A quick glance at the above standings indicates that we reasonably can expect Texas A&M to be ranked by this time tomorrow, when it hosts the Jayhawks on Big Monday. At a minimum, Georgia Tech and UNLV should be falling out, and Baylor will replace Cornell in the coaches' poll.
Of course, I'm on record saying KU will go 16-0, so it remains to be seen how long the Aggies' ranking lasts this time around.
At any rate, given that we hold a head-to-head tiebreaker and have a much easier remaining schedule than Mark Turgeon's club, I'm not too worried about them.
They're welcome to the No. 3 seed, because second is not available.
The battle for the final bye is a free-for-all between Baylor, Missouri and Texas.
Baylor has the upper hand due to wins over the other two, and if it can complete the sweep against the Longhorns in Waco, that should put an end to the discussion.
Oklahoma State collected a much-needed win to end a three-game losing streak and send Oklahoma tumbling into a losing streak of its own, but I'm still not buying the Cowboys as an NCAA Tournament team.
They need to beat either Baylor or Texas and collect another quality win, although the win over Texas A&M is gaining weight with each passing game.
The other teams pretty much are a lost cause and I don't plan on discussing them much from here on out. Texas Tech let its best chance to get back on the bubble slip through its fingers Saturday, and while I project Colorado to collect at least two more wins, its season probably will end in Kansas City.
The other three might be starting to contemplate coaching changes...
| Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Kansas | 1 | 16-0 | NCAA | 1 | 1 | 1 | W-10 | Kansas State | Tennessee | Bill Self |
| Kansas State | 2 | 12-4 | NCAA | 8 | 9 | 8 | W-3 | Texas A&M | Ole Miss | Frank Martin |
| Baylor | 3 | 12-4 | NCAA | 18 | 16 | 13 | W-2 | Xavier | Colorado | Scott Drew |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 11-5 | NCAA | 13 | 34 | 25 | W-4 | Baylor | Washington | Mark Turgeon |
| Missouri | 5 | 10-6 | NCAA | 44 | 14 | 22 | L-1 | Kansas State | Oral Roberts | Mike Anderson |
| Texas | 6 | 9-7 | NCAA | 28 | 8 | 10 | W-1 | Texas A&M | Oklahoma | Rick Barnes |
| Oklahoma State | 7 | 6-10 | NIT | 37 | 53 | 44 | W-1 | Kansas State | Oklahoma | Travis Ford |
| Texas Tech | 8 | 5-11 | NIT | 36 | 79 | 63 | L-1 | Oklahoma State | Wichita State | Pat Knight |
| Oklahoma | 9 | 4-12 | None | 88 | 94 | 89 | L-2 | Texas | San Diego | Jeff Capel |
| Iowa State | 10 | 4-12 | None | 107 | 80 | 80 | L-4 | Saint Louis | Oklahoma | Greg McDermott |
| Colorado | 11 | 4-12 | None | 143 | 87 | 103 | L-4 | Baylor | Oregon State | Jeff Bzdelik |
| Nebraska | 12 | 3-13 | None | 126 | 91 | 95 | L-4 | Tulsa | Colorado | Doc Sadler |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Discussion
How do you know you're a Northtard? Check your schedule. Have you lost four in a row? Then you're a Northtard.
The numbers finally caught up to poor ol' Colorado, which now is projected to lose to Texas Tech and finish 4-12, not the lofty 5-11 the Buffaloes had been sitting at for the past few editions of BIG 12 OUTLOOK.
Things are tight in the race for mediocrity among our February opponents not named Kansas and Missouri, and that tiny little change sent Colorado plummeting down the bracket to an 11 seed.
Such is life among the have-nots. But at least the NIT-projected teams stack up more nicely below the NCAA ones now.
The complete opposite of the Northtards is red-hot Texas A&M, which ripped off its fourth straight win by popping Texas Tech's bubble in Lubbock. That win, combined with a newly predicted home victory against Texas, moved the Aggies ahead of Missouri in the race for the final bye — for now.
Hypothetical question: If Texas finishes 9-7 and gets the No. 6 seed, wouldn't the Longhorns have to be considered about the worst flop of a one-time No. 1 team ever?
GAMER: Now has Texas beating Missouri and losing at Texas A&M, and Colorado losing to Texas Tech.
Pomeroy: No change.
Sagarin: Now has Nebraska losing to Texas Tech.
Self-Evaluation
Just as I predicted, Texas A&M threw a curveball into what otherwise would have been a perfect prediction day. It's one more piece of evidence that Pomeroy might be the most accurate of the three models.
Given that factoid, I guess we should keep our eyes on Oklahoma State at Iowa State and Texas at Missouri this week. Pomeroy is the only one of the three to step out on a limb and take the road team in either instance.
Baylor and K-State look like relatively sure bets to keep their winning streaks going. There is a chance that Texas A&M can upset Kansas, but picking the Jayhawks has been extremely profitable so far — no reason to stop now.
Perhaps the most fascinating game of the week is Oklahoma at Colorado. It's a true sign of how bad things have become in Norman that Colorado, despite a four-game losing streak, appears to be the sounder team coming in and should be favored at home. It would be nice if the Buffs can soften up the Sooners for us.
Cumulative pick record: 47-13 (.783)
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8 percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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