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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.03.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 3.2.2009 at 1:15 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Kansas Jayhawks 13 1 24 5
Oklahoma Sooners 12 2 26 3
Missouri Tigers 11 3 24 5
Kansas St. Wildcats 8 6 20 9
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 8 6 19 9
Texas Longhorns 8 6 19 9
Texas A&M Aggies 7 7 21 8
Nebraska Cornhuskers 6 8 16 11
Baylor Bears 5 9 17 11
Iowa St. Cyclones 3 11 14 15
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2 12 12 17
Colorado Buffaloes 1 13 9 19


A day late and a dollar short? Not really, considering that I had to wait for the Jayhawks and the Tigers to play their little Border Showdown or whatever ridiculously PC name they came up with this year for that rivalry.

Texas just put the finishing touches on Baylor's 10th conference loss, and Texas A&M should dispatch Colorado with ease, so Kansas State at Oklahoma State is clearly the premier game of the final midweek in Big 12 play. The winner keeps its NCAA hopes alive; the loser begins to modify its dreams to include visions of Madison Square Garden.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 15-1 7 6 9 W-5 Missouri UMass Bill Self
Missouri 2 13-3 13 10 12 L-1 Kansas Nebraska Mike Anderson
Oklahoma 3 13-3 5 17 8 W-1 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas State 4 9-7 73 39 41 W-1 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Texas 5 9-7 38 29 28 L-1 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 6 9-7 31 37 35 W-5 Texas Baylor Travis Ford
Texas A&M 7 8-8 35 49 49 W-4 Texas Baylor Mark Turgeon
Nebraska 8 7-9 74 68 70 L-3 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Baylor 9 6-10 63 55 56 W-1 Arizona State Texas Tech Scott Drew
Iowa State 10 4-12 152 102 113 L-1 Baylor SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 135 111 117 L-6 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 230 180 204 L-9 Iowa State Montana State Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

As we head down the home stretch, things are settling into place. The logjam at 8-6 (now 9-6 for Texas) is projected forward, as all three teams are predicted to go 1-1 this week. Should any of them buck that trend, it will probably mean an NCAA berth.

One key event that happened on Saturday: K-State's win over Nebraska all but locks up a No. 4 seed for the Cats no matter what happens tonight. Texas would have to win in Lawrence (unlikely) or Oklahoma State would have to win in Norman (equally unlikely) to prevent that outcome now.

Watch out for Texas A&M this week. A road win at Colorado will give them a five-game winning streak and a full head of steam. Although Missouri is projected to beat Oklahoma, no one would be surprised to see them finally lose at home to the Sooners. If the Tigers go into Reed Arena with a two-game losing streak and a lack of confidence, the Aggies will probably pull the upset. Turgeon's team can make up a lot of ground this week.

There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections after this weekend.

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook had a nice bounce-back this weekend, scoring its fifth perfect edition of the season.

As you can see below, I like red-hot Kansas to win at woeful Texas Tech and only-slightly-less-hot Texas A&M to win at even-more-woeful Colorado, while the other four home teams are expected to win this week.

With Texas' win over Baylor, Outlook is already 1-for-1, but I'm hoping for a stumble tonight. My gut tells me we are going to find a way to go 10-6. Also, with Blake Griffin back and not missing a beat, Missouri's home streak might be in serious jeopardy for only the second time this season, and I'm not sure Zaire Taylor has another crazy shot in his pocket for this one.

Cumulative pick record: 65-19 (.774)

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
3-2 (.600)
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
4-1 (.800)
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
6-0 (1.000)
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
3-2 (.600)
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
5-1 (.833)
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
3-3 (.500)
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
4-2 (.667)
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
82 Nebraska
69 Tech
64 O-State
76 A&M
02.02-02.04
4-2 (.667)
75 Kansas
65 Baylor
50 I-State
65 K-State
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado
69 Missouri
65 Texas
80 Tech
81 O-State
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
02.07
4-2 (.667)
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
82 Missouri
68 I-State
65 K-State
60 A&M
67 O-State
78 Kansas
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
76 Baylor
83 Tech
02.09-02.11
5-0 (1.000)
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
74 O-State
99 Texas
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor
42 Colorado
70 I-State
73 Tech
85 K-State
02.14
6-0 (1.000)
68 A&M
72 Baylor
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)
67 I-State
86 O-State
85 Kansas
74 K-State
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma
02.16-02.18
3-1 (.750)
66 Texas
81 A&M
55 I-State
72 Kansas
41 Colorado
46 Nebraska
92 O-State
82 Tech
02.21
6-0 (1.000)
66 Missouri
53 Colorado
50 K-State
46 I-State
53 Nebraska
70 Kansas
74 Baylor
84 O-State
79 A&M
73 Tech
68 Oklahoma
73 Texas
02.23-02.25
3-3 (.500)
87 Kansas
78 Oklahoma
62 Baylor
71 I-State
57 A&M
55 Nebraska
76 O-State
55 Colorado
74 K-State
94 Missouri
81 Tech
87 Texas
02.28-03.01
6-0 (1.000)
57 Colorado
75 Baylor
69 I-State
87 A&M
72 Nebraska
77 K-State
59 Texas
68 O-State
78 Oklahoma
63 Tech
65 Missouri
90 Kansas
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)