BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.23.09

Well, Big 12 Outlook was 6-0 again, and I totally called that Texas win, but I'll try to keep my smug satisfaction to a minimum. Oklahoma's loss means tonight's game is well and truly for the Big 12 Championship, except for that nagging little Missouri team that still gets to play both teams. Maybe K-State can do something about that Wednesday to help tonight's victor?

As for the Cats, our tourney prospects remain the same: Win and you're in, lose and you have no one to blame but yourself. Texas is keeping pace with us for now, but their closing schedule is harder than ours and besides - if we do what we need to do, the Big 12 will be a 5-bid league and it won't matter anyway. At least our Texas win carries more weight; we and Missouri are the only teams to win there in three years - not Kansas, not Oklahoma, not Texas A&M.

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

Discussion

The convenient side effect of a 6-0 week is that I don't have to spend very much time discussing the newest projections, since there were absolutely no changes. I had already accounted for Texas beating Oklahoma, and the Cats still end up with the No. 4 seed despite projected losses to both Missouri and Oklahoma State.

I'll go on record right now, though, as saying that K-State will win one of those two games and finish 10-6 for the third consecutive season. Call it a gut feeling, if you want. I don't think we're quite good enough to finish 11-5, and frankly I expect to lose to a good Missouri team on Wednesday, but I also don't think we're as bad as 9-7, either. We'll need to win a conference tournament game against either Colorado or Texas (preferably Texas) to feel safe, I think.

There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections after Saturday.

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was 6-0 this week. Not too much else to say, I guess.

As you can see below, I like Baylor and Oklahoma State to win road games against the bottom-feeders of the North (although I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see either team lose, since neither of them is inclined to play defense very often), while Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas should hold serve at home (although I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see any of them lose, except Texas, who should roll the Dead Faders in the Drum).

Cumulative pick record: 56-16 (.778)

Key

• P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
• R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
• S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

Predicted Outcomes