In honor of the momentous development that occurred over the weekend, a thing that very few thought possible, I'd like to turn the podium over to Coach Frank Martin briefly and allow him to make a few introductory remarks for this week's edition of Big 12 Outlook. Take it away, Frank:
From 0-4 to 5-4, bitches! I'd like to thank the haters - without you guys, none of this would have been possible. You picked us 8th. Your doubt and lack of support have been instrumental in me getting my team to bust its ass at ever-increasing levels of frenzy. I'd particularly like to thank Dave Armstrong and Reid Gettys. I know I didn't have any faith in myself whatsoever until you guys ponderously decided last Saturday to concede that there is some good coaching happening here.
Also, I want to thank the bandwagon fans. I really appreciate you guys showing up this Saturday to get in the front row thanks to our new random lottery system. Where were you earlier? Oh, well, thanks for coming - yell loud and enjoy the party. Oh, and to you 500 students who haven't claimed your tickets even once this season, you damn sure better not show up in blue Saturday or I will personally break your index fingers. Thanks, and God bless!"
| Seed* | Record* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Oklahoma | 1 | 15-1 | 3 | 18 | 5 | W-11 | Purdue | Arkansas | Jeff Capel |
| Kansas | 2 | 14-2 | 14 | 13 | 18 | W-8 | Washington | UMass | Bill Self |
| Missouri | 3 | 13-3 | 21 | 9 | 12 | W-4 | Texas | Nebraska | Mike Anderson |
| Kansas State | 4 | 9-7 | 70 | 34 | 45 | W-5 | Missouri | Oregon | Frank Martin |
| Texas | 5 | 9-7 | 44 | 27 | 29 | L-3 | UCLA | Arkansas | Rick Barnes |
| Oklahoma State | 6 | 9-7 | 31 | 46 | 43 | L-1 | Tulsa | Texas A&M | Travis Ford |
| Nebraska | 7 | 8-8 | 68 | 59 | 69 | W-3 | Missouri | UMBC | Doc Sadler |
| Baylor | 8 | 7-9 | 56 | 45 | 44 | L-5 | Arizona State | Texas Tech | Scott Drew |
| Texas A&M | 9 | 6-10 | 45 | 73 | 67 | L-2 | LSU | Tulsa | Mark Turgeon |
| Iowa State | 10 | 3-13 | 140 | 122 | 115 | L-6 | Houston | SDSU | Greg McDermott |
| Texas Tech | 11 | 2-14 | 107 | 108 | 99 | W-1 | New Mexico | Lamar | Pat Knight |
| Colorado | 12 | 1-15 | 209 | 145 | 187 | L-3 | Iowa State | Montana State | Jeff Bzdelik |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating
Discussion
First, general trends. The top three seeds appear locked in, as do the bottom four, but oh, what a shuffle in the middle. All six North teams saw an across-the-board incline in their numbers, heralding the rise of the superior division. All but one South team saw an across-the-board decline in their numbers, and Tech was the exception only because it snapped a long losing streak by beating Baylor.
Also, please note that I added streak indicators to each team on the chart so you can see who is hot and who is not. Surprise, surprise - the South owns some of the more embarrassing losing streaks in the conference, thanks to Baylor and Texas, while four of the five hottest teams reside in the North: Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Nebraska.
K-State's record did not change at all, but we shot up to a first-day bye. Thank Texas' three-game slide for that. The tie was broken first between Oklahoma State and Texas on South Division record, and then between K-State and Texas on head-to-head outcome. Keep in mind that I vehemently disagree with Pomeroy and Sagarin on one point: After Saturday, it will become clear to them that K-State will be at least 10-6.
For the first time since I started Big 12 Outlook, there were no changes in either the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections.
Self Evaluation
I think he really could have used some of this tonight:
Self-Evaluation
Big 12 Outlook went 4-2 yet again this week. It failed to account for Texas and Baylor's recent suckiness, which allowed supposedly inferior teams in Nebraska and Texas Tech to overcome them at home, but otherwise the model performed well.
As you can see below, I like four home teams to win this week, with only Oklahoma pulling out a road win over a Baylor squad that is just mailing it in at this point. Hell, the Bears might even fall out of the NIT picture at this rate. Premature evaluation: Since this feature is late today, I can already tell you that it is 1-for-1 this week. Ha ha, Squawks! Hate Week ain't gettin' any easier on Saturday, either!
Iowa State and Texas should end ugly losing streaks thanks to hosting teams that are doing even worse than they are - Colorado and Oklahoma State. Texas Tech had a nice little win Saturday, but they're not going to come into the Octagon of Doom and knock off the hottest team in the conference, on the veritable eve of battle with the hated rival.
Key
- P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
- S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)
Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.
Predicted Outcomes
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