FanPost

Is $820k/yr per school sacrifice worth long term conference stability?



So I got to thinking. What if the Big 12 would have added Louisville, but respected that 27-mo period the Big East requires? So the Conference could operate as a 10 team league for 2 more years, and in the meantime search for a home-run hit of a 12th team. Let's just again for the sake of argument just choose Florida State.

Now the usual back-lash to adding a team is "they have to provided another (insert current per-team figure here)". In the Big 12's case that number is $26.2M. Well do they? Only to not loose a payout dime they do.

Ok, so what if we carried out this scenario anyway, then what would happen? Ok, so from here I will admit I am making up figures based on absolutely nothing. But let's just say the value that Louisville could bring to the conference is of course short, but still with the size of market, and TV sets that value that they can bring to the table is $17.2M. So it's $9M short of what's needed, so now every school will take a hit. Let's say after 27-months there wasn't a suitable home run 12th addition and the conference is left in the 2014-15 season to operate with 11 teams.

Well, now the total pot went from $262M to $279.2M with the addition of Louisville. So now let's divide the pie 11 ways. Now each school can no longer make $26.2M a year, but now makes a "mere" $25.36M. This hit won't stop Baylor from opening a brand new stadium on the Brazos river. And at $820,000 loss, that's pennies on the dollar to the OU and UT of the conference. Seams like a small price to pay for added security for a team like KSU or ISU.

In addition to this, akin to what WVU and TCU experience these first few years, they don't make the exact same amount as the rest of the schools as they have funds withheld by the conference for exit fees and whatever of the former departures. So given the right jockeying, you could force a team like Louisville to do the same in years 1 and 2 to soften the blow to the other 10 teams...and I bet you could re-negotiate with TV execs and convince them otherwise say 2 more years down the road from that first season and get it back to where all 11 teams would in turn still make that same amount. Am I missing something here?

Now obviously the one flaw in my logic here, is my arbitrary number of $17.2M. That would take someone smarter than me, say and economist, or marketing analyst. Because obviously if you take away another $9M from that figure, that requires each of the other 10 teams to then sacrifice $1.64M/per year. But gosh, I have to think a school like Baylor, TCU or K-state isn't bringing $26.2M to the table either in worth between brand equity and TV markets either. Call me crazy but what do you think?

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