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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.06.09

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Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 3.5.2009 at 1:53 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Kansas Jayhawks 13 2 24 6
Oklahoma Sooners 12 3 26 4
Missouri Tigers 12 3 25 5
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 9 6 20 9
Texas Longhorns 9 6 20 9
Texas A&M Aggies 8 7 22 8
Kansas St. Wildcats 8 7 20 10
Nebraska Cornhuskers 7 8 17 11
Baylor Bears 5 10 17 12
Iowa St. Cyclones 3 12 14 16
Texas Tech Red Raiders 3 12 13 17
Colorado Buffaloes 1 14 9 20


And then there was one.

One last day of games.

One last edition of Big 12 Outlook.

One week until a champion is crowned and an automatic bid is awarded.

One day after that, K-State will know its tournament fate.

One hell of a week awaits us.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 14-2 8 11 12 L-1 Missouri UMass Bill Self
Missouri 2 13-3 11 10 9 W-1 Kansas Nebraska Mike Anderson
Oklahoma 3 13-3 4 15 8 L-1 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas State 4 9-7 77 38 42 L-1 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Texas 5 9-7 36 27 26 W-1 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 6 9-7 27 33 33 W-6 Texas Baylor Travis Ford
Texas A&M 7 8-8 33 49 46 W-5 Texas Baylor Mark Turgeon
Nebraska 8 7-9 76 67 70 W-1 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Baylor 9 6-10 66 62 56 L-1 Arizona State Iowa State Scott Drew
Iowa State 10 4-12 161 115 117 L-2 Houston SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 3-13 121 94 100 W-1 Kansas Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 231 184 206 L-10 Iowa State Montana State Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

The following seeds are locked: No. 1 Kansas, No. 8 Nebraska, No. 9 Baylor and No. 12 Colorado.

K-State fans should first root for their team to beat Colorado (and if we can't do that, then the hell with the NCAA Tournament, obviously). Following that game, the twinbill of interest will be Texas at Kansas and Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, in which all good K-Staters will be forced to do something despicable, but necessary: root for the Jayhawks and Sooners to win.

That will give us the No. 4 seed, crucial if we are to make an improbable run to the conference finals. Along the way, we will probably have to beat Texas and Kansas. Barring that, we will watch our team secure its third consecutive first-day bye in the Big 12 Tournament only to see as many as three teams below us in the standings go the Big Dance over us.

In other happenings, Kansas' upset loss likely cost the Jayhawks a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while Oklahoma State and Texas A&M continue to be the two hottest teams in the conference and are certainly peaking at the right time (although a favorable schedule helps, obviously).

There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections this week.

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was an oh-so-satisfying 5-1 this week. Alan Voskuil Appreciation Night was the best missed pick I've ever had.

As you can see below, I like all the home teams to win this week, except Texas A&M. Not coincidentally, I'm also rooting for all these outcomes as well, so K-State can receive the No. 4 seed like Outlook has been predicting for the last three weeks.

Cumulative pick record: 70-20 (.778)

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
3-2 (.600)
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
4-1 (.800)
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
6-0 (1.000)
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
3-2 (.600)
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
5-1 (.833)
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
3-3 (.500)
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
4-2 (.667)
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
82 Nebraska
69 Tech
64 O-State
76 A&M
02.02-02.04
4-2 (.667)
75 Kansas
65 Baylor
50 I-State
65 K-State
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado
69 Missouri
65 Texas
80 Tech
81 O-State
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
02.07
4-2 (.667)
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
82 Missouri
68 I-State
65 K-State
60 A&M
67 O-State
78 Kansas
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
76 Baylor
83 Tech
02.09-02.11
5-0 (1.000)
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
74 O-State
99 Texas
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor
42 Colorado
70 I-State
73 Tech
85 K-State
02.14
6-0 (1.000)
68 A&M
72 Baylor
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)
67 I-State
86 O-State
85 Kansas
74 K-State
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma
02.16-02.18
3-1 (.750)
66 Texas
81 A&M
55 I-State
72 Kansas
41 Colorado
46 Nebraska
92 O-State
82 Tech
02.21
6-0 (1.000)
66 Missouri
53 Colorado
50 K-State
46 I-State
53 Nebraska
70 Kansas
74 Baylor
84 O-State
79 A&M
73 Tech
68 Oklahoma
73 Texas
02.23-02.25
3-3 (.500)
87 Kansas
78 Oklahoma
62 Baylor
71 I-State
57 A&M
55 Nebraska
76 O-State
55 Colorado
74 K-State
94 Missouri
81 Tech
87 Texas
02.28-03.01
6-0 (1.000)
57 Colorado
75 Baylor
69 I-State
87 A&M
72 Nebraska
77 K-State
59 Texas
68 O-State
78 Oklahoma
63 Tech
65 Missouri
90 Kansas
03.02-03.04
5-1 (.833)
57 Baylor
73 Texas
71 K-State
77 O-State
72 A&M
66 Colorado
65 Kansas
84 Tech
64 Oklahoma
73 Missouri
61 I-State
77 Nebraska
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)