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The results of the polls so far:
2013 Regular Season Schedule |
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date | Opponent | Preseason Poll |
Result | Weekly Poll | |||||
Win | Lose | L > 7 | L ≤ 7 | Tie | W ≤ 7 | W > 7 | |||
8/30/13 7:30 p.m. |
North Dakota State | 134 | 9 | L 24-21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 153 |
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. | Louisiana-Lafayette | 141 | 2 | W 27-48 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 42 | 95 |
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. | Massachusetts | 142 | 1 | W 7-37 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 123 |
9/21/13 | @Texas | 69 | 19 | L 21-31 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 91 | 84 |
10/5/13 | @O-State | 26 | 62 | L 29-33 | 47 | 18 | 3 | 35 | 11 |
10/12/13 | Baylor | 77 | 11 | L 35 - 25 | 271 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
10/19/13 | bye | ||||||||
10/26/13 | West Virginia | 88 | 2 | ||||||
11/2/13 | Iowa State | 88 | 2 | ||||||
11/9/13 | @Texas Tech | 71 | 19 | ||||||
11/16/13 | TCU | 41 | 20 | ||||||
11/23/13 | Oklahoma | 34 | 27 | ||||||
11/30/13 | @Kansas | 60 | 1 |
The preseason poll is 3-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 3-3.
Continuing with the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.
The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:
PW% | |||
Team | All | Conference | Non-Conference |
Baylor | .9639 | .8903 (1) | .9947 |
Iowa State | .2907 | .1632 (9) | .5229 |
Kansas | .2855 | .1323 (10) | .6221 |
Kansas State | .5835 | .3412 (7) | .8068 |
Oklahoma | .7902 | .5766 (4) | .9272 |
Oklahoma State | .8288 | .5721 (5) | .9449 |
Texas | .6167 | .6822 (3) | .5556 |
TCU | .5893 | .3639 (6) | .7505 |
Texas Tech | .8661 | .7877 (2) | .9377 |
West Virginia | .3860 | .3154 (8) | .5376 |
As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate. The conference schedule is approaching meaningful numbers but still a week to go at least, the problem with small sparse data sets.
In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:
All games | Conf games | ||||||||
Team | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | PY/A | DPY/A | RY/A | DRY/A | |
Baylor | 13.63 | 6.07 | 6.13 | 3.04 | 12.35 | 5.86 | 5.71 | 3.89 | |
Iowa State | 6.41 | 7.30 | 3.38 | 4.81 | 6.05 | 7.73 | 3.16 | 5.20 | |
Kansas | 5.60 | 6.03 | 3.43 | 4.56 | 5.24 | 7.21 | 2.58 | 4.31 | |
K-State | 8.37 | 7.17 | 4.73 | 4.07 | 7.31 | 8.46 | 4.60 | 3.86 | |
Oklahoma | 6.63 | 5.27 | 5.16 | 4.34 | 5.62 | 5.78 | 5.11 | 4.35 | |
O-State | 7.50 | 5.97 | 3.90 | 3.22 | 6.77 | 6.13 | 2.91 | 2.99 | |
Texas | 7.22 | 6.66 | 4.79 | 4.97 | 6.52 | 8.07 | 4.42 | 3.69 | |
TCU | 6.53 | 6.43 | 3.93 | 3.14 | 5.95 | 6.28 | 3.95 | 2.91 | |
Texas Tech | 7.71 | 5.63 | 3.81 | 3.34 | 7.57 | 5.39 | 3.58 | 3.69 | |
West Virginia | 6.49 | 8.11 | 4.32 | 4.55 | 6.07 | 8.60 | 3.96 | 5.29 |
In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Texas Tech now leads in passing defense, while TCU has the best rushing defense.
K-State has the second worst passing defense and a middlin' rush defense (5th in the league) after playing the top passing/rushing team (Baylor), a team having trouble rushing (O-State) and team in the middle of the pack (Texas). The good news is 5 of the last 6 teams K-State plays are in the bottom half of the conference for passing, while the Cats face only OU and WVU in the top 5 of the conference in rushing.
The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):
Team | 10/26 | 11/02 | 11/9 | 11/16 | 11/23 | 11/30 | 12/7 | |
Baylor | @KU | OU | TXT | @OSU | @TCU | TX | ||
Iowa State | OSU | @KSU | TCU | @OU | KU | @WVU | ||
Kansas | Baylor | @TX | @OSU | WVU | @ISU | KSU | ||
Kansas State | WVU | ISU | @TXT | TCU | OU | @KU | ||
Oklahoma | TXT | @Baylor | ISU | @KSU | @OSU | |||
Oklahoma State | @ISU | @TXT | KU | @TX | Baylor | OU | ||
Texas | @TCU | KU | @WVU | OSU | TXT | @Baylor | ||
TCU | TX | WVU | @ISU | @KSU | Baylor | |||
Texas Tech | @OU | OSU | KSU | Baylor | @TX | |||
West Virginia | @KSU | @TCU | TX | @KU | ISU |
Using the conference predicted winning percentages (which is probably not accurate) rankings, WVU and I-State have the easiest schedules remaining, while K-State, TCU and Kansas make up the second tier, followed by Texas and Baylor. Oklahoma and O-State trail Tech who has arguably the toughest schedule remaining.