A full analysis of the weekend that was and my mid-season All-Big 12 picks follow after the jump.
| Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Kansas | 1 | 16-0 | NCAA | 2 | 3 | 3 | W-15 | Arizona | None | Bill Self |
| Texas | 2 | 13-3 | NCAA | 34 | 14 | 15 | L-1 | Illinois | USC | Rick Barnes |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 12-4 | NCAA | 26 | 28 | 22 | W-11 | Temple | Boston College | Mark Turgeon |
| Oklahoma State | 4 | 9-7 | NCAA | 35 | 46 | 38 | W-2 | Kansas State | Virginia Tech | Travis Ford |
| Kansas State | 5 | 8-8 | NCAA | 25 | 39 | 33 | L-1 | Gonzaga | Oklahoma State | Frank Martin |
| Baylor | 6 | 8-8 | NIT | 121 | 31 | 70 | W-3 | Jackson State | Florida State | Scott Drew |
| Nebraska | 7 | 8-8 | NIT | 119 | 36 | 57 | W-11 | USC | Davidson | Doc Sadler |
| Missouri | 8 | 7-9 | NCAA | 45 | 27 | 30 | L-1 | Vanderbilt | Colorado | Mike Anderson |
| Iowa State | 9 | 7-9 | NIT | 95 | 43 | 55 | L-1 | Creighton | Nebraska | Fred Hoiberg |
| Colorado | 10 | 6-10 | NIT | 106 | 66 | 74 | W-5 | Missouri | San Francisco | Tad Boyle |
| Texas Tech | 11 | 1-15 | None | 218 | 102 | 166 | L-1 | Liberty | TCU | Pat Knight |
| Oklahoma | 12 | 1-15 | None | 217 | 136 | 165 | L-1 | Texas Southern | Chaminade | Jeff Capel |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Discussion
Since this is the first installment of the season, there's nothing to discuss in terms of prediction changes from a previous installment.
I will say that I am experimenting with using Sagarin's pure predictor points instead of his composite rankings, but since Sagarin only accounts for one-third of the overall formula, I don't expect that alteration to have much impact.
I did look into some other ranking systems in the last few weeks, but none of them really caught my fancy. I'm going to stick with what has worked thus far (e.g., an 81.3-percent prediction success rate in 2009-10).
So far, the model appears to essentially be following this golden rule: Pick the home team, unless 1) the road team is Kansas (in which case, pick Kansas), or 2) the home team is Oklahoma or Texas Tech (in which case, pick the road team). Seems pretty sensible to me.
GAMER: No changes to report.
Pomeroy: No changes to report.
Sagarin: No changes to report.
Self-Evaluation
Admittedly, I dropped the ball a little by not posting a pre-Big 12 edition of the OUTLOOK so you could see all the initial predictions.
So you're just going to have to take my word for this: The model correctly predicted four of the five games Saturday, whiffing only on Missouri's shocking loss at Colorado.
That matches the 4-1 start I had at this time last season, too, in case you were wondering.
Cumulative pick record: 4-1 (.800)
Mid-Season Awards: The Pre-Botcies
coming soon
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
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S — Sagarin composite rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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