Yes, ESPN, those are the correct standings. Your eyes do not deceive you - Kansas State is actually ahead of Texas, despite your pathetic attempt Wednesday night to mislead viewers across the nation into thinking it was the other way around. Nice try, Worldwide Bleater.
On an unrelated note, you might have noticed I have not actually posted any of Protest Playoff '03 despite promising to do so earlier in the week. I apologize for that; turns out that even after a trial, there is sometimes something called a "penalty phase," which in this case lasted until almost Wednesday.
The good news is that it's finally all over and my work schedule has returned to something resembling sanity, so I solemnly promise to maintain a normal blogging schedule starting next week.
In the meantime, hit the jump to read another action-packed (not really) edition of Big 12 Outlook.
| Seed* | Record* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Oklahoma | 1 | 14-2 | 2 | 17 | 5 | W-13 | Purdue | Arkansas | Jeff Capel |
| Kansas | 2 | 14-2 | 12 | 11 | 15 | W-2 | Washington | UMass | Bill Self |
| Missouri | 3 | 13-3 | 13 | 8 | 11 | W-5 | Kansas | Nebraska | Mike Anderson |
| Kansas State | 4 | 9-7 | 81 | 36 | 48 | W-1 | Missouri | Oregon | Frank Martin |
| Texas | 5 | 9-7 | 47 | 25 | 30 | L-1 | UCLA | Arkansas | Rick Barnes |
| Oklahoma State | 6 | 9-7 | 33 | 46 | 41 | W-2 | Tulsa | Texas A&M | Travis Ford |
| Nebraska | 7 | 8-8 | 64 | 64 | 68 | W-1 | Missouri | UMBC | Doc Sadler |
| Texas A&M | 8 | 7-9 | 45 | 63 | 60 | W-1 | Texas | Tulsa | Mark Turgeon |
| Baylor | 9 | 7-9 | 52 | 53 | 44 | W-1 | Arizona State | Texas Tech | Scott Drew |
| Iowa State | 10 | 3-13 | 135 | 100 | 109 | L-2 | Houston | SDSU | Greg McDermott |
| Texas Tech | 11 | 2-14 | 121 | 108 | 105 | L-3 | New Mexico | Lamar | Pat Knight |
| Colorado | 12 | 1-15 | 223 | 164 | 198 | L-6 | Iowa State | Montana State | Jeff Bzdelik |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating
Discussion
I'd like to address this question to the Eyes of Texas, since they are always upon the Longhorns: What the hell is going on down there?
Texas' latest underachieving loss has two major implications for a bracket that is otherwise locking in pretty nicely.
First, it reduces Texas' projected record to 9-7 and drops them into a complicated three-way tie with Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Said tie is broken first between the two South teams (who each won at home against the other) by South Division record; Texas' is better. The Wildcats then win the head-to-head tiebreaker against their bitch...uh, I mean rival.
Second, it bumps Texas A&M up out of that No. 9 seed, which they have been occupying for a seeming eternity. The unexpected win Monday night improves their projected record to 7-9, which moves them into a tie with a Baylor team that they beat in College Station but lost to in Waco. Again, the tie is broken by South Division record.
Bonus discussion: Baylor was picked third in the preseason predictions. If they actually finish ninth, Scott Drew should be on the hot seat, in spite of the fact that he rebuilt that team from the ashes. Don't they lose 4+ seniors after this season? Pathetic.
Although the North is doing slightly better than the South this season, the fact that we are stuck with both Colorado and Iowa State can't be helping our computer numbers at all. I'm pretty much done talking about either of those teams, or the embarrassing mess that is Texas Tech basketball. Can we downsize to the Big 9 in these tough economic times?
As for K-State's tournament hopes, I really won't feel comfortable unless we finish 10-6 or better and at least one game ahead of Texas, if not more. Even then, we're going to need to win at least one game in Oklahoma City. One thing is certain: I hope it is true that the RPI is not a tool the committee finds very useful, because ours stinks. It is also totally out of whack with our other computer numbers and seems to have no correlation to how well this team is actually playing right now. Maybe Ken Pomeroy is right...
Based on this week's results, Pomeroy now projects Oklahoma State to beat Texas in Stillwater. There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.
There were no changes in the Sagarin projections this week.
Self-Evaluation
Big 12 Outlook was 3-1 this week. The implications of Texas' surprising loss in College Station are far-ranging, of course. I'm hopeful that at some point the computers will realize that Texas is not as good this year as their name would lead you to think they should be. In the meantime, though, I suppose we can be thankful that they still count as a quality win for us.
Please note that I have added, in italics, my correct-incorrect pick record for each week to the predicted outcomes chart, as well as a percentage of correct predictions. I'll also be adding the cumulative total to this section, which you might notice is the very next paragraph. Both additions are something I should have done long ago.
Cumulative pick record: 50-16 (.758)
Normally, I won't comment on the above total, but since this is the first edition in which it appears, I will today. Big 12 Outlook is predicting outcomes with approximately 75 percent accuracy. It has had four "perfect" editions, and its worst performance was a 3-3 edition, which is the only time Outlook has incorrectly picked more than two outcomes.
That's pretty good, but I'd like to do better. Anyone can predict blowouts over crap teams like Colorado and Iowa State. My goal is to eventually tweak this thing to the point where it has a better-than-average chance of predicting "upsets" like Nebraska over Missouri in Lincoln, Kansas State over Texas or Texas A&M over Texas in College Station.
To that end, any reader feedback regarding other predictive systems of which they might be aware is always welcome. I'm considering incorporating Colley Matrix and Massey next season, but I'd like to keep this thing simple, if only to save myself from spending hours on early editions.
Anyhow, Outlook likes Kansas State, Missouri and Texas A&M to win on the road Saturday against the crappy bottom-feeders of the conference, while Kansas and Oklahoma State should win at home.
That Oklahoma-Texas game will be very interesting. On paper, Oklahoma should win, but I tend to side with Pomeroy and with chance. Texas badly needs this win to stay on the good side of the bubble, and this is the one opponent for whom they really get motivated all year. I think they pull the upset in Austin.
Key
- P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
- S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)
Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.
Predicted Outcomes
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|