BIG 12 OUTLOOK will morph a bit this week. In this edition, I will take a look at the overall predictive performance for the 2010 conference season and hand out my end-of-season awards.
Later in the week, OUTLOOK will project tournament outcomes based on current available information.
There will be a BIG 12 TOURNAMENT OUTLOOK posted every morning of the tournament, which I will try to update with game outcomes and other interesting information throughout the day.
I have all-session tickets for the whole tournament, by the way.
Like last year, I hope the comments section on said entries will function as a live discussion for the BOTC community, much as our game threads do.
| Seed | Record | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Kansas | 1 | 15-1 | NCAA | 1 | 2 | 1 | W-2 | Kansas State (x2) | Oklahoma State | Bill Self |
| Kansas State | 2 | 11-5 | NCAA | 6 | 11 | 8 | L-2 | Baylor | Iowa State | Frank Martin |
| Baylor | 3 | 11-5 | NCAA | 8 | 12 | 10 | W-4 | Texas A&M | Colorado | Scott Drew |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 11-5 | NCAA | 12 | 21 | 16 | W-3 | Baylor | Washington | Mark Turgeon |
| Missouri | 5 | 10-6 | NCAA | 36 | 13 | 19 | L-1 | Kansas State | Oral Roberts | Mike Anderson |
| Texas | 6 | 9-7 | NCAA | 27 | 14 | 11 | L-1 | Pittsburgh | Oklahoma | Rick Barnes |
| Oklahoma State | 7 | 9-7 | NCAA | 28 | 41 | 34 | W-1 | Kansas | Oklahoma | Travis Ford |
| Colorado | 8 | 6-10 | CBI | 103 | 83 | 88 | W-3 | Baylor | Oregon State | Jeff Bzdelik |
| Texas Tech | 9 | 4-12 | NIT | 72 | 89 | 72 | L-7 | Oklahoma State | Nebraska | Pat Knight |
| Oklahoma | 10 | 4-12 | None | 108 | 96 | 96 | L-8 | Texas | San Diego | Jeff Capel |
| Iowa State | 11 | 4-12 | None | 113 | 74 | 75 | W-1 | Kansas State | Northwestern | Greg McDermott |
| Nebraska | 12 | 2-14 | None | 155 | 101 | 100 | L-2 | Tulsa | Creighton | Doc Sadler |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Self-Evaluation
Thanks to K-State's Senior Night flop, BIG 12 OUTLOOK ended the regular season in predictable and appropriate fashion by going 5-1 yet again.
OUTLOOK successfully predicted the outcomes of 78 out of 96 conference games, which represents a four-game improvement over last season's record, despite what seemed at times to be an even more unpredictable conference season.
Thus, I attained the goal I set exactly one year ago of exceeding 80-percent prediction. My incorporation of RealTimeRPI into the algorithm helped improve last year's 77-percent rate to 81.3 percent, so I'll give this season's effort a B-. I'm shooting for 85 percent next year, though — always strive for excellence.
Much more impressive was this freaky-deaky voodoo. By Feb. 1, my model already had correctly predicted seven of the 12 seeds in the Big 12 Tournament, before the conference season even reached its halfway point.
Just one week later, I nailed three of the top four seeds and — but for a temporary flip-flop of Oklahoma and Texas Tech — would have had nine of 12 seeds correct. That adjustment came five days afterward, when all but seeds 4-6 slid into place.
Two days after that, I suffered a minor setback. Although the top half of the conference came into focus, a temporary slide in Colorado's computer numbers resulted in the Buffaloes falling way down the pecking order and throwing the bottom half into predictive chaos.
But on Feb. 20, OUTLOOK redeemed itself by correctly picking all 12 seeds for the first time. That might not seem impressive, but it's markedly better than last season, when even my final projection was incorrect due to the crazy four-way tie for fourth place.
About the only thing wrong with that 2.5-week-old prediction was an NIT prediction for Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys ripped off three straight wins against Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas that no system had them winning.
I think the proudest accomplishment of this feature in 2010 was that it had no 3-3 weeks. The worst individual performance was 4-2, and that only happened three times. That's way better than the first year I did this.
Final pick record: 78-18 (.813)
Postseason Awards: The Botcies
The Big 12 Conference awarded its postseason honors to players and coaches Sunday, as well as selecting its first, second, and third all-conference teams and honorable mentions.
I have fewer disagreements with their selections than I did last year, and although that righteous anger no longer fuels me, I still think this is a worthwhile exercise. So read on to see the winners of the second annual Botcies... (Get it? BOTCies?)
