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The results of the polls so far:
| 2013 Regular Season Schedule |
|||||||||
| date | Opponent | Preseason Poll |
Result | Weekly Poll | |||||
| Win | Lose | L > 7 | L ≤ 7 | Tie | W ≤ 7 | W > 7 | |||
| 8/30/13 7:30 p.m. |
North Dakota State | 134 | 9 | L 24-21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 153 |
| 9/7/13 5:30 p.m. | Louisiana-Lafayette | 141 | 2 | W 27-48 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 42 | 95 |
| 9/14/13 6:00 p.m. | Massachusetts | 142 | 1 | W 7-37 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 123 |
| 9/21/13 | @Texas | 69 | 19 | L 21-31 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 91 | 84 |
| 10/5/13 | @O-State | 26 | 62 | L 29-33 | 47 | 18 | 3 | 35 | 11 |
| 10/12/13 | Baylor | 77 | 11 | L 35 - 25 | 271 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| 10/19/13 | bye | ||||||||
| 10/26/13 | West Virginia | 88 | 2 | W 12 - 35 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 72 |
| 11/2/13 | Iowa State | 88 | 2 | W 7 - 41 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 86 |
| 11/9/13 | @Texas Tech | 71 | 19 | W 49 - 26 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 94 | 28 |
| 11/16/13 | TCU | 41 | 20 | ||||||
| 11/23/13 | Oklahoma | 34 | 27 | ||||||
| 11/30/13 | @Kansas | 60 | 1 | ||||||
The preseason poll is 6-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 6-3.
Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.
The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:
| PW% | |||
| Team | All | Conference | Non-Conference |
| Baylor | .9632 | .9192 | .9947 |
| Iowa State | .2255 | .1406 | .5229 |
| Kansas | .1493 | .0713 | .6221 |
| Kansas State | .7280 | .6854 | .8068 |
| Oklahoma | .6750 | .4592 | .9272 |
| Oklahoma State | .8484 | .7765 | .9449 |
| Texas | .6881 | .7537 | .5556 |
| TCU | .5077 | .3381 | .7505 |
| Texas Tech | .6894 | .5403 | .9377 |
| West Virginia | .3695 | .3248 | .5376 |
As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.
This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: Baylor, O-State, Texas, K-State, Tech, OU, WVU, TCU, I-State and KU.
In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:
| All games | Conf games | ||||||||
| Team | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | |
| Baylor | 12.69 | 5.63 | 6.03 | 3.00 | 11.41 | 5.26 | 5.72 | 3.48 | |
| Iowa State | 5.66 | 7.11 | 3.29 | 4.94 | 5.09 | 7.29 | 3.14 | 5.20 | |
| Kansas | 5.52 | 6.81 | 3.52 | 4.75 | 5.30 | 7.78 | 3.18 | 4.71 | |
| K-State | 9.11 | 6.34 | 4.82 | 3.90 | 8.89 | 6.54 | 4.79 | 3.69 | |
| Oklahoma | 6.71 | 5.88 | 4.98 | 4.29 | 6.11 | 6.49 | 4.86 | 4.28 | |
| O-State | 6.95 | 5.78 | 4.45 | 3.46 | 6.28 | 5.77 | 4.29 | 3.47 | |
| Texas | 7.18 | 6.67 | 4.54 | 4.35 | 6.80 | 7.33 | 4.25 | 3.25 | |
| TCU | 6.44 | 6.50 | 3.55 | 3.24 | 6.14 | 6.44 | 3.40 | 3.16 | |
| Texas Tech | 7.20 | 6.07 | 3.76 | 4.19 | 6.90 | 6.18 | 3.60 | 4.65 | |
| West Virginia | 6.62 | 7.91 | 3.24 | 4.20 | 6.40 | 8.13 | 2.79 | 4.54 | |
In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while Baylor continues to have the best pass defense.
K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A. The Cats are 6th in DPY/A and 5th best DRY/A.
The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):
| Team |
Bowl |
Conf Record |
11/16 | 11/23 | 11/30 | 12/7 |
| Baylor | Fiesta | 5-0 | TXT | @OSU | @TCU | TX |
| Iowa State | n/a | 0-6 | @OU | KU | @WVU | |
| Kansas | n/a |
0-6 | WVU | @ISU | KSU | |
| Kansas State | need 1 win |
3-3 | TCU | OU | @KU | |
| Oklahoma | BWW | 4-2 | ISU | @KSU | @OSU | |
| Oklahoma State | Alamo | 5-1 | @TX | Baylor | OU | |
| Texas | Cotton | 6-0 | OSU | TXT | @Baylor | |
| TCU | need 2 wins |
2-5 | @KSU | Baylor | ||
| Texas Tech | Holiday | 4-3 | Baylor | @TX | ||
| West Virginia | need 2 wins |
2-5 | @KU | ISU |
Using the conference predicted winning percentages (which is fairly accurate) rankings, the toughest remaining schedule belongs to Texas followed by Tech, O-State, Baylor and TCU. The sixth toughest schedule is OU, while K-State, Kansas, I-State and WVU have the easiest schedules.
What to expect based on the numbers:
Conference PW% says K-State should win against TCU, OU and Kansas, with OU being the closest game.
Yds/Attempt says close games against TCU and OU while not so close over KU.
TCU has excellent rush defense and a decent pass defense. Offensively TCU is in the bottom half of the conference. K-State has good rushing and passing (per attempt) but lags in the defensive area. Is this a function of who the teams have played? Guess everyone will see if good D matters more than good O or vice versa.