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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.20.09

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Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 2.19.2009 at 1:28 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 11 0 25 1
Kansas Jayhawks 10 1 21 5
Missouri Tigers 9 2 22 4
Kansas St. Wildcats 6 5 18 8
Texas Longhorns 6 5 17 8
Nebraska Cornhuskers 6 5 16 8
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 5 6 16 9
Texas A&M Aggies 4 7 18 8
Baylor Bears 4 7 16 9
Iowa St. Cyclones 2 9 13 13
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2 9 12 14
Colorado Buffaloes 1 10 9 16


Yes, ESPN, those are the correct standings. Your eyes do not deceive you - Kansas State is actually ahead of Texas, despite your pathetic attempt Wednesday night to mislead viewers across the nation into thinking it was the other way around. Nice try, Worldwide Bleater.

On an unrelated note, you might have noticed I have not actually posted any of Protest Playoff '03 despite promising to do so earlier in the week. I apologize for that; turns out that even after a trial, there is sometimes something called a "penalty phase," which in this case lasted until almost Wednesday.

The good news is that it's finally all over and my work schedule has returned to something resembling sanity, so I solemnly promise to maintain a normal blogging schedule starting next week.

In the meantime, hit the jump to read another action-packed (not really) edition of Big 12 Outlook.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 14-2 2 17 5 W-13 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas 2 14-2 12 11 15 W-2 Washington UMass Bill Self
Missouri 3 13-3 13 8 11 W-5 Kansas Nebraska Mike Anderson
Kansas State 4 9-7 81 36 48 W-1 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Texas 5 9-7 47 25 30 L-1 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 6 9-7 33 46 41 W-2 Tulsa Texas A&M Travis Ford
Nebraska 7 8-8 64 64 68 W-1 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Texas A&M 8 7-9 45 63 60 W-1 Texas Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Baylor 9 7-9 52 53 44 W-1 Arizona State Texas Tech Scott Drew
Iowa State 10 3-13 135 100 109 L-2 Houston SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 121 108 105 L-3 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 223 164 198 L-6 Iowa State Montana State Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

I'd like to address this question to the Eyes of Texas, since they are always upon the Longhorns: What the hell is going on down there?

Texas' latest underachieving loss has two major implications for a bracket that is otherwise locking in pretty nicely.

First, it reduces Texas' projected record to 9-7 and drops them into a complicated three-way tie with Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Said tie is broken first between the two South teams (who each won at home against the other) by South Division record; Texas' is better. The Wildcats then win the head-to-head tiebreaker against their bitch...uh, I mean rival.

Second, it bumps Texas A&M up out of that No. 9 seed, which they have been occupying for a seeming eternity. The unexpected win Monday night improves their projected record to 7-9, which moves them into a tie with a Baylor team that they beat in College Station but lost to in Waco. Again, the tie is broken by South Division record.

Bonus discussion: Baylor was picked third in the preseason predictions. If they actually finish ninth, Scott Drew should be on the hot seat, in spite of the fact that he rebuilt that team from the ashes. Don't they lose 4+ seniors after this season? Pathetic.

Although the North is doing slightly better than the South this season, the fact that we are stuck with both Colorado and Iowa State can't be helping our computer numbers at all. I'm pretty much done talking about either of those teams, or the embarrassing mess that is Texas Tech basketball. Can we downsize to the Big 9 in these tough economic times?

As for K-State's tournament hopes, I really won't feel comfortable unless we finish 10-6 or better and at least one game ahead of Texas, if not more. Even then, we're going to need to win at least one game in Oklahoma City. One thing is certain: I hope it is true that the RPI is not a tool the committee finds very useful, because ours stinks. It is also totally out of whack with our other computer numbers and seems to have no correlation to how well this team is actually playing right now. Maybe Ken Pomeroy is right...

Based on this week's results, Pomeroy now projects Oklahoma State to beat Texas in Stillwater. There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.

There were no changes in the Sagarin projections this week.

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was 3-1 this week. The implications of Texas' surprising loss in College Station are far-ranging, of course. I'm hopeful that at some point the computers will realize that Texas is not as good this year as their name would lead you to think they should be. In the meantime, though, I suppose we can be thankful that they still count as a quality win for us.

Please note that I have added, in italics, my correct-incorrect pick record for each week to the predicted outcomes chart, as well as a percentage of correct predictions. I'll also be adding the cumulative total to this section, which you might notice is the very next paragraph. Both additions are something I should have done long ago.

Cumulative pick record: 50-16 (.758)

Normally, I won't comment on the above total, but since this is the first edition in which it appears, I will today. Big 12 Outlook is predicting outcomes with approximately 75 percent accuracy. It has had four "perfect" editions, and its worst performance was a 3-3 edition, which is the only time Outlook has incorrectly picked more than two outcomes.

That's pretty good, but I'd like to do better. Anyone can predict blowouts over crap teams like Colorado and Iowa State. My goal is to eventually tweak this thing to the point where it has a better-than-average chance of predicting "upsets" like Nebraska over Missouri in Lincoln, Kansas State over Texas or Texas A&M over Texas in College Station.

To that end, any reader feedback regarding other predictive systems of which they might be aware is always welcome. I'm considering incorporating Colley Matrix and Massey next season, but I'd like to keep this thing simple, if only to save myself from spending hours on early editions.

Anyhow, Outlook likes Kansas State, Missouri and Texas A&M to win on the road Saturday against the crappy bottom-feeders of the conference, while Kansas and Oklahoma State should win at home.

That Oklahoma-Texas game will be very interesting. On paper, Oklahoma should win, but I tend to side with Pomeroy and with chance. Texas badly needs this win to stay on the good side of the bubble, and this is the one opponent for whom they really get motivated all year. I think they pull the upset in Austin.

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
3-2 (.600)
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
4-1 (.800)
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
6-0 (1.000)
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
3-2 (.600)
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
5-1 (.833)
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
3-3 (.500)
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
4-2 (.667)
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
82 Nebraska
69 Tech
64 O-State
76 A&M
02.02-02.04
4-2 (.667)
75 Kansas
65 Baylor
50 I-State
65 K-State
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado
69 Missouri
65 Texas
80 Tech
81 O-State
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
02.07
4-2 (.667)
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
82 Missouri
68 I-State
65 K-State
60 A&M
67 O-State
78 Kansas
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
76 Baylor
83 Tech
02.09-02.11
5-0 (1.000)
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
74 O-State
99 Texas
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor
42 Colorado
70 I-State
73 Tech
85 K-State
02.14
6-0 (1.000)
68 A&M
72 Baylor
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)
67 I-State
86 O-State
85 Kansas
74 K-State
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma
02.16-02.18
3-1 (.750)
66 Texas
81 A&M
55 I-State
72 Kansas
41 Colorado
46 Nebraska
92 O-State
82 Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State (PS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma (S)
@ Texas (PR)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)