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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.05.11

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Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.4.2011)


 

Does anyone want to finish in third place?

No sooner did I declare the Big 12 to be separating into tiers than this happened — a muddied middle of nine teams, all within one game of each other in the standings, all vying for the final two byes, all equally incapable of winning on the road just about anywhere.

Perhaps the most surprising of those is Oklahoma, a team I and many others left for dead after its five-game losing streak in November and December. Now the Sooners are the second-hottest team in the league, ripping off four straight, and collecting quality wins over Baylor and Colorado.

Jeff Capel for Big 12 Coach of the Year? We shall see...

Meanwhile, Missouri and Nebraska looked equally awful in what were thought to be winnable road games —and thus failed to eliminate either K-State or Oklahoma State from the race for a bye.

How much crazier is it going to get? Check back in 48 hours...

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 16-0 NCAA 6 2 4 W-7 Kansas USC Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 15-1 NCAA 1 3 2 W-3 Arizona Texas Bill Self
Texas A&M 3 10-6 NCAA 23 37 35 L-2 Missouri Nebraska Mark Turgeon
Colorado 4 8-8 NIT 88 51 53 W-1 Missouri San Francisco Tad Boyle
Missouri 5 8-8 NCAA 31 23 25 L-2 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Baylor 6 7-9 NIT 86 53 54 L-1 Oklahoma State Iowa State Scott Drew
Nebraska 7 7-9 NIT 89 44 51 L-1 Texas A&M Davidson Doc Sadler
Oklahoma State 8 7-9 Bubble 45 78 78 W-1 Missouri Texas Tech Travis Ford
Kansas State 9 6-10 Bubble 38 48 42 W-1 Virginia Tech Colorado Frank Martin
Oklahoma 10 4-12 CBI 111 121 124 W-4 Baylor Chaminade Jeff Capel
Texas Tech 11 4-12 None 154 145 152 L-1 Oklahoma State TCU Pat Knight
Iowa State 12 4-12 NIT 135 72 67 L-5 Baylor Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Colorado and Oklahoma made tiny moves in the projections this week, mainly due to favorable tiebreakers.

Missouri's loss dropped the Tigers into an obscure tie with Colorado, which they lost, but they remained ahead of Baylor due to its own setback in the state of Oklahoma.

The outcome of that latter game simultaneously moved OU back into a tie with Iowa State and Texas Tech, over both of which it currently possesses head-to-head tiebreakers.

Missouri and Texas A&M both experienced across-the-board declines in their computer profiles. Neither was significant enough for me to alter their postseason projections, however, although it would behoove each to win at home today.

Colorado, K-State and Oklahoma State, conversely, received large boosts from their wins at home. That was enough for me to move OSU back onto the bubble, but I'm leaving CU where it is for now because beating ISU impresses no one.

Meanwhile, Baylor and Nebraska followed impressive home wins with duds on the road, and both look like NIT teams to me until they can win at least one significant road game.

Finally, Oklahoma poached Texas Tech's projected CBI bid because 1) of the winning streak, 2) KU hung a meat necklace around Tech and Texas likely will do the same today, 3) I jumped the gun a little last week with Tech, and 4) OU has a better overall record, despite the Chaminade head-scratcher.

GAMER: Now has Kansas winning at Missouri.

Pomeroy: Now has Missouri losing at Kansas State and Texas A&M losing at Colorado.

Sagarin: No changes.

 

Self-Evaluation

OUTLOOK is settling in nicely to a pattern of 4-2 performances. That's not bad, certainly, but in my book, it's still a "D."

Baylor and Nebraska tripped me up this week, proving once again the old adage: Put not your faith in the Muddied Middle on the road. Hopefully, OUTLOOK soon will revert to its old ways (a.k.a. only pick KU and Texas in road games).

Today, it's doing precisely that. Only KU is projected to win away from home, and all three models agree on that much. But if there's going to be one road "upset," my money's on the Cats because ISU is just falling apart right now.

Cumulative pick record: 34-11 (.756)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
01.24-01.26
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
01.29
4-2 (.667)
66 Colorado
70 Baylor
82 Oklahoma
76 I-State (OT)
66 K-State
90 Kansas
58 Missouri
71 Texas
48 A&M
57 Nebraska
74 O-State
75 Tech (OT)
01.31-02.02
4-2 (.667)
69 Texas
49 A&M
88 Kansas
66 Tech
66 Baylor
73 Oklahoma
69 I-State
95 Colorado
53 Nebraska
69 K-State
70 Missouri
76 O-State
02.05
K-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ A&M (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.07-02.09
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Colorado (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.12
K-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.14-02.16
Kansas (GPS)
@ K-State
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.19
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
A&M (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (PS)
@ Tech (G)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska (P)
@ I-State (GS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)