As a K-State fan, I have to say - the events that took place Monday and Wednesday really, really sucked.
As the proprietor of Big 12 Outlook, I'm even more unhappy. Hit the jump to see how I whiffed on half my predictions this week.
|
Seed* |
Record* |
RPI |
Pomeroy |
Sagarin |
Streak |
Best Win** |
Worst Loss** |
Coach |
| Kansas |
1 |
15-1 |
7 |
10 |
9 |
W-4 |
Washington |
UMass |
Bill Self |
| Missouri |
2 |
13-3 |
12 |
8 |
10 |
W-7 |
Kansas |
Nebraska |
Mike Anderson |
| Oklahoma |
3 |
13-3 |
4 |
19 |
7 |
L-2 |
Purdue |
Arkansas |
Jeff Capel |
| Kansas State |
4 |
9-7 |
77 |
39 |
45 |
L-1 |
Missouri |
Oregon |
Frank Martin |
| Texas |
5 |
9-7 |
38 |
29 |
27 |
W-2 |
UCLA |
Arkansas |
Rick Barnes |
| Oklahoma State |
6 |
9-7 |
32 |
40 |
36 |
W-4 |
Texas A&M |
Baylor |
Travis Ford |
| Texas A&M |
7 |
8-8 |
34 |
55 |
53 |
W-3 |
Texas |
Baylor |
Mark Turgeon |
| Nebraska |
8 |
7-9 |
72 |
67 |
70 |
L-2 |
Missouri |
UMBC |
Doc Sadler |
| Baylor |
9 |
6-10 |
60 |
57 |
55 |
L-2 |
Arizona State |
Texas Tech |
Scott Drew |
| Iowa State |
10 |
4-12 |
146 |
97 |
105 |
W-1 |
Houston |
SDSU |
Greg McDermott |
| Texas Tech |
11 |
2-14 |
132 |
108 |
112 |
L-5 |
New Mexico |
Lamar |
Pat Knight |
| Colorado |
12 |
1-15 |
228 |
174 |
204 |
L-8 |
Iowa State |
Montana State |
Jeff Bzdelik |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating
Discussion
It's time to do the Bill Self Shuffle! Kansas' win in Norman reaffirmed their status as the superpower of the league and likely paved the way to a fifth straight conference championship for the Jayhawks.
That development, coupled with Missouri's projected win over Oklahoma next Wednesday, means that Texas cost the Sooners a trophy, two spots on the seedline in Oklahoma City and probably a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance when they knocked Blake Griffin silly. Ouch.
The other major change this week was Texas A&M's unexpected win in Lincoln, which allowed them to jump the Huskers for the No. 7 seed. K-State's loss in Columbia, while ugly, had little impact on the projections as Big 12 Outlook has been predicting that outcome all season.
I still think Oklahoma State is something of a fraud, having built its recent streak with wins over hapless teams like Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State and Texas Tech. I stand by my prediction that we will win in Stillwater to finish 10-6 and claim a first-round bye. Have faith, Wildcats.
A quick analysis of the above chart yields three categories:
-
THE GOOD: Obviously Kansas and Missouri are the hottest teams in the Big 12, and Oklahoma State is the trendy bubble pick despite having beat no one of substance, but Iowa State and Texas A&M saw very nice bumps to their projected records and computer numbers this week, too.
-
THE BAD: Clearly, Oklahoma had a bad week. Nebraska, once one of the surprises of the league, has come back to earth a little by losing three of its last four. And despite its two-game winning streak, Texas' numbers continue to plummet, which probably guarantees them a No. 9 seed or lower in the NCAA Tournament.
-
THE UGLY: Colorado is quite possibly one of the worst modern college basketball teams I have seen. Yet they might actually be able to win Saturday in Waco, which says a lot about how bad Baylor is playing. Just how bad are the Bears? Consider that their Pomeroy ranking dropped sufficiently this week to label them the worst loss Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have suffered. Hell, Iowa State beat them and they aren't even considered the Cyclones' best win! That's appalling...
There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections this week.
Self-Evaluation
Big 12 Outlook was a paltry 3-3 this week, missing every Monday and Tuesday game. This ties the 01.29.09 edition as my worst predictive effort yet.
