Things still are tightly compacted in the race for second place, as no team is more than two losses behind us in the loss column.
But we hold tiebreakers on all but two of them, and of the two that beat us, we get another shot at Missouri and I don't see Oklahoma State seriously getting into the mix with the schedule ahead of it — although the Cowboys have surprised me thus far, winning two in a row that my model had them losing.
Meanwhile, Kansas inched ever closer to a 16-0 season, and given that we now look like a seven-bid conference, that accomplishment would be damned impressive — perhaps even worthy of a second consecutive Coach of the Year honor, much as I hate to admit it.
| Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Kansas | 1 | 16-0 | NCAA | 1 | 2 | 1 | W-12 | Kansas State | Tennessee | Bill Self |
| Kansas State | 2 | 12-4 | NCAA | 6 | 11 | 8 | W-5 | Texas A&M | Ole Miss | Frank Martin |
| Baylor | 3 | 11-5 | NCAA | 15 | 15 | 13 | L-1 | Xavier | Colorado | Scott Drew |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 11-5 | NCAA | 13 | 34 | 24 | W-1 | Baylor | Washington | Mark Turgeon |
| Missouri | 5 | 10-6 | NCAA | 39 | 13 | 14 | W-2 | Kansas State | Oral Roberts | Mike Anderson |
| Texas | 6 | 9-7 | NCAA | 25 | 9 | 10 | W-1 | Pittsburgh | Oklahoma | Rick Barnes |
| Oklahoma State | 7 | 8-8 | NCAA | 29 | 47 | 37 | W-3 | Kansas State | Oklahoma | Travis Ford |
| Texas Tech | 8 | 5-11 | NIT | 46 | 79 | 65 | L-3 | Oklahoma State | Wichita State | Pat Knight |
| Colorado | 9 | 4-12 | None | 131 | 89 | 99 | L-1 | Baylor | Oregon State | Jeff Bzdelik |
| Oklahoma | 10 | 4-12 | None | 105 | 98 | 95 | L-4 | Texas | San Diego | Jeff Capel |
| Iowa State | 11 | 3-13 | None | 120 | 81 | 86 | L-6 | Saint Louis | Oklahoma | Greg McDermott |
| Nebraska | 12 | 3-13 | None | 137 | 90 | 98 | L-6 | Tulsa | Colorado | Doc Sadler |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Discussion
Without a doubt, the team of the week has to be Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys picked up unpredicted wins at Iowa State and against Baylor, and in the process, firmly planted themselves on the right side of the bubble. They needed one more signature win — before a brutal stretch that likely will see them lose their next three — and they got it.
Although Baylor's numbers suffered across the board as a result of the loss, the Bears still are in a favorable position — a tie with Texas A&M favors them because of a higher predicted record against the South Division.
Kansas continued its unholy march toward league history in steady fashion. With the awakening of Xavier Henry, the Jayhawks clearly are the best team in the nation. To put things in perspective, consider that they have won as many consecutive Big 12 games as the bottom two teams have lost combined. That's just grotesque.
As for the aforementioned bottom-feeders, I hardly can wait until this week's much-anticipated showdown between Iowa State and Nebraska. The winner is going to feel damn good about itself and the loser might fire its coach by Saturday.
The last time these stalwart rivals met on the hardwood, the Cyclones escaped Lincoln with a three-point win, but not before taunting, "Just like football!"
Will the Huskers avenge their Pelini-led brethren? More important, will tbe bloody game even be on TV, or will it be blacked out to protect younger viewers from the monstrosity that will unfold?
Texas Tech is about ready to kick the bucket, especially considering John Roberson's injury. But the Red Raiders actually are an interesting test case.
God forbid they should upset the Cats on Tuesday, but if they do and somehow can win out from there, that 8-8 record actually might get them on the bubble. Pomeroy has them losing out, though.
Speaking of Pomeroy, if you ever need to remind yourself that his rankings can be a bit wonky from time to time, look no further than their decision today to drop Kansas to No. 2 behind freakin' Duke.
Yes, Ken Pom's crazy calculator actually thinks a four-loss team that barely has been challenged in its mediocre conference is better than the RPI No. 1 team that has more quality wins than Flava Flav has gold teeth. Will wonders never cease?
And what can we say about poor Oklahoma that wasn't already said by us moving into his apartment, shacking up with his girlfriend, eating all of his Cheetos and stealing his PS3 on the way out?
When this model first spat out the result of an eight-game losing streak to end the Sooners' miserable season, I was skeptical. No more. The team I saw finish Saturday's game looked absolutely beaten. How ugly will Big Monday be? Will Jeff Capel even be able to field enough players to finish the year?
Of course, on the bright side, at least he won't be (Doc Sadler/Greg McDermott — insert losing coach here) this week.
Now that really would suck.
GAMER: Now has Colorado losing to Texas Tech.
Pomeroy: No change, other than his too-cool-for-school shakeup at the top.
Sagarin: Now has Texas Tech losing to Nebraska*.
*This result is marked with an asterisk above and below because — once home-court advantage was factored into the equation — NU and TTU were tied by Sagarin rating. For simplicity's sake (and to make things a little more interesting upset-wise), I award all ties to the home team. It should be noted that the previous BIG 12 OUTLOOK also had Texas Tech losing to Nebraska, so this is not a new result, per se. But the tie is new.
Self-Evaluation
5-1! It's the new 6-0!
I told you Baylor wasn't the shoo-in all three prediction systems claimed, didn't I? Hell hath no fury like a bubble team fighting for its tournament life.
This week is the complete opposite of last Saturday. Now I'm picking all the home teams to win, save one. Much saner strategy, that.
Colorado, Nebraska and Oklahoma probably don't stand a chance.
OSU certainly would like to avenge its home loss to Texas, which looks even more vulnerable after it needed a last-minute shot to beat Texas Tech and lost Dogus Balbay, likely for the season. But I think the Longhorns will find a way to get it done in the The Drum.
Baylor, on the other hand, should be able to collect said revenge against Texas A&M. This is a bad time for the Aggies to roll into Waco, considering what just happened in Stillwater.
And that just leaves us. C'mon, Cats, don't let me down!
Cumulative pick record: 57-15 (.792)
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8 percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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