FanPost

The Trouble with the JWO

Last year, I offered up a couple of lengthy posts that were probably greeted more negatively than positively. To be fair to all of us, it was a tense time with the Waters-Sams debate a-ragin'.

Following Thursday's loss, I've spent a couple of hours poring over the play-by-plays for the past four seasons and seeing if I can spot any major trends in the two years of the Collin Klein years and the two years of the Jake Waters years. Because as I said a year ago, the "Problem with Jake Waters"......is not that he isn't talented...is not that he didn't play well [against NDSU]...is *not* that he is the reason the Wildcats lost [that game].", I'm altering my title and language to analyze the Jake Waters Offense, hereafter to be referred to as the JWO. In a similar vein, I will refer to the Collin Klein years as the CKO, as I am specifically *not* attempting to directly compare the two as quarterback talents.

I think this is fair. Five hundred dollars to the charity of your choice (and I actually mean this, with the caveat that if you selected an organization is diametrically opposed to my personal social values, I reserve the right to require that you select another) if you can find anyplace in which I've ever said anything like "Waters sucks". At most, I've not seen him to be quite the lights-out elite passer that some have, but I feel like I've been pretty consistent in saying that he's at least pretty darned good, whether or not I think he's been a great fit for this offense. Or perhaps I've typed "What a terrible pass/game for Jake". But that's not slamming him as a player. I've always said he's good.

A Summary (of last year's posts TPWJW and T(O)PWJW):

I may not have been as clear or eloquent as I'd hoped to be, but here is a basic summary of what I wrote last September and October.

September: (following the NDSU loss)

a. "He gives all impressions of being a very good college QB and he has pro potential."

b. I didn't feel like Snyder would be able to maximize his strengths, because every successful Snyder team since 1997 had run the ball between 62% and 70% of the time and none of those teams got more than 54% of their yardage through the air.

c. I argued that a JWO would need to try at least 50-60% pass attempts with at least two-thirds of its yardage coming through the air to really work. I didn't think that the Cats had the linemen, receivers, or coach to commit to that.

d. I didn't think that Waters (the player, not the offensive package) would be an effective runner and believed that Hubert's success was largely tied to being paired with Klein. (Waters has been more effective than I thought, though not to the level, of course, of the K-State greats. I was flat-out wrong about Hubert.)

October: (post-Texas and after a 2-2 start)

I didn't add much new, though honed in a little on what I saw I was seeing, namely,

a. This team would be most successful with a quick strike approach. In particular, I noted that the JWO was "showing signs of being ineffective in the red zone".

b. I was pretty down on the receivers. I acknowledged Tyler's greatness, though suggested that less than elite-level hands limited him a bit. I saw Thompson and Sexton as serviceable, but no one of note after them in the rotation and collectively good enough for the pass-heavy offense that I thought was needed.

c. I said it was "pretty clear" that John Hubert wouldn't be effective. Again, I was flat-out wrong with no mitigating qualifiers to offer up.

d. I thought the season was going down. Though I didn't predict 3-9 or 4-8, I saw them as possibilities. Implied, minus some major changes in offensive personal and/or design, I pegged last year as a like 5 or 6 win season. I was clearly too pessimistic. (Imagine that...)

An overarching theme in both posts, however, was a sense of limited time. My primarily argument for Team Sams was that three years of Sams would be more likely to strike paydirt than two of Waters. [Had Sams been the junior and Waters the sophomore, I'd have re-evaluated.]

The Data Analysis and the Methods.

In the past couple of days, I've gone through the data I have access to in order to determine:

a. if the JWO, in fact, been more pass-heavy than in prior successful (non-Webb/Everige) years since 1996. I am using the 2013 and 2014 seasonal stats from sports-reference.com. A few qualifiers:

--I did not stop to factor out the small # of Huebener downs this year

--I will offer the team totals and the team totals with Sams' passes and carries subtracted.

--I am aware that a fair number (though I doubt more than a few a game on average) of Waters' carries were passing attempts. I did not have the time to account for this.

b. Seizing on my new fixation--the sense that the JWO is falling short in the red zone--I spent quite a lot of time trying to fairly assess the relative effectiveness of the JWO and the CKO from the years 2011 - 2014 (through the Auburn game. How I did this:

--I scanned the play-by-play of all 42 games that K-State has played since 2011.

--I (being as careful as I could) tried to document the number of times that the CKO and the JWO entered the red
zone with the intent to score.(ie, not letting the clock expire at the end of the game against KU).

--I easily eliminated the Lamur and Sams possessions in 2011 and 2012 and the Huebener possessions in 2014.

--I tried to be as accurate and fair as I could to siphon out the drives in which Sams took over in the red zone last
year. It was clearer than I thought it would be, though I don't have a way of knowing if, say, Sams came in for
a couple of plays and handed off. But there was only one series in which it was primarily Sams and then Waters
came in on third down. They did not score. I did *not* label this a JWO possession.

--I attempted to compare CKO and JWO passing percentages in the red zone, as well as the TD/FG/Fail results
for each.

