BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.07.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.6.2012)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#6 Baylor Bears 8 2 21 2
#4 Missouri Tigers 8 2 21 2
#7 Kansas Jayhawks 8 2 18 5
Iowa State Cyclones 7 3 17 6
Kansas State Wildcats 5 5 16 6
Texas Longhorns 4 6 14 9
Oklahoma State Cowboys 4 6 11 12
Oklahoma Sooners 3 7 13 9
Texas A&M Aggies 3 7 12 10
Texas Tech Red Raiders 0 10 7 15

spacer

K-State secured a crucial win to stay ahead of the four-pack that's hot cold on its heels.

But with a two-game gap between it and Iowa State, and a three-game deficit out of first place in a wide-open conference race, it's really hard not to wonder: What if?

What if we had won at least one of those games against an otherwise-horrible-in-Big-12-play Oklahoma team?

What if we had held on to that lead against Baylor? At Iowa State? Where would the Cats be in the discussion now?

Whether it be Bears, Jayhawks or Tigers who hoist the trophy at the end of this season, "what if" probably will torment us all for some time to come ... especially if we don't even Dance because of it.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-2 NCAA 9 3 3 L-1 Baylor Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 15-3 NCAA 11 7 8 W-3 Baylor Oklahoma State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 13-5 NCAA 2 11 12 W-4 San Diego State Missouri Scott Drew
Iowa State 4 11-7 NCAA 35 36 36 W-3 Kansas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Texas 5 11-7 Bubble 66 20 21 W-1 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Kansas State 6 9-9 Bubble 50 23 23 W-1 Missouri Oklahoma (2) Frank Martin
Oklahoma 7 6-12 NIT 82 87 77 L-2 Oral Roberts Texas A&M Lon Kruger
Oklahoma State 8 5-13 None 113 99 95 L-1 Missouri Texas A&M Travis Ford
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 145 112 112 L-2 Oklahoma Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 0-18 None 233 246 224 L-10 North Texas DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

spacer

Discussion

It's Iowa State's world, people, and we're all just living in it.

Despite its failure to accurately predict a Cyclones win in Norman, OUTLOOK persists in expecting four more losses for the season's biggest dark horse. I'm not so sure. This has the look of a legit team to me.

Meanwhile, K-State is one RPI spot away from qualifying as a top-50 win for its opponents who have emerged victorious from battle with us. Texas Tech won't help matters, either. This team needs more quality wins.

How bad is it? We're no longer considered Oklahoma's best win(s). Oral Roberts is. That's simply embarrassing.

The more I crunch the numbers, the more crucial Saturday's game in Austin seems to me. Flip that one projected loss to a win, and K-State would secure a double tiebreaker with Texas for fifth place (and the fifth NCAA bid).

Yes, it appears a win in The Drum Bramlage South would go a long way toward assuaging our worries about not finishing in the top half of the conference or reaching the NCAA Tournament. It certainly gives us margin for error.

GAMER: Now has Kansas State winning at Texas A&M.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: No changes.

spacer

Self-Evaluation

So close to an .800 overall pick percentage, I can taste it. Drat.

I told you Oklahoma wouldn't pull that game off. Stupid computers.

OUTLOOK likes the roadies this week, with only Texas Tech (duh!) predicted to fall away from home.

Obviously, two games already are in the books, so my odds of predicting this increase knowing that, but I think at least one of those predicted road winners will be upset. Clearly, it will have to be Iowa State or Kansas.

KU certainly faces the tougher opponent, but the Jayhawks have the better coach. ISU faces a tougher environment and a team that probably should have won in Ames, but the Clones' confidence is sky-high right now.

Either way, expect both games to be close. Missouri only won by three and Texas only won by two.

Cumulative pick record: 39-11 (.780)

spacer

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

spacer

Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
4-1 (.800)
54 A&M
64 Kansas
77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma
55 I-State
62 Texas
72 Missouri
79 O-State
69 K-State
47 Tech
01.28
3-2 (.600)
71 Texas
76 Baylor
64 Kansas
72 I-State
63 Oklahoma
60 K-State
50 Tech
63 Missouri
61 O-State
76 A&M
01.30-02.01
5-0 (1.000)
67 Missouri
66 Texas
70 K-State
72 I-State
80 O-State
63 Tech
62 Oklahoma
84 Kansas
63 Baylor
60 A&M
02.04
4-1 (.800)
53 A&M
64 K-State
71 Kansas
74 Missouri)
64 Baylor
60 O-State
77 I-State
70 Oklahoma
57 Tech
74 Texas
02.06-02.08
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Kansas (PS)
@ Baylor (G)
02.11
A&M
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor (G)
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bring On The Cats

You must be a member of Bring On The Cats to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bring On The Cats. You should read them.

Join Bring On The Cats

You must be a member of Bring On The Cats to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bring On The Cats. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker