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BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.16.09

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Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 1.15.2009 at 2:15 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 2 0 16 1
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 1 0 12 3
Kansas Jayhawks 1 0 12 4
Texas A&M Aggies 1 1 15 2
Missouri Tigers 1 1 14 3
Baylor Bears 1 1 13 3
Texas Longhorns 1 1 12 4
Iowa St. Cyclones 1 1 12 5
Nebraska Cornhuskers 1 1 11 4
Texas Tech Red Raiders 0 1 10 6
Colorado Buffaloes 0 1 8 7
Kansas St. Wildcats 0 2 11 5


All teams have now played their conference opener, and 8 of 12 have played two conference games. One thing is quickly becoming clear: It's hard to win on the road in the Big 12. Oklahoma currently possesses the league's only road win. Hit the jump to see how the conference season's second data input shook up the projections.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 15-1 7 15 7 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Missouri 2 12-4 49 10 24 California Nebraska Mike Anderson
Kansas 3 12-4 43 19 37 Kansas State Massachusetts Bill Self
Texas 4 11-5 22 30 26 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 5 11-5 19 36 34 Tulsa Washington Travis Ford
Baylor 6 9-7 44 37 30 Arizona State Texas A&M Scott Drew
Kansas State 7 8-8 104 25 53 Cleveland State Oregon Frank Martin
Nebraska 8 6-10 88 72 81 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Texas A&M 9 6-10 40 71 56 Baylor Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 10 4-12 113 94 92 Houston Hawai'i Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 99 109 107 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 0-16 237 193 201 Colorado State SMU Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

Wow, did Baylor ever take a nosedive.

These days, losing to Turgeon drops you from a predicted No. 2 seed to a No. 6 seed. It also projects another three losses for you, and your computer numbers tumble.

Oklahoma benefits by picking up a pair of predicted wins, screwing up my numbers again. When their record was predicted at 13-3, I thought that was pretty sound. 15-1 is totally unrealistic and I am curious to see how long it will take these computers to figure that out. I think another week of data might start producing a better distribution of wins and losses.

Missouri shot back up into the stratospheric realms of over-achievement, of course. Who knew a beat-down of the worst BCS team in the country would carry so much weight? Quite a bit of day-to-day fluctuation in the standings, but it's still early.

Kansas and Texas appear (for the moment) to be locked in as the 3 and 4 seeds, respectively. Odd that the system can peg them down but can't figure out who Nos. 2, 5, and 6 should be. Of course, neither can I right now.

Texas needs a good win in the worst way, as the Longhorns' numbers continue to plummet. They are costing themselves a good seed in the NCAA Tournament right now. Meanwhile, Kansas' numbers continue to improve and I feel confident at this point that they will be in the field of 65.

Oklahoma State did not play, but appears to have received a residual bump from Texas A&M's win Wednesday night. Of course, the Cowboys also benefited from Baylor's stumble in that game. In fact, they actually tied Texas so well that it went to the final tiebreaker, which would normally be a name out of a hat, but in the case of the simulator it is preseason ranking, which obviously favors the Longhorns.

Until Kansas State wins a game it shouldn't, we appear to be destined for the No. 7 seed. What Sagarin and Pomeroy cannot agree on is our record. Pomeroy still maintains we can go 10-6, but I am not so optimistic. I think the 9-7 from the previous edition is about right, but 8-8 works for now until we pull out of this nosedive. On the plus side, we became a team's best win for the second straight game, so I guess there is that.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times for Nebraska. From the high of upsetting Missouri to the low of dropping a roadie against the Cyclones, the Huskers' record has fluctuated from 6-10 to 8-8 and now back to 6-10. I'll be interested to see what impact Saturday's game has on these projections.

Iowa State saw a slight computer bump from their win, while Texas Tech and Colorado both took nasty hits - Tech from Baylor's loss and Colorado from its own ass-kicking. I swear, Colorado's numbers would embarrass a Sun Belt team. Will that school ever start taking this sport seriously?

Based on this week's results, Pomeroy now projects Oklahoma to win at Baylor and Missouri to win at Texas. (I think he's reading too much into that blowout of Colorado.) He also now projects Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to beat Nebraska, as well. (Apparently that loss at Iowa State hurt more than I expected.) There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.

Based on this week's results, Sagarin now projects us to beat Baylor. He also now projects Oklahoma State to lose at Texas A&M, Oklahoma to win at Baylor and at Texas, and Texas A&M to win at Texas Tech. There were no other changes in the Sagarin projections.

As you can see below, I like Baylor, Missouri, and Nebraska to hold serve at home Saturday, and Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas should roll over-matched opponents on the road. K-State and Nebraska came down to a coin flip, but right now I see no real reason to overturn that with unwarranted optimism. The Cats need to show me something first. Getting their first win of the season against a BCS team, in a venue in which we traditionally play like crap, would be a strong step in the right direction.

 

Key

  • P - Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
  • R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
  • S - Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
73 Baylor
61 Tech
75 Texas
67 I-State
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
56 Nebraska
51 Missouri
72 O-State
61 A&M
01.12-01.14
78 Oklahoma
63 Texas
87 Kansas
71 K-State
65 I-State
53 Nebraska
107 Missouri
62 Colorado
84 A&M
73 Baylor
01.17
O-State
@ Baylor (PS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ Missouri (PS)
K-State (P)
@ Nebraska (RS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ A&M
Texas (PS)
@ Tech
01.19-01.21
A&M
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Tech (PS)
Baylor
@ K-State (PS)
Missouri (P)
@ O-State (RS)
Nebraska
@ Oklahoma (PS)
01.24
K-State (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ I-State
Tech
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor
@ Oklahoma (PS)
A&M
@ Texas (PS)
01.26-01.28
Oklahoma (PS)
@ O-State
Texas
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State (PS)
@ Colorado
Missouri (RS)
@ K-State (P)
Kansas (PS)
@ Nebraska
Tech
@ A&M (PS)
01.31
Oklahoma (PS)
@ I-State
K-State
@ Texas (PS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (PS)
Nebraska
@ Tech (PS)
O-State (PR)
@ A&M (S)
02.02-02.04
Kansas
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Colorado
Missouri (P)
@ Texas (RS)
Tech
@ O-State (PS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.07
Colorado
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ I-State
K-State (P)
@ A&M (RS)
O-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (PS)
@ Tech
02.09-02.11
Kansas
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State
@ Texas (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Baylor
Colorado
@ I-State (PS)
Tech
@ K-State (PS)
02.14
A&M
@ Baylor (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ O-State (PS)
Kansas
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.16-02.18
Texas (PS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State (PS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (RS)
@ Tech (P)
Oklahoma (RS)
@ Texas (P)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)