BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.04.12

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This is an important day for K-State. The Cats need to win or risk slipping into the lower tier of the conference, there to swim in the mud with all the other mediocre to sub-mediocre ball clubs.

While it's patently clear that K-State is not among the elites this season, there's no reason they can't finish at the head of the next segment of teams.

Iowa State is threatening to break away, too, but the Cyclones have two tough games remaining against Baylor, as well as road trips to Columbia and Manhattan.

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

I said last week during a prior installment of BIG 12 OUTLOOK that it was the most boring one yet. Well, it's been topped. A perfect pick week resulted in absolutely zero predicted seed or record changes.

Baylor, less than two weeks removed from an 0-2 outing, actually is the hottest team in the league right now with three straight wins. Texas Tech, obviously, is the coldest team. Everyone else has won or lost one or two straight.

There also are virtually no changes in the individual game predictions, with the only adjustment being a reversal of the Texas at OSU flip-flop expressed in the final January edition of OUTLOOK.

Today has the potential to change that, though, with key match-ups in Columbia, Manhattan and Norman.

GAMER: Now has Texas losing at Oklahoma State.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

Sweet, my second perfect week of the season.

Today, OUTLOOK likes four of the five home teams, with the exception being its favoring of Baylor over interior size-less Oklahoma State.

Of those predictions, the one I'm least confident in is Oklahoma over Iowa State. The Sooners have looked fairly pathetic in Big 12 games against teams other than K-State or Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, Iowa State has taken care of business in College Station and Lubbock. They should be able to do the same in a lifeless Lloyd Noble Center.

Cumulative pick record: 35-10 (.778)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

• G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
• P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
• S — Sagarin pure points predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)

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Predicted Outcomes