Week 14 poll: K-State @ KU

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Cats assured of an even record and bowl eligibility.

The results of the polls so far:

2013 Regular Season Schedule
date Opponent Preseason
Poll
Result Weekly Poll
Win Lose L > 7 L ≤ 7 Tie W ≤ 7 W > 7
8/30/13 7:30 p.m.
North Dakota State 134 9 L 24-21 4 6 1 28 153
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. Louisiana-Lafayette 141 2 W 27-48 12 16 3 42 95
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. Massachusetts 142 1 W 7-37 5 0 1 3 123
9/21/13 @Texas 69 19 L 21-31 7 16 7 91 84
10/5/13 @O-State 26 62 L 29-33 47 18 3 35 11
10/12/13 Baylor 77 11 L 35 - 25 271 3 5 9 6
10/19/13 bye
10/26/13 West Virginia 88 2 W 12 - 35 7 5 7 36 72
11/2/13 Iowa State 88 2 W 7 - 41 1 2 2 23 86
11/9/13 @Texas Tech 71 19 W 49 - 26 32 23 6 94 28
11/16/13 TCU 41 20 W 31 - 33 8 11 5 14 171
11/23/13 Oklahoma 34 27 L 41 - 31 15 18 2 112 66
11/30/13 @Kansas 60 1

The preseason poll is 7-4 after this week and the weekly polls are 6.5-4.

Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.

The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:

PW%
Team All Conference Non-Conference
Baylor .9171 .8316 .9947
Iowa State .2535 .1852 .5229
Kansas .1593 .0925 .6221
Kansas State .6708 .6167 .8068
Oklahoma .7247 .6059 .9272
Oklahoma State .8648 .8225 .9449
Texas .6258 .6586 .5556
TCU .5023 .3606 .7505
Texas Tech .6235 .4729 .9377
West Virginia .3580 .3155 .5376

As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.

This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: O-State, Baylor/Texas, OU, K-State, Tech, TCU, WVU, I-State and KU

In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:

All games Conf games
Team PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A
Baylor 11.75 6.56 5.76 3.11 10.53 6.66 5.43 3.51
Iowa State 6.11 5.02 3.41 3.72 5.86 4.60 3.33 3.57
Kansas 5.24 7.12 3.88 4.73 4.92 8.00 3.77 4.69
K-State 9.40 6.53 4.59 4.10 9.36 6.74 4.50 4.03
Oklahoma 6.69 6.33 5.45 3.98 6.20 6.96 5.54 3.88
O-State 7.71 5.94 4.34 3.41 7.45 5.98 4.19 3.40
Texas 6.98 6.84 4.46 4.37 6.58 7.51 4.18 3.44
TCU 6.52 6.69 3.53 3.33 6.28 6.70 3.40 3.31
Texas Tech 7.09 6.45 3.78 4.41 6.79 6.75 3.64 4.85
West Virginia 6.53 7.81 3.33 4.39 6.32 8.00 2.87 4.73

In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and OU leads in rushing per attempt. Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while I-State has the best pass defense per attempt.

K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A. The Cats are 5th in DPY/A and 7th best DRY/A.

The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):

Team

Bowl
Prediction

Conf
Record


11/30 12/7
Baylor Alamo
6-1
@TCU TX
Iowa State n/a 1-7 @WVU
Kansas n/a
1-7
KSU
Kansas State Holiday
4-4 @KU
Oklahoma BWW 6-2 @OSU
Oklahoma State Fiesta 7-1 OU
Texas Cotton 6-1 TXT @Baylor
TCU n/a
2-6 Baylor
Texas Tech Texas
4-4 @TX
West Virginia n/a
2-6
ISU

What to expect based on the numbers:
Conference PW% says K-State should win against Kansas.

Yds/Attempt says not so close game over KU.

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