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K-State secured a crucial win to stay ahead of the four-pack that's hot cold on its heels.
But with a two-game gap between it and Iowa State, and a three-game deficit out of first place in a wide-open conference race, it's really hard not to wonder: What if?
What if we had won at least one of those games against an otherwise-horrible-in-Big-12-play Oklahoma team?
What if we had held on to that lead against Baylor? At Iowa State? Where would the Cats be in the discussion now?
Whether it be Bears, Jayhawks or Tigers who hoist the trophy at the end of this season, "what if" probably will torment us all for some time to come ... especially if we don't even Dance because of it.
Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
Kansas | 1 | 16-2 | NCAA | 9 | 3 | 3 | L-1 | Baylor | Davidson | Bill Self |
Missouri | 2 | 15-3 | NCAA | 11 | 7 | 8 | W-3 | Baylor | Oklahoma State | Frank Haith |
Baylor | 3 | 13-5 | NCAA | 2 | 11 | 12 | W-4 | San Diego State | Missouri | Scott Drew |
Iowa State | 4 | 11-7 | NCAA | 35 | 36 | 36 | W-3 | Kansas | Drake | Fred Hoiberg |
Texas | 5 | 11-7 | Bubble | 66 | 20 | 21 | W-1 | Temple | Oregon State | Rick Barnes |
Kansas State | 6 | 9-9 | Bubble | 50 | 23 | 23 | W-1 | Missouri | Oklahoma (2) | Frank Martin |
Oklahoma | 7 | 6-12 | NIT | 82 | 87 | 77 | L-2 | Oral Roberts | Texas A&M | Lon Kruger |
Oklahoma State | 8 | 5-13 | None | 113 | 99 | 95 | L-1 | Missouri | Texas A&M | Travis Ford |
Texas A&M | 9 | 4-14 | None | 145 | 112 | 112 | L-2 | Oklahoma | Rice | Billy Kennedy |
Texas Tech | 10 | 0-18 | None | 233 | 246 | 224 | L-10 | North Texas | DePaul | Billy Gillispie |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
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Discussion
It's Iowa State's world, people, and we're all just living in it.
Despite its failure to accurately predict a Cyclones win in Norman, OUTLOOK persists in expecting four more losses for the season's biggest dark horse. I'm not so sure. This has the look of a legit team to me.
Meanwhile, K-State is one RPI spot away from qualifying as a top-50 win for its opponents who have emerged victorious from battle with us. Texas Tech won't help matters, either. This team needs more quality wins.
How bad is it? We're no longer considered Oklahoma's best win(s). Oral Roberts is. That's simply embarrassing.
The more I crunch the numbers, the more crucial Saturday's game in Austin seems to me. Flip that one projected loss to a win, and K-State would secure a double tiebreaker with Texas for fifth place (and the fifth NCAA bid).
Yes, it appears a win in The Drum Bramlage South would go a long way toward assuaging our worries about not finishing in the top half of the conference or reaching the NCAA Tournament. It certainly gives us margin for error.
GAMER: Now has Kansas State winning at Texas A&M.
Pomeroy: No changes.
Sagarin: No changes.
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Self-Evaluation
So close to an .800 overall pick percentage, I can taste it. Drat.
I told you Oklahoma wouldn't pull that game off. Stupid computers.
OUTLOOK likes the roadies this week, with only Texas Tech (duh!) predicted to fall away from home.
Obviously, two games already are in the books, so my odds of predicting this increase knowing that, but I think at least one of those predicted road winners will be upset. Clearly, it will have to be Iowa State or Kansas.
KU certainly faces the tougher opponent, but the Jayhawks have the better coach. ISU faces a tougher environment and a team that probably should have won in Ames, but the Clones' confidence is sky-high right now.
Either way, expect both games to be close. Missouri only won by three and Texas only won by two.
Cumulative pick record: 39-11 (.780)
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Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin pure points predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
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Predicted Outcomes
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