Texas now holds a commanding lead over the rest of the conference, while the two Oklahoma schools appear to be settling toward the bottom of the barrel.
The new Fab Five consist of 6-5 and 5-6 teams Baylor, Colorado, Kansas State, Missouri and Nebraska. But only one of those has beat Kansas or Texas. Expect a little more separation after today's games.
And Iowa State and Texas Tech have to be the most deceptive 1-10 and 3-8 teams in the country.
The Cyclones now have lost seven conference games in the final minute, while the Red Raiders have pushed Missouri and Texas to the limit in recent games — both on the road.
But hey, you play to win the game, not give a good effort. Losers lose.
| Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Texas | 1 | 16-0 | NCAA | 8 | 4 | 4 | W-11 | Kansas | USC | Rick Barnes |
| Kansas | 2 | 14-2 | NCAA | 1 | 3 | 2 | L-1 | Arizona | Kansas State | Bill Self |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 10-6 | NCAA | 29 | 44 | 38 | W-3 | Missouri | Nebraska | Mark Turgeon |
| Baylor | 4 | 9-7 | NCAA | 64 | 50 | 48 | W-1 | Texas A&M | Iowa State | Scott Drew |
| Kansas State | 5 | 8-8 | NCAA | 31 | 37 | 34 | W-1 | Kansas | Colorado (2) | Frank Martin |
| Missouri | 6 | 8-8 | NCAA | 30 | 22 | 24 | W-2 | Vanderbilt | Colorado | Mike Anderson |
| Colorado | 7 | 7-9 | NIT | 90 | 56 | 56 | W-1 | Missouri | Oklahoma | Tad Boyle |
| Nebraska | 8 | 7-9 | NIT | 74 | 47 | 51 | W-2 | Texas A&M | Davidson | Doc Sadler |
| Oklahoma State | 9 | 6-10 | NIT | 52 | 83 | 79 | L-2 | Missouri | Texas Tech | Travis Ford |
| Oklahoma | 10 | 4-12 | None | 126 | 128 | 128 | L-4 | Baylor | Chaminade | Jeff Capel |
| Texas Tech | 11 | 4-12 | None | 152 | 135 | 139 | L-4 | Oklahoma State | TCU | Pat Knight |
| Iowa State | 12 | 3-13 | CBI | 142 | 74 | 67 | L-8 | Baylor | Texas Tech | Fred Hoiberg |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Discussion
Wow, look at all that green. In three years of doing this, I don't think I've ever seen one game have that much impact.
The long-expected shuffle finally happened. On the heels of a BIG 12 OUTLOOK in which virtually nothing changed, the developments of this week have thrown everything into flux.
K-State sees its first significant upward movement in weeks with the unexpected win over Kansas. The Cats' computer profile has improved significantly enough — and they've added a signature win — for me to pencil them in as an NCAA team for now.
Likewise, as long as Baylor keeps taking care of business, it looks as if the Bears will make it to 9-7, which I think is the magic number for tourney inclusion this season. Drop the game in Stillwater, though, and that might change. As of right now, I think Baylor falls on the right side of the bubble.
The antecedents to the green and the purple are the black and gold/orange, however.
Missouri is losing steam in the computers and desperately needs to log its first conference road win today. Colorado is a lost cause if the Buffaloes can't win in Lawrence. And Oklahoma State just needs to beat anybody — or even better, virtually everybody.
GAMER: No changes.
Pomeroy: Now has Baylor winning at Oklahoma State, and Missouri losing at Kansas State and Nebraska.
Sagarin: Now has Baylor winning at Oklahoma State.
Self-Evaluation
Never before has a 4-1 week felt so good.
it just goes to show you the power of home-court advantage. But for a freak ending in Norman, home teams would have been 5-0 in conference play this week (and 6-0 if you count Baylor's mail-it-in win over Wayland Baptist, but I hate to count that and encourage Scott Drew to schedule a team that bad again in the future).
OUTLOOK has been feeling pretty good for a while about the chances of Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M on the road today, but an upset in any of those three games would surprise precisely no one.
Missouri has to win a road game eventually, right? But the Tigers better defend the perimeter, because Iowa State can shoot the 3 well and is even more due for a victory of any kind. Oklahoma State's back is against the wall if the Cowboys have any hope of going to the Big Dance, and beating the Aggies is a must.
And if Texas is going to drop a game, today might be it. Nebraska plays a similar style of game — slow it down, play tenacious defense and get just enough scoring to win. If the Huskers can weather the first five minutes of the game, when most Texas opponents fall behind by double digits, they have a decent chance to be in it at the end.
Cumulative pick record: 51-15 (.773)
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (advanced statistical prediction model claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
-
S — Sagarin predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|