Week 12 poll: TCU @ K-State

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Team Purple battle this week as TCU visits Manhattan. Should be a good game. The Cats will need to continue to execute in an excellent manner to win this game. Dumb mistakes will cause a loss. Dumb playing calling will cause a loss.

The results of the polls so far:

2013 Regular Season Schedule
date Opponent Preseason
Poll
Result Weekly Poll
Win Lose L > 7 L ≤ 7 Tie W ≤ 7 W > 7
8/30/13 7:30 p.m.
North Dakota State 134 9 L 24-21 4 6 1 28 153
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. Louisiana-Lafayette 141 2 W 27-48 12 16 3 42 95
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. Massachusetts 142 1 W 7-37 5 0 1 3 123
9/21/13 @Texas 69 19 L 21-31 7 16 7 91 84
10/5/13 @O-State 26 62 L 29-33 47 18 3 35 11
10/12/13 Baylor 77 11 L 35 - 25 271 3 5 9 6
10/19/13 bye
10/26/13 West Virginia 88 2 W 12 - 35 7 5 7 36 72
11/2/13 Iowa State 88 2 W 7 - 41 1 2 2 23 86
11/9/13 @Texas Tech 71 19 W 49 - 26 32 23 6 94 28
11/16/13 TCU 41 20
11/23/13 Oklahoma 34 27
11/30/13 @Kansas 60 1

The preseason poll is 6-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 6-3.

Continuing the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.

The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:

PW%
Team All Conference Non-Conference
Baylor .9632 .9192 .9947
Iowa State .2255 .1406 .5229
Kansas .1493 .0713 .6221
Kansas State .7280 .6854 .8068
Oklahoma .6750 .4592 .9272
Oklahoma State .8484 .7765 .9449
Texas .6881 .7537 .5556
TCU .5077 .3381 .7505
Texas Tech .6894 .5403 .9377
West Virginia .3695 .3248 .5376

As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate.

This PW% is in fairly accurate range, predicted conference finishing order using conference PW%:  Baylor, O-State, Texas, K-State, Tech, OU, WVU, TCU, I-State and KU.

In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:

All games Conf games
Team PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A
Baylor 12.69 5.63 6.03 3.00 11.41 5.26 5.72 3.48
Iowa State 5.66 7.11 3.29 4.94 5.09 7.29 3.14 5.20
Kansas 5.52 6.81 3.52 4.75 5.30 7.78 3.18 4.71
K-State 9.11 6.34 4.82 3.90 8.89 6.54 4.79 3.69
Oklahoma 6.71 5.88 4.98 4.29 6.11 6.49 4.86 4.28
O-State 6.95 5.78 4.45 3.46 6.28 5.77 4.29 3.47
Texas 7.18 6.67 4.54 4.35 6.80 7.33 4.25 3.25
TCU 6.44 6.50 3.55 3.24 6.14 6.44 3.40 3.16
Texas Tech 7.20 6.07 3.76 4.19 6.90 6.18 3.60 4.65
West Virginia 6.62 7.91 3.24 4.20 6.40 8.13 2.79 4.54

In conference games Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt.  Best rushing defense per attempt is TCU, while Baylor continues to have the best pass defense.

K-State continues as runner up in PY/A and 3rd in RY/A.  The Cats are 6th in DPY/A and 5th best DRY/A.

The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):

Team

Bowl
Prediction

Conf
Record
11/16 11/23 11/30 12/7
Baylor Fiesta 5-0 TXT @OSU @TCU TX
Iowa State n/a 0-6 @OU KU @WVU
Kansas n/a
0-6 WVU @ISU KSU
Kansas State need 1 win
3-3 TCU OU @KU
Oklahoma BWW 4-2 ISU @KSU @OSU
Oklahoma State Alamo 5-1 @TX Baylor OU
Texas Cotton 6-0 OSU TXT @Baylor
TCU need 2 wins
2-5 @KSU Baylor
Texas Tech Holiday 4-3 Baylor @TX
West Virginia need 2 wins
2-5 @KU
ISU

Using the conference predicted winning percentages (which is fairly accurate) rankings, the toughest remaining schedule belongs to Texas followed by Tech, O-State, Baylor and TCU.  The sixth toughest schedule is OU, while K-State, Kansas, I-State and WVU have the easiest schedules.

What to expect based on the numbers:
Conference PW% says K-State should win against TCU, OU and Kansas, with OU being the closest game.
Yds/Attempt says close games against TCU and OU while not so close over KU.

TCU has excellent rush defense and a decent pass defense.  Offensively TCU is in the bottom half of the conference.  K-State has good rushing and passing (per attempt) but lags in the defensive area.  Is this a function of who the teams have played?  Guess everyone will see if good D matters more than good O or vice versa.

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