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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.10.11

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Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.9.2011)


 

A full analysis of the weekend that was and my mid-season All-Big 12 picks follow after the jump.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 2 3 3 W-15 Arizona None Bill Self
Texas 2 13-3 NCAA 34 14 15 L-1 Illinois USC Rick Barnes
Texas A&M 3 12-4 NCAA 26 28 22 W-11 Temple Boston College Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State 4 9-7 NCAA 35 46 38 W-2 Kansas State Virginia Tech Travis Ford
Kansas State 5 8-8 NCAA 25 39 33 L-1 Gonzaga Oklahoma State Frank Martin
Baylor 6 8-8 NIT 121 31 70 W-3 Jackson State Florida State Scott Drew
Nebraska 7 8-8 NIT 119 36 57 W-11 USC Davidson Doc Sadler
Missouri 8 7-9 NCAA 45 27 30 L-1 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Iowa State 9 7-9 NIT 95 43 55 L-1 Creighton Nebraska Fred Hoiberg
Colorado 10 6-10 NIT 106 66 74 W-5 Missouri San Francisco Tad Boyle
Texas Tech 11 1-15 None 218 102 166 L-1 Liberty TCU Pat Knight
Oklahoma 12 1-15 None 217 136 165 L-1 Texas Southern Chaminade Jeff Capel

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Since this is the first installment of the season, there's nothing to discuss in terms of prediction changes from a previous installment.

I will say that I am experimenting with using Sagarin's pure predictor points instead of his composite rankings, but since Sagarin only accounts for one-third of the overall formula, I don't expect that alteration to have much impact.

I did look into some other ranking systems in the last few weeks, but none of them really caught my fancy. I'm going to stick with what has worked thus far (e.g., an 81.3-percent prediction success rate in 2009-10).

So far, the model appears to essentially be following this golden rule: Pick the home team, unless 1) the road team is Kansas (in which case, pick Kansas), or 2) the home team is Oklahoma or Texas Tech (in which case, pick the road team). Seems pretty sensible to me.

GAMER: No changes to report.

Pomeroy: No changes to report.

Sagarin: No changes to report.

 

Self-Evaluation

Admittedly, I dropped the ball a little by not posting a pre-Big 12 edition of the OUTLOOK so you could see all the initial predictions.

So you're just going to have to take my word for this: The model correctly predicted four of the five games Saturday, whiffing only on Missouri's shocking loss at Colorado.

That matches the 4-1 start I had at this time last season, too, in case you were wondering.

Cumulative pick record: 4-1 (.800)

 

Mid-Season Awards: The Pre-Botcies

coming soon

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
01.15
O-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
Baylor
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ A&M (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
01.17-01.19
Kansas (GPS)
@ Baylor
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
I-State
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Texas (GPS)
01.22
O-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Colorado (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
K-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Nebraska (GPS)
@ Tech
01.24-01.26
Baylor
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
01.29
Colorado
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M (S)
@ Nebraska (GP)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech (G)
01.31-02.02
Texas
@ A&M (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
I-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri
@ O-State (GPS)
02.05
K-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ A&M (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.07-02.09
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado (G)
Nebraska
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.12
K-State (GP)
@ Colorado (S)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.14-02.16
Kansas (GPS)
@ K-State
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.19
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri
@ I-State (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ Nebraska (G)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M (GP)
@ Baylor (S)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (S)
@ Baylor (GP)
Nebraska (P)
@ Colorado (GS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)