Does anyone want to finish in third place?
No sooner did I declare the Big 12 to be separating into tiers than this happened — a muddied middle of nine teams, all within one game of each other in the standings, all vying for the final two byes, all equally incapable of winning on the road just about anywhere.
Perhaps the most surprising of those is Oklahoma, a team I and many others left for dead after its five-game losing streak in November and December. Now the Sooners are the second-hottest team in the league, ripping off four straight, and collecting quality wins over Baylor and Colorado.
Jeff Capel for Big 12 Coach of the Year? We shall see...
Meanwhile, Missouri and Nebraska looked equally awful in what were thought to be winnable road games —and thus failed to eliminate either K-State or Oklahoma State from the race for a bye.
How much crazier is it going to get? Check back in 48 hours...
| Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Texas | 1 | 16-0 | NCAA | 6 | 2 | 4 | W-7 | Kansas | USC | Rick Barnes |
| Kansas | 2 | 15-1 | NCAA | 1 | 3 | 2 | W-3 | Arizona | Texas | Bill Self |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 10-6 | NCAA | 23 | 37 | 35 | L-2 | Missouri | Nebraska | Mark Turgeon |
| Colorado | 4 | 8-8 | NIT | 88 | 51 | 53 | W-1 | Missouri | San Francisco | Tad Boyle |
| Missouri | 5 | 8-8 | NCAA | 31 | 23 | 25 | L-2 | Vanderbilt | Colorado | Mike Anderson |
| Baylor | 6 | 7-9 | NIT | 86 | 53 | 54 | L-1 | Oklahoma State | Iowa State | Scott Drew |
| Nebraska | 7 | 7-9 | NIT | 89 | 44 | 51 | L-1 | Texas A&M | Davidson | Doc Sadler |
| Oklahoma State | 8 | 7-9 | Bubble | 45 | 78 | 78 | W-1 | Missouri | Texas Tech | Travis Ford |
| Kansas State | 9 | 6-10 | Bubble | 38 | 48 | 42 | W-1 | Virginia Tech | Colorado | Frank Martin |
| Oklahoma | 10 | 4-12 | CBI | 111 | 121 | 124 | W-4 | Baylor | Chaminade | Jeff Capel |
| Texas Tech | 11 | 4-12 | None | 154 | 145 | 152 | L-1 | Oklahoma State | TCU | Pat Knight |
| Iowa State | 12 | 4-12 | NIT | 135 | 72 | 67 | L-5 | Baylor | Texas Tech | Fred Hoiberg |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Discussion
Colorado and Oklahoma made tiny moves in the projections this week, mainly due to favorable tiebreakers.
Missouri's loss dropped the Tigers into an obscure tie with Colorado, which they lost, but they remained ahead of Baylor due to its own setback in the state of Oklahoma.
The outcome of that latter game simultaneously moved OU back into a tie with Iowa State and Texas Tech, over both of which it currently possesses head-to-head tiebreakers.
Missouri and Texas A&M both experienced across-the-board declines in their computer profiles. Neither was significant enough for me to alter their postseason projections, however, although it would behoove each to win at home today.
Colorado, K-State and Oklahoma State, conversely, received large boosts from their wins at home. That was enough for me to move OSU back onto the bubble, but I'm leaving CU where it is for now because beating ISU impresses no one.
Meanwhile, Baylor and Nebraska followed impressive home wins with duds on the road, and both look like NIT teams to me until they can win at least one significant road game.
Finally, Oklahoma poached Texas Tech's projected CBI bid because 1) of the winning streak, 2) KU hung a meat necklace around Tech and Texas likely will do the same today, 3) I jumped the gun a little last week with Tech, and 4) OU has a better overall record, despite the Chaminade head-scratcher.
GAMER: Now has Kansas winning at Missouri.
Pomeroy: Now has Missouri losing at Kansas State and Texas A&M losing at Colorado.
Sagarin: No changes.
Self-Evaluation
OUTLOOK is settling in nicely to a pattern of 4-2 performances. That's not bad, certainly, but in my book, it's still a "D."
Baylor and Nebraska tripped me up this week, proving once again the old adage: Put not your faith in the Muddied Middle on the road. Hopefully, OUTLOOK soon will revert to its old ways (a.k.a. only pick KU and Texas in road games).
Today, it's doing precisely that. Only KU is projected to win away from home, and all three models agree on that much. But if there's going to be one road "upset," my money's on the Cats because ISU is just falling apart right now.
Cumulative pick record: 34-11 (.756)
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (advanced statistical prediction model claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
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S — Sagarin predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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