BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.13.09

Well, Cats - just keep doing what you're doing. A No. 4 seed is directly in our cross-hairs if we can get the big win on Saturday. We need to hold serve at home and steal at least one win on the road. That would get us to 10-6 and I think the way things are going, we would be a solid tournament team even with our non-con resume.

Don't believe me? Take a look at the ESPN Bubble Watch. In the last month, K-State has been way more impressive than all but a handful of those bubble teams. Keep it up, and we will be one of the three hottest teams in the country down the stretch. It will take care of itself. Our motto needs to be: Stay ahead of Nebraska and Texas.

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

Discussion

As you can see, there isn't much to discuss this week. Things are beginning to really lock in now, and barring any earth-shaking upsets, this is roughly how I expect the field to look in early March, give or take a few seeds here or there.

The one big exception is this week's only movement. Obviously, K-State didn't so much fall as get passed by Texas, who picked up a projected road win over Oklahoma State to move to 10-6 and the No. 4 seed. I'm not overly concerned about this; remember that if when K-State beats KU tomorrow, KU will fall into a tie at 13-3 with Mizzou and K-State will move up into a tie at 10-6 with Texas, who they already beat head-to-head. That No. 4 seed is ours, dammit!

Based on this week's results, Pomeroy now predicts Texas to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater. I imagine this change of heart has something to do with the way the Longhorns stampeded over the Cowboys Tuesday night. There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.

There were no changes in the Sagarin projections this week.

Self Evaluation

I think the analysis speaks for itself. (Ha ha, get it? It-self?)

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was 5-0 this week. Not that I'm bragging or anything, as it was pretty easy to pick those five games.

As you can see below, Big 12 Outlook likes four home teams to win this week, with Kansas and Texas pulling out road wins. I emphasize that Outlook likes those picks, because I think Pomeroy and Sagarin are wrong on one point: We're gonna tar and de-feather the Hawks tomorrow.

Key

• P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
• R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
• S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

Predicted Outcomes