Things have settled in Vegas, and it's time to take an in-depth look at what the oddsmakers are saying about Saturday's showdown with the Wolverines.
The general consensus has the Wildcats as a 5 point favorite, with some houses softening the spread to 4.5 or pushing it to 5.5. The over/under is sitting comfortably in a spread from 54.5 to 56, with the consensus settled at 55.5 total.
The line's busted out from a -3.5 open and a 57.5 over-under. Essentially, the oddsmakers are taking two points away from Michigan because Devin Gardner is out. Ty Zimmerman was still doubtful/questionable when the line opened, and is now playing, so I personally think that K-State has become a value bet, and most non-book predictions seem to have the 'Cats winning by a touchdown or more.
Here's a table with a full breakdown of... well, of a whole bunch of different lines. K-State is favored in all cases, of course; the Money Line -- the mechanism used for folks who just want to bet the outcome of the game without playing the spread -- first shows what one would have to bet to win $100 betting on K-State, then what one would win on a $100 bet placed on Michigan. Prediction is my own calculation; it's a combination of the spread and the over-under which demonstrates what the score of the game would be if the spread and over-under were both hit exactly. It's easy to calculate; subtract the spread from the over-under, divide the over-under by two and give each half to each team, then add the spread to the favored team, and then adjust decimals so that the prediction either precisely matches the spread and over-under, or beats one or both by the smallest possible margin. Obviously, a prediction calculation isn't possible for a book with no over-under, so there's no calc for Wynn or Catalina below.
|Las Vegas Hotel||-4.5||56||200/175||31-26 KSU|
|MGM Mirage||-5.5||54.5||220/180||31-25 KSU|
|William Hill||-5||55||200/175||30-25 KSU|
|The Greek||-5||55.5||210/175||31-26 KSU|