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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.18.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.17.2010)


 

Well, at least the order of standings is starting to reflect the national rankings a little better.

I hope Mizzou enjoyed its stay near the top, because if you click the jump, you'll see that No. 5 looks about right for the Tigers, given the way things stand today.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 15-1 NCAA 4 3 1 W-17 Pittsburgh none Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 15-1 NCAA 3 2 2 W-2 Temple Tennessee Bill Self
Kansas State 3 12-4 NCAA 5 9 8 W-2 Xavier Missouri Frank Martin
Baylor 4 10-6 NCAA 26 27 21 W-1 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 47 12 22 L-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas A&M 6 7-9 NIT 36 39 38 L-2 Clemson Washington Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 7 6-10 NIT 108 67 68 W-1 Bradley Northwestern Greg McDermott
Oklahoma State 8 6-10 NIT 37 56 56 L-2 Texas Tech Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 9 4-12 None 140 95 109 L-1 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 10 4-12 None 52 91 77 L-3 Washington Wichita State Pat Knight
Oklahoma 11 4-12 None 77 90 86 W-2 Oklahoma State San Diego Jeff Capel
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 122 79 85 L-3 USC Creighton Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

The week's big winner did it in a game no one saw. Iowa State shot up to a projected No. 8 seed on the heels of a surprising win in Lincoln. Nebraska is really tanking, to allow the Cyclones to snap an 18-game road losing streak in conference play. I suppose the Clones just got a good vibe from being near their home away from home, Memorial Stadium.

Also falling apart is Oklahoma State, which has shown me virtually nothing. But I still expect the Cowboys to do exactly what they did last year: Avoid bad losses and sneak into the NCAA Tournament with a high RPI and roughly zero quality wins. And don't even get me started on Texas Tech, which finally is being exposed like I suspected they might all the way back before the Wichita State loss.

Oklahoma also continues to inch its way up the chart, thanks to back-to-back "upset" wins at home. I use quotes, because for the teams listed from 5-12, road wins are going to be extremely rare. That's part of what made Iowa State's win on Saturday so shocking. Anyhow, don't worry about the Sooners. They now face road games at Texas A&M and Texas Tech this week, and will be hard-pressed to win either.

Colorado's computer numbers got dinged a bit from losing to us, but after watching the Buffaloes on TV, that team looks a lot closer to 5-11, or even 6-10, than 4-12. Bzdelik's doing a good job with them, but they're still a bit too young and lacking in depth to seriously threaten the upper-half teams.

Don't be fooled by Texas A&M's current projection. The Aggies showed signs of finding themselves against Texas, and I fully expect them to nab at least one upset and get to .500 in conference play. With their schedule and high RPI, that should be good enough to go dancing.

Finally, the conference race. Despite Baylor flip-flopping with Missouri, I personally think it's already down to three teams: Kansas, Kansas State and Texas. Obviously, tonight's game will play a huge role in deciding that race.

Indeed, Texas picked up its first projected loss literally on the eve of the game in question, so here's hoping GAMER and Pomeroy got it right. On the flip side, though, we lost that tie in Sagarin, which puts an L back on our projected resume against KU in Manhattan. But a win over Texas might boost our numbers enough to reverse that yet again, producing a 15-1 Texas, a 14-2 Kansas and a 13-3 K-State that beat both of them. I think I could live with that.

GAMER: Now has K-State beating Texas, Baylor beating K-State and Iowa State beating Oklahoma State.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor beating K-State and Missouri, Oklahoma beating Iowa State and Texas beating Missouri.

Sagarin: Now has Baylor beating K-State, Kansas beating K-State in Manhattan, and Iowa State beating Colorado and Missouri.

 

Self-Evaluation

Another bloody 4-2 week. The pattern is becoming familiar: Botch the OU game and fail to predict a non-Big Four team (i.e., KU, KSU, UT and Baylor) that steals one on the road. I have Missouri to thank in both instances.

The latest models seem to be picking up on one basic truth, though: Don't pick the road team. There are three sets of games, including the one spanning the next three days, where not even one road team is predicted to win. And only the top five are predicted to win more than one road game all season.

Cumulative pick record: 12-5 (.706)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
65 A&M
88 K-State
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
90 Texas
83 I-State
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
01.16
4-2 (.667)
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
63 Tech
89 Kansas
87 K-State
81 Colorado
70 O-State
83 Baylor
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
01.18-01.20
Texas (S)
@ K-State (GP)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
Colorado
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Tech (GPS)
01.23
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ A&M (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
01.25-01.27
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
01.30
Oklahoma
@ Nebraska (GPS)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
02.01-02.03
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
A&M
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
02.06
O-State (P)
@ Tech (GS)
K-State (GPS)
@ I-State
Missouri (GPS)
@ Colorado
Baylor (G)
@ A&M (PS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
02.08-02.10
Kansas
@ Texas (GPS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Nebraska
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.13
Missouri
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M (P)
@ Tech (GS)
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
O-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Colorado (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
02.20
Baylor (G)
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (G)
@ I-State (PS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
02.27
I-State (GS)
@ Colorado (P)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
Missouri (GP)
@ I-State (S)
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Tech
@ Colorado (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)