A week ago, K-State had yet to beat a BCS team this season. Well, a lot can change in a week, although one thing remains the same: Kansas and Oklahoma are pulling away from the pack. Two consecutive wins fueled a decent jump in the standings for the Cats, and Colorado also ended a 4-game losing streak.
Baylor and Texas Tech are floundering with two consecutive losses apiece, Iowa State and Nebraska continued their free-falls with three straight defeats, and Oklahoma State has lost three of its last four. How does all this change the Big 12 Outlook?
| Seed* | Record* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Oklahoma | 1 | 15-1 | 3 | 11 | 6 | Purdue | Arkansas | Jeff Capel |
| Kansas | 2 | 13-3 | 25 | 16 | 24 | Washington | Massachusetts | Bill Self |
| Texas | 3 | 13-3 | 14 | 26 | 18 | UCLA | Arkansas | Rick Barnes |
| Missouri | 4 | 11-5 | 38 | 14 | 23 | USC | Nebraska | Mike Anderson |
| Oklahoma State | 5 | 9-7 | 28 | 36 | 37 | Tulsa | Baylor | Travis Ford |
| Baylor | 6 | 9-7 | 31 | 30 | 25 | Arizona State | Texas A&M | Scott Drew |
| Kansas State | 7 | 8-8 | 84 | 39 | 63 | Missouri | Oregon | Frank Martin |
| Nebraska | 8 | 6-10 | 94 | 64 | 81 | Missouri | UMBC | Doc Sadler |
| Texas A&M | 9 | 6-10 | 42 | 82 | 65 | Baylor | Tulsa | Mark Turgeon |
| Iowa State | 10 | 3-13 | 137 | 112 | 115 | Houston | Hawai'i | Greg McDermott |
| Texas Tech | 11 | 2-14 | 97 | 109 | 104 | New Mexico | Lamar | Pat Knight |
| Colorado | 12 | 1-15 | 224 | 177 | 192 | Iowa State | SMU | Jeff Bzdelik |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating
Discussion
Needless to say, Big 12 Outlook's failure to predict several of the week's outcomes correctly means there are some changes in this edition. The one constant, though, is Oklahoma. The Sooners are riding a 7-game winning streak and are clearly the class of the conference.
Kansas and Texas are not far behind, however, as both saw gains across the board to all computer numbers. Kansas is still projected to hold the head-to-head edge, though. These three teams remain the only NCAA tournament locks in the Big 12 thus far.
Texas and Missouri essentially switched places, and the Cats had a lot to do with that. They also traded projected records. I predicted earlier in the season that Missouri would slowly drop as they hit the meat of their schedule, but I admit that I lost faith in that prediction over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, it appears to possibly be coming true.
Oklahoma State and Baylor remained in the same positions relative to each other, but each gained a projected loss as their poor performance of late caught up to them. Their losing streaks mean the computer numbers are getting ugly, and each team had better find some wins soon if they want to keep dreaming about the Big Dance.
I am extremely pleased with K-State's current projection. I said last week in the midst of our doldrums that I would be happy with an 8-8 season, a No. 7 seed, and an NIT berth. While that remains true, the nature of Wednesday's big win (K-State's best of the season by far) has me starting to think a little bigger. If K-State can actually beat Texas Saturday, we might see the Cats jump into the top half of the conference projections. If they can hold serve at home, the bubble becomes a realistic possibility. One thing at a time, though.
Our gain was Nebraska's loss, obviously. Their win over K-State means nothing given that they have failed to win since. They have been consistently projected to lose in Manhattan, as well. Things are not looking good for Doc's bunch, and Texas A&M is barking at their heels. Only a projected win in a toss-up game is keeping the Huskers ahead of the Aggies right now.
The other real loser is Iowa State. Colorado? Seriously? Somebody couldn't get over almost beating Kansas, it looks to me. Despite uber-stud Craig Brackins, the Cyclones are beginning to look like the second-worst team in the Big 12, and after Tuesday, even that is in doubt.
Texas Tech is just irrelevant at this point. It appears Pat Knight is writing the sequel to Sean Sutton's bestseller, "Tripping and Breaking My Face on the Pavement While Wearing Daddy's Shoes."
I told you Colorado wouldn't go winless in conference play. That said, they're still clearly the worst team in the conference by far. I'm glad they won, though. Bzdelik is too good of a coach to get stuck with the ignominious donut.
Based on this week's results, Pomeroy now projects us to beat Texas A&M. He also now projects Oklahoma to beat Baylor in Waco, Texas to beat Missouri, and Texas A&M to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock. There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.
Based on this week's results, Sagarin now projects Oklahoma to beat Missouri and Texas A&M to beat Oklahoma State in College Station. There were no other changes in the Sagarin projections.
Self-Evaluation
Big 12 Outlook was 3-3 this week, but I take some pride in the fact that I predicted the system would have a tough week. I knew four road wins was an outrageous expectation, but try telling a computer that. It usually gets pissed off and gives you a blue screen of death.
Obviously, I'm not going to complain that Pomeroy and Sagarin were both wrong about the Cats. No matter how many numbers you crunch, you can't simulate an important element: your gut. I've consistently said I do not believe Missouri is as good as the computers think or that we are as bad as they thought, and the Cats proved it this week. Remember your gut when you are filling out your brackets this March.
As you can see below, I like all the home teams to hold serve this week, except Iowa State, who is extremely unlikely to beat Oklahoma. Texas A&M and Texas Tech won toss-up games, however, so keep an eye on Nebraska and Oklahoma State. Maybe one or both of them will break out of their funk on Saturday. And while I believe K-State can beat Texas (something I did not believe last week, I admit), I still don't expect it. C'mon, Cats - surprise me.
Key
- P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
- S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)
Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.
Predicted Outcomes
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