With three games to go, there's precious little time for teams to move up or down the standings significantly.
Kansas and Texas clearly have separated from the pack, with KU still hopeful of another UT stumble and another shared trophy, while Missouri and Texas A&M are closer to teams behind them than national pundits seem to realize.
K-State lies just barely ahead of the Baylor-Colorado-Nebraska pack, and it remains to be seen if one of those three teams still can separate and make any kind of a serious bubble case. I'm doubting it.
And any team that is 4-9 or worse just isn't worth mentioning at this point. Most of 'em are ready for the season to end.
| Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Texas | 1 | 15-1 | NCAA | 9 | 4 | 4 | W-1 | Kansas | Nebraska | Rick Barnes |
| Kansas | 2 | 14-2 | NCAA | 1 | 3 | 1 | W-2 | Arizona | Kansas State | Bill Self |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 10-6 | NCAA | 26 | 41 | 38 | W-5 | Kansas State | Baylor | Mark Turgeon |
| Kansas State | 4 | 9-7 | NCAA | 27 | 35 | 33 | W-3 | Kansas | Colorado (2) | Frank Martin |
| Missouri | 5 | 9-7 | NCAA | 31 | 22 | 22 | W-4 | Vanderbilt | Colorado | Mike Anderson |
| Baylor | 6 | 7-9 | NIT | 84 | 63 | 57 | L-2 | Texas A&M | Texas Tech | Scott Drew |
| Colorado | 7 | 7-9 | NIT | 85 | 61 | 58 | W-1 | Kansas State (x2) | Oklahoma | Tad Boyle |
| Oklahoma State | 8 | 7-9 | NIT | 59 | 85 | 83 | L-4 | Kansas State | Texas Tech | Travis Ford |
| Nebraska | 9 | 6-10 | NIT | 77 | 44 | 50 | L-1 | Texas | Texas Tech | Doc Sadler |
| Texas Tech | 10 | 5-11 | None | 151 | 127 | 139 | L-1 | Oklahoma State | TCU | Pat Knight |
| Oklahoma | 11 | 4-12 | None | 130 | 137 | 132 | L-6 | Baylor | Chaminade | Jeff Capel |
| Iowa State | 12 | 3-13 | None | 140 | 77 | 72 | L-10 | Baylor | Texas Tech | Fred Hoiberg |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Discussion
Wow, what a difference a week makes.
This time last Saturday, Nebraska was celebrating a huge upset win and dreaming of dancing. But after a home loss to K-State (and a resultant computer drop that also added a projected loss to at home to Missouri), last week's darlings are this week's meteor, falling back to earth ... and down three seeds.
That's enough for me to bump them back to NIT status for now. So, too, is the projected fate of topsy-turvy Baylor.
Oklahoma State picked a win back up against those Bears, good enough to vault them to 7-9 like seemingly every other mediocre team in the league. For what it's worth, KenPom has been pretty consistent in predicting a 3-0 finish for the Cowboys, proving once again how much scheduling can make you look worse than you actually might be.
K-State and Missouri both picked up wins over Nebraska — real and projected, respectively — but the remaining tiebreakers remained unaltered, meaning K-State still holds the projected No. 4 seed. That would be huge, because who wants to play Iowa State twice in a row? There's nothing to gain from that. Plus, the day off and all that jazz.
The change in fortunes between the Wildcats and Tigers, which could be enshrined with a head-to-victory today, is expressed in the RPI flip-flop the two experienced this week. Note how K-State suddenly replaced Mizzou as everyone's signature win. Take that, ESPN Bubble Watch.
That's about it. The 4-9 seeds are still in play, but the three at the top and the three at the bottom are all but locked up.
GAMER: Now has Kansas losing at Missouri.
Pomeroy: Now has Missouri winning at Nebraska.
Sagarin: No changes.
Self-Evaluation
Like I said right after beating KU, the best kind of 5-1 week is one in which the "1" ends up being yet another huge Wildcat victory. Let's hope the same holds true for Monday, eh?
Today, OUTLOOK likes all the home teams, except for those having to face Kansas and Texas. Clever strategy, that.
Texas at Colorado is the obvious upset pick, but I think the Buffaloes are about done for, and the Longhorns, who rediscovered their mojo in the second half of Tuesday's game, should be all too happy to oblige them.
I think the likelier "upset" is Texas A&M over Baylor, and I'm somewhat worried about the Missouri game, as well.
And you can't rule out a Nebraska team that's fighting for its postseason life, although I tend to side with OUTLOOK on this one — the Cyclones are due to pop somebody any day now. Might as well be the Huskers.
OU might as well forfeit. Nobody cares about OSU or Tech.
Cumulative pick record: 60-18 (.769)
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (advanced statistical prediction model claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
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S — Sagarin predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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