BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.10.09

OK, the purpose of this feature is threefold:

1. As you can see above, track the Big 12 standings in case you're lazy like me and don't want to go look them up.
2. Use a variety of projection systems to offer real-time predicted outcomes of all upcoming games, updated biweekly after each "round" of conference games.
3. Offer commentary on the NCAA hopes of conference teams (won't start with this until a little later in the season).

You can expect these on Sunday (after Saturday games) and Thursday/Friday (after Big Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday games). Hit the jump to see what the conference looks like as we head into the first week of games, starting tomorrow.

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

Discussion

The chart above is a projection of the seeds in the Big 12 Tournament. (I used preseason ranking order as tie-breakers.) Obviously, this is a very early projection and there are some wacky results. I can almost guarantee Colorado will win at least 1 Big 12 game. Moreover, Missouri is not going to win the regular season championship. I'm absolutely convinced most computers have the Tigers overrated right now.

Notice that K-State's 7th seed is a low projection (in this edition of Big 12 Outlook we "lost" at least 2 games on a coin flip) and it's still higher than our predicted preseason finish. If one of those flips goes the other way, we're sitting at 6th, and if they both do, we're in that mess of teams tied at 12-4.

In general, this projection is too top-heavy. The bottom teams will pull some upsets, and that will factor in more as Sagarin and Pomeroy collect more data. But it's an interesting first cut at the data, nonetheless.

As you can see from the tables below, all this information was derived from the best-estimate projection of what the conference game outcomes will be, given the most current data available. Games were decided by a "best out of 3" system; the "winner" was selected by at least 2 of my 3 prediction methods. Those are indicated by the letter codes next to each team's name.

Key:

• P - Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
• R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (I like to preserve the element of chance; for this exercise, it serves only as a tie-breaker; heads = home team, tails = road team)
• S - Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

I then took the results and plugged them into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order for all teams for your viewing pleasure. It's slightly more scientific than just plugging in wins randomly, but less systematic than Pomeroy's system, so it's right up my alley. Hopefully some readers will find this information useful/interesting/yet another way to waste time at work.

Predicted Outcomes