The results of the polls so far:
|2013 Regular Season Schedule
|Win||Lose||L > 7||L ≤ 7||Tie||W ≤ 7||W > 7|
|8/30/13 7:30 p.m.
||North Dakota State||134||9||L 24-21||4||6||1||28||153|
|9/7/13 5:30 p.m.||Louisiana-Lafayette||141||2||W 27-48||12||16||3||42||95|
|9/14/13 6:00 p.m.||Massachusetts||142||1||W 7-37||5||0||1||3||123|
|10/12/13||Baylor||77||11||L 35 - 25||271||3||5||9||6|
|10/26/13||West Virginia||88||2||W 12 - 35||7||5||7||36||72|
|11/2/13||Iowa State||88||2||W 7 - 41||1||2||2||23||86|
|11/9/13||@Texas Tech||71||19||W 49 - 26||32||23||6||94||28|
The preseason poll is 6-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 6-3.
Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.
The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:
As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.
This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: Baylor, O-State, Texas, K-State, Tech, OU, WVU, TCU, I-State and KU.
In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:
|All games||Conf games|
In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while Baylor continues to have the best pass defense.
K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A. The Cats are 6th in DPY/A and 5th best DRY/A.
The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):
|Kansas State||need 1 win
|TCU||need 2 wins
|West Virginia||need 2 wins
Using the conference predicted winning percentages (which is fairly accurate) rankings, the toughest remaining schedule belongs to Texas followed by Tech, O-State, Baylor and TCU. The sixth toughest schedule is OU, while K-State, Kansas, I-State and WVU have the easiest schedules.
What to expect based on the numbers:
Conference PW% says K-State should win against TCU, OU and Kansas, with OU being the closest game.
Yds/Attempt says close games against TCU and OU while not so close over KU.
TCU has excellent rush defense and a decent pass defense. Offensively TCU is in the bottom half of the conference. K-State has good rushing and passing (per attempt) but lags in the defensive area. Is this a function of who the teams have played? Guess everyone will see if good D matters more than good O or vice versa.