Kicking the Tires: Texas A&M Aggies

In the last two weeks, K-State has played games against two schools from Oklahoma, but that's about where the similarities end. Two weeks ago, K-State folded in the second half of a 58-17 home loss to Oklahoma. Last weekend, K-State fought Oklahoma State to the bitter end before Collin Klein's pass into the end zone fell incomplete on the last play of the game. The Cowboys escaped with a 52-45 victory.

The Wildcats now face a crucial home game against disappointing Texas A&M. The Aggies opened the season with hopes of a conference title and a BCS bowl appearance, but both of those goals are gone. A&M is now 5-4 on the season, and OU handed the Aggies their third conference loss of the season last Saturday, ending all hope of a Big 12 title. With none of those goals still available, you have to wonder what kind of focus and energy you're going to see from a team on a trip to Manhattan, Kan.

In addition to the disappointing season, Texas A&M will be without its leading rusher for the rest of the season. Christine Michael tore his ACL against Oklahoma last week and will have surgery. But the Aggies will still have plenty of firepower on offense in his absence.

Players to Watch

K-State

Rushing: John Hubert, 148 carries, 748 yards, 5.05 yards/carry, 2 TD, 83.1 yards/game

Passing: Collin Klein, 112-192-4, 1,223 yards, 9 TD, 6.4 yards/attempt, 135.9 yards/game

Receiving: Chris Harper, 33 receptions, 375 yards, 11.4 yards/reception, 3 TD, 41.7 yards/game

Defensive line: Ray Kibble, 25 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1.0 sacks

Linebackers: Arthur Brown, 69 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 1 INT

Secondary: David Garrett, 57 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 2 INT

Texas A&M

Rushing: Cyrus Gray, 159 carries, 733 yards, 4.6 yards/carry, 7 TD, 81.4 yards/game

Passing: Ryan Tannehill, 232-369-10, 2,701 yards, 20 TD, 7.3 yards/attempt, 300.1 yards/game

Receiving: Ryan Swope, 60 receptions, 874 yards, 14.6 yards/reception, 8 TD, 97.1 yards/game

Defensive line: Tony Jerod-Eddie, 34 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks

Linebackers:Jonathan Stewart, 64 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1.0 sacks

Secondary: Trent Hunter, 60 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT

Every team who loses its starting running back should be so lucky as to have a backup who is putting up starters numbers. That's what A&M has in Gray. Of course, it's not the K-State rushing defense I'm so concerned about. We've faced some of the Big 12's top backs in Henry Josey and Joseph Randle and done a pretty good job against them.

No, it's more that Tannehill-to-Swope connection I'm worried about. And that Tannehill-to-Jeff Fuller combination. Tannehill isn't averaging as many yards as Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden, but he's not far behind either. The way our defense is playing against the pass, maybe we'll hold him to "only" 425 yards passing.

Defensively, Tony Jerod-Eddie is going to be a handful for K-State's offensive line. Our pass blocking was pretty terrible against Oklahoma State, resulting in a lot of Collin Klein scrambles. The Cowboys don't have anyone like Jerod-Eddie. Also, it kills me seeing Trent Hunter's name at safety for Texas A&M. Just think if our starting safeties this year were Trent Hunter and Ty Zimmerman. ::Sigh::

Team Statistics (from CFBStats.com)

Rushing Offense

K-State: 217.2 yards/game, 19th nationally

Texas A&M: 216.0 yards/game, 20th

Passing Offense

K-State: 141.7 yards/game, 112th

Texas A&M: 304.6 yards/game, 12th

Total Offense

K-State: 358.9 yards/game, 86th

Texas A&M: 520.6 yards/game, 6th

Rushing Defense

K-State: 100.0 yards/game, 12th

Texas A&M: 110.2 yards/game, 23rd

Pass Efficiency Defense

K-State: 96th

Texas A&M: 79th

Total Defense:

K-State: 402.8 yards/game, 76th

Texas A&M: 421.4 yards/game, 92nd

This matchup is not as favorable as I had expected before I took a look at the numbers. K-State is good running the ball, but Texas A&M is good at stopping the run. Texas A&M is weak against the pass, but K-State is really bad at throwing the ball. K-State is just about the worst team in the country against the pass, at least in passing yards allowed, and Texas A&M is really good at throwing the ball.

For a third straight week, we're going to watch a team move up and down the field throwing the ball. Swope and Fuller are going to find plenty of holes in our zone defense, and Texas A&M is 11th in the country in sacks allowed. We won't get pressure on Tannehill without blitzing, and we know we won't blitz.

So the statistical matchups aren't in our favor. What about the hidden-yardage stats?

Turnover Margin

K-State: +11, 7th nationally

Texas A&M: -10, 116th

Penalties

K-State: 43.6 yards/game, 30th

Texas A&M: 62.2 yards/game, 97th

Third-Down Conversions

K-State: 46.7 percent, 30th

Texas A&M: 48.1 percent, 21st

Red-Zone Conversions

K-State: 85.1 percent, 40th

Texas A&M: 93.0 percent, 7th

Time of Possession

K-State: 35:06, 1st

Texas A&M: 29:37, 61st

Here's where you find hope as a K-State fan. The Wildcats hold a decisive advantage in turnover margin, penalty yards and time of possession. In particular, the Aggies have given away the ball 17 times this season, nearly twice per game. On average, they're only forcing a little more than one turnover per game, including only four interceptions on the year. If K-State can leverage A&M into a two-turnover deficit, then the Wildcats will have a very good chance to win this game.

The other obvious advantage for K-State is the time of possession. Texas A&M isn't as bad at holding the ball as some of the Big 12's quick-strike offenses, but they're nothing special. This will be a key battleground in the game. If Texas A&M's rushing defense can stifle K-State's rushing offense, then K-State will have difficulty moving the ball and sustaining drives. I don't have to tell you that would be a bad deal for the Wildcats.

Prediction

Despite the favorable numbers matchup for Texas A&M, I still think this is a game K-State very well could win. Texas A&M is reeling at this point, suffering consecutive losses that were difficult to stomach in different ways. The Missouri loss was a home game to a team that itself had been scuffling along, while the Oklahoma game was a second-half beatdown in which the Aggies lost their top running back. Of course, K-State is also coming off two losses and is also out of the Big 12 title race at this point, so it's anybody's guess how K-State will perform Saturday. But between returning home and being an underdog all season, I think it's more likely K-State shows up ready to play. We'll say the Wildcats get to eight wins with a 33-30 victory.