Week 11 poll: K-State @ Texas Tech

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The results of the polls so far:

2013 Regular Season Schedule
date Opponent Preseason
Poll
Result Weekly Poll
Win Lose L > 7 L ≤ 7 Tie W ≤ 7 W > 7
8/30/13 7:30 p.m.
North Dakota State 134 9 L 24-21 4 6 1 28 153
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. Louisiana-Lafayette 141 2 W 27-48 12 16 3 42 95
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. Massachusetts 142 1 W 7-37 5 0 1 3 123
9/21/13 @Texas 69 19 L 21-31 7 16 7 91 84
10/5/13 @O-State 26 62 L 29-33 47 18 3 35 11
10/12/13 Baylor 77 11 L 35 - 25 271 3 5 9 6
10/19/13 bye
10/26/13 West Virginia 88 2 W 12 - 35 7 5 7 36 72
11/2/13 Iowa State 88 2 W 7 - 41 1 2 2 23 86
11/9/13 @Texas Tech 71 19
11/16/13 TCU 41 20
11/23/13 Oklahoma 34 27
11/30/13 @Kansas 60 1

The preseason poll is 5-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 5-3.

Continuing with the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.

The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:

PW%
Team All Conference Non-Conference
Baylor .9645 .9136 .9947
Iowa State .2156 .1228 .5229
Kansas .1852 .0906 .6221
Kansas State .7104 .6421 .8068
Oklahoma .7670 .5941 .9272
Oklahoma State .8197 .7056 .9449
Texas .7053 .7992 .5556
TCU .4972 .2969 .7505
Texas Tech .7509 .6153 .9377
West Virginia .3631 .3062 .5376

As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.

This PW% is starting to reach accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%:  Baylor, Texas, O-State, K-State, Texas Tech, OU, WVU, TCU, I-State and KU.  K-State, Texas Tech and OU are fairly close together in the numbers, so we might have good games (please see your doctor before viewing).

In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:

All games Conf games
Team PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A
Baylor 13.26 5.85 6.24 3.04 12.11 5.54 5.99 3.66
Iowa State 5.85 7.15 3.38 5.13 5.28 7.39 3.25 5.54
Kansas 5.63 6.78 3.42 4.93 5.45 7.95 2.95 4.99
K-State 9.23 6.54 4.59 3.97 9.07 6.91 4.45 3.76
Oklahoma 7.08 5.68 5.21 4.19 6.61 6.27 5.21 4.14
O-State 6.94 5.87 4.62 3.35 6.13 5.90 4.52 3.29
Texas 7.44 6.47 4.64 4.63 7.13 7.15 4.35 3.49
TCU 6.40 6.79 3.59 3.31 6.03 6.85 3.43 3.27
Texas Tech 6.41 6.05 3.82 3.91 7.17 6.14 3.65 4.33
West Virginia 6.47 8.26 4.23 4.25 6.17 8.63 3.93 4.67

In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Baylor now leads in passing defense, while TCU has the best rushing defense.

K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 4th in RY/A.  The Cats are 6th in DPY/A and 5th best DRY/A.

The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):

Team

Bowl

Prediction

11/9 11/16 11/23 11/30 12/7
Baylor eligible OU TXT @OSU @TCU TX
Iowa State n/a TCU @OU KU @WVU
Kansas need 4 wins
@OSU WVU @ISU KSU
Kansas State need 2 wins
@TXT TCU OU @KU
Oklahoma eligible @Baylor ISU @KSU @OSU
Oklahoma State eligible KU @TX Baylor OU
Texas eligible @WVU OSU TXT @Baylor
TCU need 3 wins
@ISU @KSU Baylor
Texas Tech eligible KSU Baylor @TX
West Virginia need 2 wins
TX @KU
ISU

Using the conference predicted winning percentages (which is almost accurate) rankings, I-State and WVU have the easiest schedules remaining, with K-State having the 3rd easiest schedule and KU in 4th.  Texas, OU, O-State and Baylor are the next four, trailed by TCU and the hardest schedule remaining is Texas Tech.

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