2013 Week 8 poll: 2nd bye week.

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

The intern looks at meaningless numbers and contemplates why players do dumb things that are disrespectful and risk penalties and stairs.

The results of the polls so far:

2013 Regular Season Schedule
date Opponent Preseason
Poll
Result Weekly Poll
Win Lose L > 7 L ≤ 7 Tie W ≤ 7 W > 7
8/30/13 7:30 p.m.
North Dakota State 134 9 L 24-21 4 6 1 28 153
9/7/13 5:30 p.m. Louisiana-Lafayette 141 2 W 27-48 12 16 3 42 95
9/14/13 6:00 p.m. Massachusetts 142 1 W 7-37 5 0 1 3 123
9/21/13 @Texas 69 19 L 21-31 7 16 7 91 84
10/5/13 @O-State 26 62 L 29-33 47 18 3 35 11
10/12/13 Baylor 77 11 L 35 - 25 271 3 5 9 6
10/19/13 bye
10/26/13 West Virginia 88 2
11/2/13 Iowa State 88 2
11/9/13 @Texas Tech 71 19
11/16/13 TCU 41 20
11/23/13 Oklahoma 34 27
11/30/13 @Kansas 60 1

The preseason poll is 3-3 after this week and the weekly polls are 3-3.

Continuing with the analysis using the Mathletics formulas.

The predicted winning percentage (adjusted for football from baseball) is runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed. The current numbers for the Big XII:

PW%
Team All Conference Non-Conference
Baylor .9518 .7561 (2) .9947
Iowa State .4798 .4317 (7) .5229
Kansas .3082 .1064 (10) .6221
Kansas State .5735 .3412 (8) .8069
Oklahoma .7886 .4592 (5) .9272
Oklahoma State .8207 .4477 (6) .9449
Texas .6167 .6822 (3) .5556
TCU .6526 .4680 (4) .7505
Texas Tech .8897 .8210 (1) .9377
West Virginia .3996 .3133 (9) .5376

As this was calculated using the NFL adjustment, it may or may not be accurate. The conference schedule is approaching meaningful numbers but still 2 weeks to go at least, the problem with small sparse data sets.  K-State has played 2 of the top 3, and 1 of the 2nd three; so the results don't look all that good.

In the NFL, passing yards / attempts and defensive passing yards /attempt explain about 70% of a team's performance, while rushing yards / attempt and defensive rushing yards / attempt explain another 6%. Below is how each Big XII team is doing in these two areas:

All games Conf games
Team PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A PY/A DPY/A RY/A DRY/A
Baylor 14.38 6.28 6.27 3.29 13.42 6.25 5.83 4.84
Iowa State 6.63 6.61 3.73 4.62 6.52 6.52 3.87 5.00
Kansas 5.97 5.91 3.15 4.41 6.1 7.30 1.39 3.82
K-State 8.37 7.17 4.73 4.07 7.31 8.46 4.60 3.86
Oklahoma 6.59 5.55 5.15 4.25 5.18 6.45 5.07 4.22
O-State 7.55 6.07 4.14 3.16 6.52 6.48 3.02 2.75
Texas 7.22 6.66 4.79 4.97 6.52 8.07 4.42 3.69
TCU 6.78 6.25 4.00 3.21 6.20 5.85 4.10 2.98
Texas Tech 7.48 5.58 3.84 3.10 7.04 6.20 3.58 3.36
West Virginia 6.60 7.78 4.25 4.66 6.12 8.29 3.66 5.63

Baylor leads the league in passing and rushing per attempt,while TCU has the best passing defense and OSU has the best rushing defense.  I'm still puzzled as to why we did not attempt to pass against Texas.

The remaining Big XII schedule (red = top 3 confPW%, orange=2nd 3 confPW%, green=3rd 3 confPW%):

Team 10/19 10/26 11/02 11/9 11/16 11/23 11/30 12/7
Baylor ISU @KU OU TXT @OSU @TCU TX
Iowa State @Baylor OSU @KSU TCU @OU KU @WVU
Kansas OU Baylor @TX @OSU WVU @ISU KSU
Kansas State WVU ISU @TXT TCU OU @KU
Oklahoma @KU TXT @Baylor ISU @KSU @OSU
Oklahoma State TCU @ISU @TXT KU @TX Baylor OU
Texas @TCU KU @WVU OSU TXT @Baylor
TCU @OSU TX WVU @ISU @KSU Baylor
Texas Tech @WVU @OU OSU KSU Baylor @TX
West Virginia TXT @KSU @TCU TX @KU
ISU

Using the conference predicted winning percentages (which is probably not accurate) rankings, K-State and I-State have the easiest schedules remaining, while TCU, KU and OU make up the second tier, followed by Texas Tech, WVU and Texas.  Baylor and O-State have arguably the toughest schedules left despite both of them having KU on the schedule.

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