--I tried very hard not to make mistakes. I double checked each game. But I can't claim complete accuracy

New Considerations

I projected (and still do) a 7-5 or 8-4 season. Mostly, this relative pessimism stems from the receiving corps. I found this comment of mine after the SFA game: "At very least, I feel like the scenario in which the receiving corps is overall average or worse is at least as likely as it being really, really good (especially factoring in Lockett injury fears)." Later in the thread, I added, "And if Tyler gets hurt [, T]hat's a possible ticket to a losing season." Alarmist, perhaps, but I simply didn't see the JWO having the quality and quantity of receivers needed to make this more than a reasonably good season.

Last year, I saw what all others saw--the JWO doesn't often put the ball in the endzone from the red zone. I posted the other day that only 8 JWO TD passes have come from inside the 25 and only 5 from 15 yards or closer.

More notably, the five short strike TDs (and 6 of the 8 from within the 25) have coming during two games--against a clearly overmatched FBS opponent, and that one dizzying day in Tempe when the JWO offense simply ate an opponent alive in a way that it hadn't done before and it hasn't done since (SFA semi-excepted). The Wildcat receivers aren't very big, they aren't very experienced, and only Tyler Lockett has shown the ability to catch a TD pass in the red zone. I'm afraid this is going to remain a huge problem. (As solid as Curry Sexton has become, he's still only caught a single TD pass in his career.)

Of course, it doesn't matter one bit if the team scores via the pass or the run, as long as it scores. And red zone vs. non-red zone is largely academic, except that there is a sense of lost opportunity when the team has to settle for three (or worse).

The Results

a. The Chad May or Ell Roberson Offense Question

2013-2014 rush/pass attempt split:
1039 total plays--627 rush (60%) and 412 pass (40%)
--This is just barely at the high end of the post-1996 Snyder average.

2013-2014 rush/pass attempt (minus Sams passes or rushes) split:
834 total plays--475 rush (57%) and 359 pass (43%)
--This is shows a higher percentage of pass attempts than any "good" Snyder team from 1997 to 2012, though it is not a dramatic departure from the 30% to 38% range from those years. And it's not anywhere near the 50% - 60% that I thought would be necessary to make the JWO hum.

2013-2014 rushing/passing yardage split:
6,487 total yards--2,844 rushing (44%) and 3,643 passing (56%)
--This barely eclipses the 54% passing yardage in 1998, while the CKO had nearly a 50-50 split each year.

2013-2014 rushing/passing yardage (minus Sams passing or rushing yardage) split:
5,227 total yards--2,036 rushing (39%) and 3,191 passing (61%)
--This eclipses 1998 by a substantial amount (seven percentage points) and 2003 by even more (thirteen percentage points). It is not, however, quite at the level that I would have thought would make the JWO really successful.

b. The Matter of the Red Zone

Passing Attempts and Completions from the 25 or closer:

2011 (CKO)--22 for 47 (47%) *
2012 (CKO)--36 fpr 57 (63%)
CKO, 2011-2012--58 for 105 (55%)

2013 (JWO)--16 for 31 (52%)
2014 (4 games) (JWO)--9 for 17 (53%)
JWO, 2013-Sept 2014--25 for 48 (52%)

In short, I was surprised how often the CKO connected in passing the ball in the red zone during his senior season. Percentage completed is not a terribly important stat, of course, since it's points that matter. But I did find it interesting that the "limited-passing offense" hit a receiver so often. Better receivers or blocking protection? Perhaps or perhaps not, but since I'm explicitly comparing the CKO and the JWO, that's not very relevant.

* (This is cherry picking to a large degree, but I also ran the CKO stats after his first four starts in 2011, during which he really was not an effective passer. During his final 22 starts, he was 49 for 83 for 59% in those two years.)

Red Zone (possession at some point 25 yard line or closer) Results

2011 (CKO)--40 TD; 11 FG; 8 Fail (68% TD; 19% FG; 87% Score) *
2012 (CKO)--47 TD; 17 FG; 7 Fail (66% TD; 24% FG; 90% Score
CKO, 2011-2012--87 TD; 28 FG; 15 Fail (67% TD; 22% FG; 88% Score


2013 (JWO)--16 TD; 9 FG; 3 Fail (57% TD; 32% FG; 89% Score)
2014 (4 games) (JWO)--12 TD; 3 FG; 6 Fail (57% TD; 14% FG; 71% score)
JWO, 2013-2014--28 TD; 12 FG; 9 Fail (57% TD; 24% FG; 82% score)

* (More cherry picking, factoring out those first four games, and this time it is telling. In those first four games of 2011, the CKO "Failed" in the red zone six times. Remarkably, it only did so *twice* more in the remaining nine games that season, which may well explain how that team managed to win 10 games while outgaining the opponent on--I think--thrice. During the CKO's final 22 outings, it scored 70% TDs and 22% FGs for a success rate of 92%.)

Clearly, the JWO offense has been considerably less effective in the red zone than the CKO was. The "success gap of 88% to 82% is noteworthy (and more pronounced if, somewhat arbitrarily, one gifts the CKO its first four games, which were--to be fair--fairly dramatic outliers from all of the others).

