | 6.53 | 7.81 | 3.33 | 4.39 | 6.32 | 8.00 | 2.87 | 4.73 |
In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and OU leads in rushing per attempt. Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while I-State has the best pass defense per attempt.
K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A. The Cats are 5th in DPY/A and 7th best DRY/A.
The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):
Team |
Bowl |
Conf Record |
11/30 | 12/7 | ||
Baylor | Alamo |
6-1 | @TCU | TX | ||
Iowa State | n/a | 1-7 | @WVU | |||
Kansas | n/a |
1-7 | KSU | |||
Kansas State | Holiday |
4-4 | @KU |
|||
Oklahoma | BWW | 6-2 | @OSU | |||
Oklahoma State | Fiesta | 7-1 | OU | |||
Texas | Cotton | 6-1 | TXT | @Baylor | ||
TCU | n/a |
2-6 | Baylor | |||
Texas Tech | Texas |
4-4 | @TX | |||
West Virginia | n/a |
2-6 | ISU |
What to expect based on the numbers:
Conference PW% says K-State should win against Kansas.
Yds/Attempt says not so close game over KU.