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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.15.11

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Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.14.2011)


 

The surprise of this young Big 12 season continues to be Colorado, which validated its upset win over Missouri with a shocking victory in Manhattan. K-State's flaws aside, the Buffaloes are proving to be a pretty salty team.

They're neck-and-neck with Baylor and Texas A&M, both of which will face significant tests this weekend. Just behind them are traditional conference powers Kansas and Texas, each of which picked up their first Big 12 win.

Then it gets a little more muddied: Everyone else already has lost one or two conference games and is trailing the pack at the top.

Follow the jump for further analysis.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 3 2 W-16 Arizona None Bill Self
Texas 2 14-2 NCAA 33 9 12 W-1 North Carolina USC Rick Barnes
Texas A&M 3 12-4 NCAA 20 22 16 W-12 Temple Boston College Mark Turgeon
Baylor 4 8-8 Bubble 104 34 68 W-4 Arizona State Florida State Scott Drew
Colorado 5 8-8 Bubble 90 66 60 W-6 Missouri San Francisco Tad Boyle
Nebraska 6 8-8 NIT 105 38 59 L-1 USC Davidson Doc Sadler
Missouri 7 8-8 NCAA 37 27 31 W-1 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Oklahoma State 8 7-9 Bubble 32 61 47 L-1 Missouri State Virginia Tech Travis Ford
Iowa State 9 7-9 NIT 99 39 54 L-2 Creighton Nebraska Fred Hoiberg
Kansas State 10 6-10 Bubble 49 49 44 L-2 Gonzaga Colorado Frank Martin
Texas Tech 11 1-15 None 210 115 176 L-2 Liberty TCU Pat Knight
Oklahoma 12 1-15 None 208 135 163 L-2 Texas Southern Chaminade Jeff Capel

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

An unexpected loss by Kansas State and an unexpectedly lopsided loss by Oklahoma State sent those two teams plummeting near the bottom of the projected standings.

The big gainers were Colorado and Missouri, who picked up two projected wins and one projected win, respectively.

Also moving up due to the fall of teams ahead of them were Baylor and Nebraska. Now we have a congested mass of teams projected to finish at 8-8 or within a few games of .500. Good luck sorting that out, Big 12 Tournament algorithm.

For the time being, I'm upgrading Baylor and Colorado to bubble status, although both still have work to do thanks to poor non-conference resumes. Meanwhile, I'll downgrade K-State and O-State until they pick up a few more Big 12 victories — either real or projected.

GAMER: Now has Colorado winning at Oklahoma.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor, Missouri and Texas A&M winning at Oklahoma State; Nebraska losing at Colorado; Texas winning at Baylor; and Texas Tech losing at Oklahoma State.

Sagarin: Now has Kansas State losing at Colorado; Missouri winning at Oklahoma State; and Texas A&M losing at Baylor and Nebraska, but winning at Oklahoma State.

 

Self-Evaluation

Another near-perfect outing destroyed once again by those feisty Buffaloes. The computer models seem to have a handle on everything except the surprise that is Colorado basketball.

Other that, all is according to plan. And with such upset-resistant match-ups as Nebraska at Kansas, Oklahoma at Texas and Texas Tech at Kansas State, look for that pattern to continue Saturday. BIG 12 OUTLOOK likes all the home teams this weekend.

Cumulative pick record: 9-2 (.818)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
O-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
Baylor
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ A&M (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
01.17-01.19
Kansas (GPS)
@ Baylor
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
I-State
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Texas (GPS)
01.22
O-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
K-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Nebraska (GPS)
@ Tech
01.24-01.26
Baylor
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
01.29
Colorado
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M
@ Nebraska (GPS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech (G)
01.31-02.02
Texas
@ A&M (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
I-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.05
K-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ A&M (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.07-02.09
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado (G)
Nebraska
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.12
K-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.14-02.16
Kansas (GPS)
@ K-State
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.19
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri
@ I-State (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ Nebraska (G)
A&M (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (P)
@ O-State (GS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (PS)
@ Baylor (G)
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)