Of huge significance was the CKO's ability to put the ball in the damned end zone. 67% percent touchdowns versus 57% borders on monumental.




The Statistical Bottom Line

In 130 red zone possessions, the 2011-2012 CKO put up 693 points, or an average of 5.33 points per RZP.

In 49 red zone possessions, the 2013-2014 JWO has put up 232 points, or an average of 4.73 points per RZP.

Depending upon the games these past four seasons, that's anywhere from a 0 to a 5 point differential, which the average leaning toward the larger number. (The JWO has had three games in which it had no RZPs; the CKO had at least two in every game and averaged five. It's not useful to calculate the JWO times per game, as he split time with Sams during a number of those games. But remember, those Sams possessions are not a part of these calculations.)

Because I think it important, I'm going to crunch the numbers in two different ways, both of which widen the gap.

First, when factoring out the first four starts of the CKO,

In 109 red zone possessions, the CKO put up 604 points, or an average of 5.54 points per RZP.

And more fairly and less susceptible to claims of cherry picking, lets look at the CKO and JWO excluding FBS opponents. This helps the production of the CKO and hurts the numbers of the JWO.

In 121 FCS red zone possessions, the CKO put up 660 points, or an avereage of 5.45 points per RZP.

In 41 FCS red zone possessions, the JWO has put up 187 points, or an average of 4.56 points per RZP.

That's three to six points per game, on average. And that's a lot.As a point of reference, the 2011-2012 Wildcats went 10-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. The 2013-2014 Wildcats (with a half-dozen games of JWO/DSO mixes) have gone 2-3 in those games.

What I Take Away from This

Well, first and foremost, I escaped grading 76 European History and Psychology essays for a day, so even if not a sole reads this or not a single one who does appreciates it in any way, I've scored my own personal red zone touchdown.

Of more relevance to the Wildcat faithful, I can't claim that this means any particular thing. I'm aware that it's bad science to have a conclusion in mind and then hunt for the evidence, which is partially what I've done here. I never felt comfortable that the JWO was going to work out here, mostly because of system and personnel (This is a different matter than claiming that Sams, per se, was the answer. He was, however, the available option last year and, in my mind, the prototype of a lightening quick young dynamic QB, who has become all-world under Bill by his senior season. But Bill was surely looking at other recruits with that sort of skill set.. So, looking back at the 10-6 record and coming off a disappointing loss in which the offense didn't perform well, I was looking for data to explain why this has happened.

At the same time, I didn't honestly know if the CKO's numbers in the red zone were far superior to that of the JWO. I predicted that they would be and the data bore that out, probably in a more pronounced fashion that I had expected.

In the end, this leads me to the following conclusions:

1. Through the first 60% of the JWO at Kansas State, the overall results have been a little disappointing. (Needless to say, no one needs to agree with this.)

2. The JWO has not been able to play to its passing strengths when the field gets short. If asked, I'd put the onus on the JWO's lack of receiving quality and depth. This still seems to me to be a quick-strike offense.

3. Should the JWO leave Manhattan with after a couple of seasons that ended in a total of 14, 15, or even 16 wins, I'd look back at it as a lost opportunity. Sams? I don't know know. Maybe he's just not good enough or disciplined enough. But Bill has shown a tremendous knack for taking potential dynamic true "dual-threat" QBs and making them stars after a break-in year. Could that have been Sams this year *or next*? Or someone else that Bill might have landed? We'll never know. But if this year's team doesn't seriously contend for the Big 12, I'll be of the mind that the JWO wasn't the right way to go.

4. I'm anticipating the response that I'm ignoring the defense and putting the team's success entirely on the back of the JWO. But statistically, the 2011-2012 and 2013 - present defenses are very close in terms of total production. And at the end of the day, I find it hard not to put a huge part of three losses on the JWO (21 points against NDSU, 21 against a Texas defense that hadn't stopped anyone, and Thursday night). That's not an argument I'd make about any of the five CKO losses and while my memory of every game from those days isn't fresh, I don't recall an outing in which the Bishop-Roberson teams (excluding 2001 and the Jeff Shwinn game) didn't put enough points on scoreboard in otherwise winnable games.

5. Should this be a 10 or 11 win season? Red zone struggles aside, the JWO will have paid off. Sure, we all want a championship, but those are pretty damned hard to come by. Hey, even 7-2 in the Big 12 would be nothing to sneeze at. It would be a two year drop off from the CKO years, but it will have been a really successful senior season. I'm not predicting that outcome, but I am sure rooting for it (and am encouraged that I've been wrong before).

6. Finally, I'm not confident that the red zone issues will work themselves out. We'd hoped that the JWO had figured it all out against Michigan, but that game has been the aberration to date, and I never doubted that the JWO could do what it wanted in the red zone against SFA. But the two minute drills have been really effective and with the troubling exception of Thursday, the quick strike from far away has been a constant joy to watch. This might put the defense on the field more than we'd want, but it might be necessary to open up the offense even more, hoping that enough receiving threats will emerge and that Tyler will stay healthy.

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