Player of the Year
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James Anderson (Oklahoma State) Anyone who picks someone else needs to be committed to a mental institution. |
Defensive Player of the Year
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Cole Aldrich (Kansas) The reasons Kansas likely will win its second national championship in three years start and end with this man. No other team in the country has a player to match Aldrich's skill set. |
Newcomer of the Year
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Ekpe Udoh (Baylor) But as good as Aldrich is, he still finished second to The Nightmare in blocks for the season. All Ekpe Udoh did was set a new Big 12 season record while elevating Baylor from also-ran to contender. |
Freshman of the Year
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Alec Burks (Colorado) Could the biggest shock of the season be Xavier Henry not winning this award? Because of his early conference season slump, Henry really didn't deserve it. But if Colorado didn't add Burks and Marcus Relphorde this season, the Buffaloes wouldn't be 6-10 and fighting for an NIT bid. Without question, Burks impacted his team more than any other Big 12 freshman this season. |
Sixth Man of the Year
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Jamar Samuels (Kansas State) As Cartier Martin first necessitated the creation of this award, so too did Jamar Samuels completely reinvent its meaning. You see, JamSam is not so much a top reserve as he is a starter who just happens not to technically start the game. As K-State's fourth-leading scorer and one of its leading rebounders, this was a no-brainer. |
The Darnell Jackson "Most Improved Senior" Overachievement Award
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Tweety Carter (Baylor) The first of my "original" Botcies, this award is named for Darnell Jackson, the Kansas player who didn't do very much until his senior year, when he probably was the best overall post player on a national championship team. Don't get me wrong — Tweety Carter was pretty good last season. But he was a grown-ass man this season. I can't count the number of times he did something that simply made my jaw drop. |
The Aaron Bruce "Most Regressed Senior" Underachievement Award
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Dexter Pittman (Texas) This award is named for the former Baylor guard who stunned the league as a freshman and basically got worse every season of his career. His senior year was by far his least productive. Maybe I should rename the award after a Texas post player, because Sexy Dex is the second straight one to win this dubious honor (see a pattern?). Anyone else remember him going off against North Carolina for 23 and 15, causing Jason King to devolve into paroxysms? Yeah, neither do I. |
The Joey Graham "Tough Son of a Bitch" Awards
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James Anderson (Oklahoma State) One of the indelible images of this season was Anderson battling through cramps, an injured back and God knows what else to help his team upset No. 1 Kansas. Remember when he threw down that vicious breakaway dunk, but landed with a wince as his back spasmed up on him? Trust me, the Jayhawks still do. |
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Bryan Davis (Texas A&M) Davis has a rare combination of mental and physical toughness that makes good players great. As a post player in the Big 12, he's a bit undersized, but I watched him battle Cole Aldrich for 40 minutes without backing down — hell, Cole might even have blinked a little. As for mental toughness, the entire Aggies team could hoist this award after watching what happened to Derrick Roland in Seattle, yet still producing a stellar season. |
Coach of the Year
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Scott Drew (Baylor) You easily could throw the names of Drew, Frank Martin and Mark Turgeon in a hat, then draw any of them out, and I would agree with the choice. Since Frank already was honored by the Big 12 (and deservedly so), I thought I'd throw a little love Drew's way — especially after how I savaged him last season. Baylor was picked 10th and finished tied for second. If that's not COTY material, what is? |
Most Underachieving Coach of the Year
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Jeff Capel (Oklahoma) One. Two. Three. That's how many McDonald's All-Americans will fail to visit the postseason after Oklahoma's disaster of a 2009-2010 season. Jeff, you better blow this thing up in the off-season, push Willie Warren off to the NBA where he belongs, and start rebuilding around Tiny Gallon and Tommy Mason-Griffin. |
All-Big 12 First Team
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| Cole Aldrich | James Anderson | Jacob Pullen | Donald Sloan | Ekpe Udoh |
| Kansas | Oklahoma State | Kansas State | Texas A&M | Baylor |
Well, the Player of the Year, the Defensive Player of the Year and the Newcomer of the Year are locks.
That left me needing two guards, and a quick check of the conference statistics showed that the Big 12 correctly identified them as Jacob Pullen and Donald Sloan.
Oh, yes, then they threw out a charity nomination to Sherron Collins, even though his numbers are drastically down this season.
Luckily, the Botcy rules clearly state only one player from a school can be on this team, so I don't have to defend to my decision to omit Collins any further.
But believe me, I could.
All-Big 12 Second Team
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| Craig Brackins | Tweety Carter | Denis Clemente | Sherron Collins | Damion James |
| Iowa State | Baylor | Kansas State | Kansas | Texas |
Craig Brackins and Damion James both will be NBA lottery picks, but I penalized both of them for poor team performance.
Denis Clemente and Sherron Collins both are warriors and leaders with some flaws in their respective games, but they're still integral to their team's success.
The much-improved Carter almost is worthy of first-team status, but Udoh was a little more deserving, I thought.
All-Big 12 Third Team
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| Bryan Davis | LaceDarius Dunn | Kim English | Cory Higgins | Marcus Morris |
| Texas A&M | Baylor | Missouri | Colorado | Kansas |
Davis, Dunn and Higgins all are integral to their teams' success and merit some form of inclusion, although I certainly left off other deserving players due to lack of space.
Marcus Morris simply was the most improved player in the Big 12 this season, logging a double-double in every conference game until the home stretch, when he admittedly faltered a bit.
I suspect that Kim English was chosen for the Big 12's team when the voters looked at their ballots and realized that they didn't have a single Missouri player anywhere. Although I followed suit, I thoroughly agree with Peter Bean's analysis: Missouri's best "player" is Mike Anderson — and that's why none of the individual players jump out at you.
All-Big 12 Defensive Team
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| Cole Aldrich | Dogus Balbay | Jacob Pullen | J.T. Tiller | Ekpe Udoh |
| Kansas | Texas | Kansas State | Missouri | Baylor |
Nothing too special or original here, I suppose.
Aldrich and Tiller are holdovers from last season.
Udoh deserves inclusion for his blocks record.
This might be the only honor Balbay ever accrues, but he definitely deserves it. The only thing the man can do is defense, after all.
I heartily endorse the inclusion of Pullen on the list, and swapping him for Dominique Sutton presented no problems for me. Dom's defense, as well as other aspects of his game, regressed this season, compared to where he was last year.
All-Big 12 Freshman Team
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| Avery Bradley | Alec Burks | Tiny Gallon | Xavier Henry | Tommy Mason-Griffin |
| Texas | Colorado | Oklahoma | Kansas | Oklahoma |
Botcy policy limits this team to true and redshirt freshmen. These are the future stars of the league, except maybe Henry, who might not be back next season.
Take one Big 12 All-Rookie Team, subtract Ekpe Udoh because he's not a freshman, and replace him with the most promising big man in the conference — mission accomplished.
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8 percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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