The results of the polls so far:
|2013 Regular Season Schedule
|Win||Lose||L > 7||L ≤ 7||Tie||W ≤ 7||W > 7|
|8/30/13 7:30 p.m.
||North Dakota State||134||9||L 24-21||4||6||1||28||153|
|9/7/13 5:30 p.m.||Louisiana-Lafayette||141||2||W 27-48||12||16||3||42||95|
|9/14/13 6:00 p.m.||Massachusetts||142||1||W 7-37||5||0||1||3||123|
|10/12/13||Baylor||77||11||L 35 - 25||271||3||5||9||6|
|10/26/13||West Virginia||88||2||W 12 - 35||7||5||7||36||72|
|11/2/13||Iowa State||88||2||W 7 - 41||1||2||2||23||86|
|11/9/13||@Texas Tech||71||19||W 49 - 26||32||23||6||94||28|
|11/16/13||TCU||41||20||W 31 - 33||8||11||5||14||171|
The preseason poll is 7-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 6.5-3.
Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.
The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:
As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.
This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: Baylor, O-State, K-State, Texas, OU, Tech, TCU, WVU, KU and I-State (sad farmalliance face). Note: K-State won't finish 3rd in the conference since Texas beat us, but it is nice that the Cats are finishing strong in PW%.
In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:
|All games||Conf games|
In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while I-State for some reason now has the best pass defense per attempt.
K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A. The Cats are 5th in DPY/A and 6th best DRY/A.
The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):
Using the conference predicted winning percentages rankings, the toughest remaining schedule belongs to TCU (they only play Baylor) followed by O-State, OU, Texas, Tech, Baylor, KU, K-State, I-State and WVU.
What to expect based on the numbers:
Conference PW% says K-State should win against OU and Kansas, with OU the pick if all games are used in the PW%. The alumni association needs to offer cardiac insurance for games like this.
Yds/Attempt says close game against OU while not so close over KU, with wins in both games.
The match ups are better for K-State this week as OU is 7th in defending rushing yards/attempt and 4th in dpy/a in league games. K-State is 3rd in rush yards per attempt and 2 in py/a. When K-State is defending in conference games, they are 6th for defending rushing attempts and 5 for pass defense (per attempt) while OU is 2nd in rushing yards per attempt and 8th in pass yards per attempt.
Expect OU to gain yards on the ground and K-State to run with passes to keep them off balance.