Week 12 (part deux): OU @ K-State

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Cats assured of an even record at the least. Also bowl eligible.

The results of the polls so far:

2013 Regular Season Schedule
date Opponent Preseason
Poll
Result Weekly Poll
Win Lose L > 7 L ≤ 7 Tie W ≤ 7 W > 7
8/30/13 7:30 p.m.
North Dakota State 134 9 L 24-21 4 6 1 28 153
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. Louisiana-Lafayette 141 2 W 27-48 12 16 3 42 95
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. Massachusetts 142 1 W 7-37 5 0 1 3 123
9/21/13 @Texas 69 19 L 21-31 7 16 7 91 84
10/5/13 @O-State 26 62 L 29-33 47 18 3 35 11
10/12/13 Baylor 77 11 L 35 - 25 271 3 5 9 6
10/19/13 bye
10/26/13 West Virginia 88 2 W 12 - 35 7 5 7 36 72
11/2/13 Iowa State 88 2 W 7 - 41 1 2 2 23 86
11/9/13 @Texas Tech 71 19 W 49 - 26 32 23 6 94 28
11/16/13 TCU 41 20 W 31 - 33 8 11 5 14 171
11/23/13 Oklahoma 34 27
11/30/13 @Kansas 60 1

The preseason poll is 7-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 6.5-3.

Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.

The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:

PW%
Team All Conference Non-Conference
Baylor .9515 .9021 .9947
Iowa State .1927 .1170 .5229
Kansas .1944 .1190 .6221
Kansas State .7086 .6634 .8068
Oklahoma .7333 .5944 .9272
Oklahoma State .8567 .8008 .9449
Texas .6258 .6586 .5556
TCU .5023 .3606 .7505
Texas Tech .6235 .4729 .9377
West Virginia .3580 .3155 .5376

As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.

This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%: Baylor, O-State, K-State, Texas, OU, Tech, TCU, WVU, KU and I-State (sad farmalliance face). Note: K-State won't finish 3rd in the conference since Texas beat us, but it is nice that the Cats are finishing strong in PW%.

In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:

All games Conf games
Team PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A
Baylor 12.48 5.68 6.02 3.08 11.31 5.43 5.76 3.54
Iowa State 5.62 5.15 3.27 3.67 5.11 4.73 3.13 3.50
Kansas 5.50 6.69 3.82 4.73 5.29 7.45 3.66 4.69
K-State 9.08 6.44 4.78 3.85 8.88 6.64 4.74 3.65
Oklahoma 6.58 5.80 5.41 4.16 5.98 6.28 5.49 4.12
O-State 7.07 5.76 4.46 3.49 6.51 5.73 4.33 3.50
Texas 6.98 6.84 4.46 4.37 6.58 7.51 4.18 3.44
TCU 6.52 6.69 3.53 3.33 6.28 6.70 3.40 3.31
Texas Tech 7.09 6.45 3.78 4.41 6.79 6.75 3.64 4.85
West Virginia 6.53 7.81 3.33 4.39 6.32 8.00 2.87 4.73

In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt. Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while I-State for some reason now has the best pass defense per attempt.

K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A. The Cats are 5th in DPY/A and 6th best DRY/A.

The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):

Team

Bowl
Prediction

Conf
Record

11/23 11/30 12/7
Baylor Fiesta 6-0 @OSU @TCU TX
Iowa State n/a 0-7 KU @WVU
Kansas n/a
1-6 ISU KSU
Kansas State Holiday
4-3 OU @KU
Oklahoma BWW 5-2 @KSU @OSU
Oklahoma State Cotton 6-1 Baylor OU
Texas Alamo 6-1 TXT @Baylor
TCU n/a
2-6 Baylor
Texas Tech Texas
4-4 @TX
West Virginia n/a
2-6
ISU

Using the conference predicted winning percentages rankings, the toughest remaining schedule belongs to TCU (they only play Baylor) followed by O-State, OU, Texas, Tech, Baylor, KU, K-State, I-State and WVU.

What to expect based on the numbers:
Conference PW% says K-State should win against OU and Kansas, with OU the pick if all games are used in the PW%. The alumni association needs to offer cardiac insurance for games like this.

Yds/Attempt says close game against OU while not so close over KU, with wins in both games.

The match ups are better for K-State this week as OU is 7th in defending rushing yards/attempt and 4th in dpy/a in league games. K-State is 3rd in rush yards per attempt and 2 in py/a. When K-State is defending in conference games, they are 6th for defending rushing attempts and 5 for pass defense (per attempt) while OU is 2nd in rushing yards per attempt and 8th in pass yards per attempt.

Expect OU to gain yards on the ground and K-State to run with passes to keep them off balance.

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