Well, that made things interesting.
Colorado's upset win over Texas threw all kinds of monkey wrenches into BIG 12 OUTLOOK heading into the final week of conference play.
With the win, the Buffaloes gave hope to the Jayhawks, muddied up the race for the final bye, reignited their bubble hopes and probably raised the inhalation ratio per capita in Boulder to a five-year high. (Yes, pun intended.)
Meanwhile, Baylor's sweep of Texas A&M portends possible trouble ahead for the offensively challenged Aggies and Nebraska's fading NCAA hopes appear to have died on the vine cornstalk.
Follow the jump for the latest aftershocks from Saturday's action.
| Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Texas | 1 | 14-2 | NCAA | 9 | 4 | 4 | L-1 | Kansas | Nebraska | Rick Barnes |
| Kansas | 2 | 14-2 | NCAA | 2 | 3 | 2 | W-3 | Arizona | Kansas State | Bill Self |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 10-6 | NCAA | 29 | 43 | 39 | L-1 | Kansas State | Baylor (2) | Mark Turgeon |
| Kansas State | 4 | 9-7 | NCAA | 25 | 35 | 34 | W-4 | Kansas | Colorado (2) | Frank Martin |
| Colorado | 5 | 8-8 | Bubble | 77 | 59 | 58 | W-2 | Texas | Oklahoma | Tad Boyle |
| Missouri | 6 | 8-8 | NCAA | 28 | 24 | 24 | L-1 | Vanderbilt | Colorado | Mike Anderson |
| Baylor | 7 | 7-9 | NIT | 74 | 61 | 56 | W-1 | Texas A&M (2) | Texas Tech | Scott Drew |
| Nebraska | 8 | 7-9 | NIT | 80 | 45 | 52 | L-2 | Texas | Texas Tech | Doc Sadler |
| Oklahoma State | 9 | 6-10 | NIT | 60 | 86 | 84 | W-1 | Kansas State | Texas Tech | Travis Ford |
| Oklahoma | 10 | 5-11 | None | 132 | 134 | 129 | L-7 | Baylor | Chaminade | Jeff Capel |
| Texas Tech | 11 | 5-11 | None | 158 | 123 | 135 | L-2 | Oklahoma State | TCU | Pat Knight |
| Iowa State | 12 | 3-13 | None | 136 | 76 | 72 | W-1 | Baylor | Texas Tech | Fred Hoiberg |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to Yahoo!
Discussion
This might be the perfect scenario.
The projections above are attractive to me for a multitude of reasons. K-State would be opposite of Kansas in the bracket, setting up a possible rematch of last year's exciting championship game. We also would avoid a third game against Missouri (or even worse, a second consecutive game against Iowa State), which is no fun.
Instead, we would get one more shot at the Buffaloes, a chance to avenge that blasted sweep. With a win there, we could advance to avenge a projected loss to Texas (or perhaps administer a sweep of our own — who's to say?)
And perhaps the best part of this outcome, other than Kansas still having to claim just a share of the championship, would be Missouri plummeting all the way to sixth. For a team of over-the-back artists that can't win a road game against a team with a winning record, that would be all too fitting.
Also worth noting: The falling numbers and multiple losses to an underachieving Baylor team hint that Texas A&M is an overrated, vulnerable squad — stay tuned. And Colorado's win was enough for me to elevate them back to bubble status, but now they have to back it up by winning in Ames, something Nebraska couldn't do.
GAMER: No changes.
Pomeroy: Now has Missouri losing at Nebraska and Oklahoma State losing at Oklahoma.
Sagarin: No changes.
Self-Evaluation
5-1 is becoming a stellar mark of success lately in this upset-prone league. By picking all home teams this week, OUTLOOK is almost certain to continue that 16.7-percent failure rate. My money's on either Colorado or K-State or to screw things up this week, but Baylor and Missouri certainly are possibilities, as well.
Cumulative pick record: 65-19 (.774)
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (advanced statistical prediction model claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
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S — Sagarin predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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