BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.04.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.3.2012)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#8 Kansas Jayhawks 8 1 18 4
#6 Baylor Bears 7 2 20 2
#4 Missouri Tigers 7 2 20 2
Iowa State Cyclones 6 3 16 6
Kansas State Wildcats 4 5 15 6
Oklahoma State Cowboys 4 5 11 11
Oklahoma Sooners 3 6 13 8
Texas Longhorns 3 6 13 9
Texas A&M Aggies 3 6 12 9
Texas Tech Red Raiders 0 9 7 14

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This is an important day for K-State. The Cats need to win or risk slipping into the lower tier of the conference, there to swim in the mud with all the other mediocre to sub-mediocre ball clubs.

While it's patently clear that K-State is not among the elites this season, there's no reason they can't finish at the head of the next segment of teams.

Iowa State is threatening to break away, too, but the Cyclones have two tough games remaining against Baylor, as well as road trips to Columbia and Manhattan.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-2 NCAA 8 3 3 W-1 Baylor Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 15-3 NCAA 12 7 8 W-2 Baylor Oklahoma State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 13-5 NCAA 3 9 11 W-3 Saint Mary's Missouri Scott Drew
Texas 4 11-7 Bubble 65 20 21 L-2 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Iowa State 5 10-8 Bubble 38 37 39 W-2 Kansas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Kansas State 6 9-9 Bubble 47 23 23 L-2 Missouri Oklahoma (2) Frank Martin
Oklahoma 7 7-11 NIT 68 80 73 L-1 Kansas State (2) Texas A&M Lon Kruger
Oklahoma State 8 5-13 None 108 102 93 W-1 Missouri Texas A&M Travis Ford
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 143 108 113 L-1 Oklahoma Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 0-18 None 224 252 236 L-9 North Texas DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

I said last week during a prior installment of BIG 12 OUTLOOK that it was the most boring one yet. Well, it's been topped. A perfect pick week resulted in absolutely zero predicted seed or record changes.

Baylor, less than two weeks removed from an 0-2 outing, actually is the hottest team in the league right now with three straight wins. Texas Tech, obviously, is the coldest team. Everyone else has won or lost one or two straight.

There also are virtually no changes in the individual game predictions, with the only adjustment being a reversal of the Texas at OSU flip-flop expressed in the final January edition of OUTLOOK.

Today has the potential to change that, though, with key match-ups in Columbia, Manhattan and Norman.

GAMER: Now has Texas losing at Oklahoma State.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

Sweet, my second perfect week of the season.

Today, OUTLOOK likes four of the five home teams, with the exception being its favoring of Baylor over interior size-less Oklahoma State.

Of those predictions, the one I'm least confident in is Oklahoma over Iowa State. The Sooners have looked fairly pathetic in Big 12 games against teams other than K-State or Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, Iowa State has taken care of business in College Station and Lubbock. They should be able to do the same in a lifeless Lloyd Noble Center.

Cumulative pick record: 35-10 (.778)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
4-1 (.800)
54 A&M
64 Kansas
77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma
55 I-State
62 Texas
72 Missouri
79 O-State
69 K-State
47 Tech
01.28
3-2 (.600)
71 Texas
76 Baylor
64 Kansas
72 I-State
63 Oklahoma
60 K-State
50 Tech
63 Missouri
61 O-State
76 A&M
01.30-02.01
5-0 (1.000)
67 Missouri
66 Texas
70 K-State
72 I-State
80 O-State
63 Tech
62 Oklahoma
84 Kansas
63 Baylor
60 A&M
02.04
A&M
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
I-State (P)
@ Oklahoma (GS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.06-02.08
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Kansas (PS)
@ Baylor (G)
02.11
A&M
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor (G)
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (PS)
@ A&M (G)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
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