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The results of the polls so far:
| 2013 Regular Season Schedule |
|||||||||
| date | Opponent | Preseason Poll |
Result | Weekly Poll | |||||
| Win | Lose | L > 7 | L ≤ 7 | Tie | W ≤ 7 | W > 7 | |||
| 8/30/13 7:30 p.m. |
North Dakota State | 134 | 9 | L 24-21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 153 |
| 9/7/13 5:30 p.m. | Louisiana-Lafayette | 141 | 2 | W 27-48 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 42 | 95 |
| 9/14/13 6:00 p.m. | Massachusetts | 142 | 1 | W 7-37 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 123 |
| 9/21/13 | @Texas | 69 | 19 | L 21-31 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 91 | 84 |
| 10/5/13 | @O-State | 26 | 62 | L 29-33 | 47 | 18 | 3 | 35 | 11 |
| 10/12/13 | Baylor | 77 | 11 | L 35 - 25 | 271 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| 10/19/13 | bye | ||||||||
| 10/26/13 | West Virginia | 88 | 2 | W 12 - 35 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 72 |
| 11/2/13 | Iowa State | 88 | 2 | W 7 - 41 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 86 |
| 11/9/13 | @Texas Tech | 71 | 19 | W 49 - 26 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 94 | 28 |
| 11/16/13 | TCU | 41 | 20 | W 31 - 33 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 171 |
| 11/23/13 | Oklahoma | 34 | 27 | ||||||
| 11/30/13 | @Kansas | 60 | 1 | ||||||
The preseason poll is 7-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 6.5-3.
Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.
The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:
| PW% | |||
| Team | All | Conference | Non-Conference |
| Baylor | .9515 | .9021 | .9947 |
| Iowa State | .1927 | .1170 | .5229 |
| Kansas | .1944 | .1190 | .6221 |
| Kansas State | .7086 | .6634 | .8068 |
| Oklahoma | .7333 | .5944 | .9272 |
| Oklahoma State | .8567 | .8008 | .9449 |
| Texas | .6258 | .6586 | .5556 |
| TCU | .5023 | .3606 | .7505 |
| Texas Tech | .6235 | .4729 | .9377 |
| West Virginia | .3580 | .3155 | .5376 |
As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.
This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: Baylor, O-State, K-State, Texas, OU, Tech, TCU, WVU, KU and I-State (sad farmalliance face). Note: K-State won't finish 3rd in the conference since Texas beat us, but it is nice that the Cats are finishing strong in PW%.
In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:
| All games | Conf games | ||||||||
| Team | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | |
| Baylor | 12.48 | 5.68 | 6.02 | 3.08 | 11.31 | 5.43 | 5.76 | 3.54 | |
| Iowa State | 5.62 | 5.15 | 3.27 | 3.67 | 5.11 | 4.73 | 3.13 | 3.50 | |
| Kansas | 5.50 | 6.69 | 3.82 | 4.73 | 5.29 | 7.45 | 3.66 | 4.69 | |
| K-State | 9.08 | 6.44 | 4.78 | 3.85 | 8.88 | 6.64 | 4.74 | 3.65 | |
| Oklahoma | 6.58 | 5.80 | 5.41 | 4.16 | 5.98 | 6.28 | 5.49 | 4.12 | |
| O-State | 7.07 | 5.76 | 4.46 | 3.49 | 6.51 | 5.73 | 4.33 | 3.50 | |
| Texas | 6.98 | 6.84 | 4.46 | 4.37 | 6.58 | 7.51 | 4.18 | 3.44 | |
| TCU | 6.52 | 6.69 | 3.53 | 3.33 | 6.28 | 6.70 | 3.40 | 3.31 | |
| Texas Tech | 7.09 | 6.45 | 3.78 | 4.41 | 6.79 | 6.75 | 3.64 | 4.85 | |
| West Virginia | 6.53 | 7.81 | 3.33 | 4.39 | 6.32 | 8.00 | 2.87 | 4.73 | |
In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while I-State for some reason now has the best pass defense per attempt.
K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A. The Cats are 5th in DPY/A and 6th best DRY/A.
The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):
| Team |
Bowl |
Conf Record |
11/23 | 11/30 | 12/7 | |
| Baylor | Fiesta | 6-0 | @OSU | @TCU | TX | |
| Iowa State | n/a | 0-7 | KU | @WVU | ||
| Kansas | n/a |
1-6 | ISU | KSU | ||
| Kansas State | Holiday |
4-3 | OU | @KU | ||
| Oklahoma | BWW | 5-2 | @KSU | @OSU | ||
| Oklahoma State | Cotton | 6-1 | Baylor | OU | ||
| Texas | Alamo | 6-1 | TXT | @Baylor | ||
| TCU | n/a |
2-6 | Baylor | |||
| Texas Tech | Texas |
4-4 | @TX | |||
| West Virginia | n/a |
2-6 | ISU |
Using the conference predicted winning percentages rankings, the toughest remaining schedule belongs to TCU (they only play Baylor) followed by O-State, OU, Texas, Tech, Baylor, KU, K-State, I-State and WVU.
What to expect based on the numbers:
Conference PW% says K-State should win against OU and Kansas, with OU the pick if all games are used in the PW%. The alumni association needs to offer cardiac insurance for games like this.
Yds/Attempt says close game against OU while not so close over KU, with wins in both games.
The match ups are better for K-State this week as OU is 7th in defending rushing yards/attempt and 4th in dpy/a in league games. K-State is 3rd in rush yards per attempt and 2 in py/a. When K-State is defending in conference games, they are 6th for defending rushing attempts and 5 for pass defense (per attempt) while OU is 2nd in rushing yards per attempt and 8th in pass yards per attempt.
Expect OU to gain yards on the ground and K-State to run with passes to keep them off balance.