2013 Week 6 poll: K-State @ O-State

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The results so far:

2013 Regular Season Schedule
date Opponent Preseason
Poll
Result Weekly Poll
Win Lose L > 7 L ≤ 7 Tie W ≤ 7 W > 7
8/30/13 7:30 p.m.
North Dakota State 134 9 L 24-21 4 6 1 28 153
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. Louisiana-Lafayette 141 2 W 27-48 12 16 3 42 95
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. Massachusetts 142 1 W 7-37 5 0 1 3 123
9/21/13 @Texas 69 19 L 21-31 7 16 7 91 84
10/5/13 @O-State 26 62
10/12/13 Baylor 77 11
10/19/13 bye
10/26/13 West Virginia 88 2
11/2/13 Iowa State 88 2
11/9/13 @Texas Tech 71 19
11/16/13 TCU 41 20
11/23/13 Oklahoma 34 27
11/30/13 @Kansas 60 1

Mathletics is an interesting book and recommended if you enjoy your sports with numbers. Especially good about this book is the explanations at the end of each chapter that allow you to use a spreadsheet to duplicate the examples in each chapter and a section on what the bookies are trying to accomplish.

The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed.  The current numbers for the Big XII:

Team PW %
Baylor .99997135
Texas Tech .99385927
Oklahoma .99287144
Oklahoma State .97727944
Kansas State .84360644
TCU .80663314
Kansas .730429
Texas .67759706
West Virginia .54726478
Iowa State .54574839

As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.  Next week I'll add a column for conference only games, which might be more accurate.

In the NFL, passing yards / attempts  and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%.  Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:

Team PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A
Baylor 14.98 6.29 6.58 2.30
Kansas State 9.40 6.06 4.40 4.42
Oklahoma State 7.91 5.95 4.26 3.00
Texas Tech 7.60 5.73 3.63 3.37
Texas 7.57 6.33 5.10 5.39
Oklahoma 7.33 4.90 5.32 4.92
Iowa State 6.70
6.70 3.63 4.40
TCU 6.67 6.61 4.15 3.09
West Virginia 6.57 6.78 4.41 3.79
Kansas 5.88 4.90 4.21 4.83

Baylor passes and runs well, while KU and ISU both have issues with this area of the game.  It is interesting that KU has a low DPY/A, have they played anyone that passes?

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