I'd like to offer some kind of reasoned and insightful analysis for this edition of Big 12 Outlook, but all I could come up with is this:
Jayhawks, burn in Hell.
|
Seed* |
Record* |
RPI |
Pomeroy |
Sagarin |
Streak |
Best Win** |
Worst Loss** |
Coach |
| Oklahoma |
1 |
14-2 |
2 |
14 |
5 |
W-13 |
Purdue |
Arkansas |
Jeff Capel |
| Kansas |
2 |
14-2 |
12 |
11 |
17 |
W-1 |
Washington |
UMass |
Bill Self |
| Missouri |
3 |
13-3 |
17 |
8 |
10 |
W-5 |
Kansas |
Nebraska |
Mike Anderson |
| Texas |
4 |
11-5 |
41 |
25 |
28 |
W-2 |
UCLA |
Arkansas |
Rick Barnes |
| Kansas State |
5 |
9-7 |
77 |
38 |
50 |
L-1 |
Missouri |
Oregon |
Frank Martin |
| Oklahoma State |
6 |
8-8 |
38 |
48 |
45 |
W-1 |
Tulsa |
Texas A&M |
Travis Ford |
| Nebraska |
7 |
8-8 |
64 |
63 |
68 |
L-1 |
Missouri |
UMBC |
Doc Sadler |
| Baylor |
8 |
7-9 |
52 |
54 |
46 |
W-1 |
Arizona State |
Texas Tech |
Scott Drew |
| Texas A&M |
9 |
6-10 |
51 |
69 |
65 |
L-3 |
Arizona |
Tulsa |
Mark Turgeon |
| Iowa State |
10 |
3-13 |
141 |
100 |
107 |
L-1 |
Houston |
SDSU |
Greg McDermott |
| Texas Tech |
11 |
2-14 |
112 |
107 |
102 |
L-2 |
New Mexico |
Lamar |
Pat Knight |
| Colorado |
12 |
1-15 |
220 |
163 |
194 |
L-5 |
Iowa State |
Montana State |
Jeff Bzdelik |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating
Discussion
I guess the upside to an 11-0 week on picks is that the projections don't change at all. We're in a dogfight with Texas for the No. 4 seed, and that's all there is to it. However, I almost think the No. 5 seed would be better because it would give us an easy extra win over Colorado. We need all the wins we can get now to impress the committee.
I still think we can steal a game at either Columbia or Stillwater to get to 10-6 for the third straight season, but if Texas gets that win over Oklahoma, 10-6 still may not get us a bye. At any rate, it's clear we are going to finish much better than where we were picked preseason, as long as we don't fall apart in the wake of this latest loss.
There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections this week.
Self-Evaluation
Big 12 Outlook was 6-0 again on Saturday. That's 11-0 for the week in total, if you're counting. Unfortunately, both Pomeroy and Sagarin were right about KU's chances in Manhattan. This won't be the start of another streak, though. These players will play harder than you can imagine when next the Jayhawks visit the Octagon of Doom.
As you can see below, Big 12 Outlook likes Kansas and Nebraska to win home games against woeful Iowa State and Colorado, as well as Oklahoma State and Texas to nab crucial road wins against rivals Texas Tech and Texas A&M.
Key
Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.
Predicted Outcomes
| 01.10 |
61 Tech
73 Baylor
|
67 I-State
75 Texas
|
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State |
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
|
61 A&M
72 O-State
|
|
| 01.12-01.14 |
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
|
71 K-State
87 Kansas
|
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
|
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
|
73 Baylor
84 A&M
|
|
| 01.17 |
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT) |
73 Kansas
56 Colorado |
46 I-State
77 Missouri
|
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
|
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M |
71 Texas
49 Tech |
|
| 01.19-01.21 |
53 A&M
73 Kansas
|
55 Colorado
63 Tech
|
83 Baylor
65 K-State |
97 Missouri
95 O-State |
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
|
|
| 01.24 |
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT) |
82 Kansas
67 I-State |
86 Tech
97 Missouri
|
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT) |
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
|
58 A&M
67 Texas
|
|
| 01.26-01.28 |
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State |
78 Texas
72 Baylor |
49 I-State
55 Colorado
|
72 Missouri
88 K-State
|
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska |
70 Tech
79 A&M
|
|
| 01.31 |
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State |
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT) |
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
|
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
|
82 Nebraska
69 Tech |
64 O-State
76 A&M
|
|
| 02.02-02.04 |
75 Kansas
65 Baylor |
50 I-State
65 K-State
|
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado |
69 Missouri
65 Texas |
80 Tech
81 O-State
|
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
|
|
| 02.07 |
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
|
82 Missouri
68 I-State |
65 K-State
60 A&M |
67 O-State
78 Kansas
|
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
|
76 Baylor
83 Tech
|
|
| 02.09-02.11 |
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
|
74 O-State
99 Texas
|
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor |
42 Colorado
70 I-State
|
73 Tech
85 K-State
|
|
| 02.14 |
68 A&M
72 Baylor
|
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT) |
67 I-State
86 O-State
|
85 Kansas
74 K-State |
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri
|
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma
|
|
| 02.16-02.18 |
Texas (PS)
@ A&M |
I-State
@ Kansas (PS) |
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS) |
O-State (PS)
@ Tech |
|
| 02.21 |
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado |
K-State (PS)
@ I-State |
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS) |
Baylor
@ O-State (PS) |
A&M (PS)
@ Tech |
Oklahoma (S)
@ Texas (PR) |
|
| 02.23-02.25 |
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS) |
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State |
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS) |
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado |
K-State
@ Missouri (PS) |
Tech
@ Texas (PS) |
|
| 02.28-03.01 |
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS) |
I-State
@ A&M (PS) |
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS) |
Texas (PR)
@ O-State (S) |
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech |
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS) |
|
| 03.02-03.04 |
Baylor
@ Texas (PS) |
K-State
@ O-State (PS) |
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado |
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech |
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS) |
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS) |
|
| 03.07 |
Tech
@ I-State (PS) |
Colorado
@ K-State (PS) |
Texas
@ Kansas (PS) |
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M |
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS) |
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS) |
|