As you can see below, I like Oklahoma to win at Texas Tech, even though they are shorthanded without Blake Griffin and Juan Pattillo, while the other five home teams should be able to defend their courts on Saturday.
On paper, Missouri and Texas would seem to be the biggest threats to pull a road upset, but I say watch out for Colorado. Baylor is playing like complete crap, having lost eight of their last nine, and if the Buffaloes are ever going to win a conference road game, this might be the one.
Cumulative pick record: 59-19 (.756)
Key
Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.
Predicted Outcomes
| 01.10 |
| 3-2 (.600) |
61 Tech
73 Baylor
|
67 I-State
75 Texas
|
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State |
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
|
61 A&M
72 O-State
|
|
| 01.12-01.14 |
| 4-1 (.800) |
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
|
71 K-State
87 Kansas
|
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
|
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
|
73 Baylor
84 A&M
|
|
| 01.17 |
| 6-0 (1.000) |
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT) |
73 Kansas
56 Colorado |
46 I-State
77 Missouri
|
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
|
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M |
71 Texas
49 Tech |
|
| 01.19-01.21 |
| 3-2 (.600) |
53 A&M
73 Kansas
|
55 Colorado
63 Tech
|
83 Baylor
65 K-State |
97 Missouri
95 O-State |
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
|
|
| 01.24 |
| 5-1 (.833) |
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT) |
82 Kansas
67 I-State |
86 Tech
97 Missouri
|
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT) |
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
|
58 A&M
67 Texas
|
|
| 01.26-01.28 |
| 3-3 (.500) |
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State |
78 Texas
72 Baylor |
49 I-State
55 Colorado
|
72 Missouri
88 K-State
|
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska |
70 Tech
79 A&M
|
|
| 01.31 |
| 4-2 (.667) |
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State |
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT) |
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
|
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
|
82 Nebraska
69 Tech |
64 O-State
76 A&M
|
|
| 02.02-02.04 |
| 4-2 (.667) |
75 Kansas
65 Baylor |
50 I-State
65 K-State
|
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado |
69 Missouri
65 Texas |
80 Tech
81 O-State
|
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
|
|
| 02.07 |
| 4-2 (.667) |
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
|
82 Missouri
68 I-State |
65 K-State
60 A&M |
67 O-State
78 Kansas
|
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
|
76 Baylor
83 Tech
|
|
| 02.09-02.11 |
| 5-0 (1.000) |
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
|
74 O-State
99 Texas
|
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor |
42 Colorado
70 I-State
|
73 Tech
85 K-State
|
|
| 02.14 |
| 6-0 (1.000) |
68 A&M
72 Baylor
|
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT) |
67 I-State
86 O-State
|
85 Kansas
74 K-State |
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri
|
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma
|
|
| 02.16-02.18 |
| 3-1 (.750) |
66 Texas
81 A&M
|
55 I-State
72 Kansas
|
41 Colorado
46 Nebraska
|
92 O-State
82 Tech |
|
| 02.21 |
| 6-0 (1.000) |
66 Missouri
53 Colorado |
50 K-State
46 I-State |
53 Nebraska
70 Kansas
|
74 Baylor
84 O-State
|
79 A&M
73 Tech |
68 Oklahoma
73 Texas
|
|
| 02.23-02.25 |
| 3-3 (.500) |
87 Kansas
78 Oklahoma |
62 Baylor
71 I-State
|
57 A&M
55 Nebraska |
76 O-State
55 Colorado |
74 K-State
94 Missouri
|
81 Tech
87 Texas
|
|
| 02.28-03.01 |
|
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS) |
I-State
@ A&M (PS) |
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS) |
Texas
@ O-State (PS) |
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech |
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS) |
|
| 03.02-03.04 |
|
Baylor
@ Texas (PS) |
K-State
@ O-State (PS) |
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado |
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech |
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS) |
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS) |
|
| 03.07 |
|
Tech
@ I-State (PS) |
Colorado
@ K-State (PS) |
Texas
@ Kansas (PS) |
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M |
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS) |
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS) |
|
