BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.27.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.26.2012)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#3 Kansas Jayhawks 14 2 24 5
#7 Missouri Tigers 12 4 25 4
#9 Baylor Bears 11 5 24 5
Iowa State Cyclones 11 5 21 8
Kansas State Wildcats 8 8 19 9
Texas Longhorns 8 8 18 11
Oklahoma State Cowboys 7 9 14 15
Oklahoma Sooners 4 12 14 14
Texas A&M Aggies 4 12 13 15
Texas Tech Red Raiders 1 15 8 20

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Anyone else ready to get the hell out of conference play already? 18 games sounded good on paper, but in practice, it's exhausting. Imagine how the team must feel.

I don't know what else I can say about the conference race that hasn't already been said somewhere else.

Congrats to Kansas for its consistency, I guess. One of these years, the conference will catch up to them and topple them from their perch, but it obviously won't be any time soon at this rate.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-2 NCAA 6 4 4 W-6 Ohio State Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 14-4 NCAA 16 9 8 L-2 Kansas Oklahoma State Frank Haith
Iowa State 3 12-6 NCAA 31 31 33 W-3 Kansas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Baylor 4 12-6 NCAA 9 18 15 W-2 San Diego State Kansas State Scott Drew
Kansas State 5 10-8 NCAA 45 23 20 L-1 Baylor Oklahoma (2) Frank Martin
Texas 6 9-9 Bubble 55 26 23 W-1 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 7 7-11 None 112 79 86 W-1 Missouri Texas A&M Travis Ford
Oklahoma 8 5-13 None 118 100 90 L-1 Oral Roberts Texas Tech Lon Kruger
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 163 119 114 L-3 Oklahoma State Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 1-17 None 233 228 213 L-4 Oklahoma DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

Iowa State again passes Baylor on the strength of its win in Manhattan. The two teams have that in common, I suppose. But nothing will be settled between them until the regular-season finale in Ames.

And until the final buzzer sounds on that game, we won't have a clue who we play in the opening game of Day 2 of the Big 12 Tournament. Neither choice is very appealing, in my opinion, but Baylor has the worse coach.

Five teams in this conference are NCAA Tournament locks. Texas will be sweating right up to Selection Sunday unless it wins in Lawrence (yeah, right).

GAMER: No changes.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

Falling back on my old rule, it's almost easier to attain a perfect week when you flip the model's predicted result for any given Cats game.

They're so damn inconsistent, it makes about as much sense as any other prediction strategy.

Baylor and Texas should cruise at home. Missouri likely will win as long as it doesn't let Kansas beat it twice, but Iowa State will put up a fight.

At the time of this writing, Kansas already beat Oklahoma State and locked up the championship. So that leaves the likeliest suspect for this week's primary upset potential. Oh, joy.

Cumulative pick record: 62-18 (.775)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
4-1 (.800)
54 A&M
64 Kansas
77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma
55 I-State
62 Texas
72 Missouri
79 O-State
69 K-State
47 Tech
01.28
3-2 (.600)
71 Texas
76 Baylor
64 Kansas
72 I-State
63 Oklahoma
60 K-State
50 Tech
63 Missouri
61 O-State
76 A&M
01.30-02.01
5-0 (1.000)
67 Missouri
66 Texas
70 K-State
72 I-State
80 O-State
63 Tech
62 Oklahoma
84 Kansas
63 Baylor
60 A&M
02.04
4-1 (.800)
53 A&M
64 K-State
71 Kansas
74 Missouri)
64 Baylor
60 O-State
77 I-State
70 Oklahoma
57 Tech
74 Texas
02.06-02.08
4-1 (.800)
71 Missouri
68 Oklahoma
70 Texas
68 A&M
46 Tech
65 K-State
67 I-State
69 O-State
68 Kansas
54 Baylor
02.11
4-1 (.800)
46 A&M
69 I-State
66 O-State
81 Kansas
57 Baylor
72 Missouri
47 Oklahoma
65 Tech
64 K-State
75 Texas
02.13-02.15
5-0 (1.000)
64 I-State
79 Baylor
59 Kansas
53 K-State
69 Texas
58 Oklahoma
47 A&M
38 Tech
65 O-State
83 Missouri
02.18
3-2 (.600)
57 K-State
56 Baylor
69 Oklahoma
80 I-State
50 Tech
83 Kansas
78 Texas
90 O-State
71 Missouri
62 A&M
02.20-02.22
3-2 (.600)
77 Baylor
72 Texas
78 K-State
68 Missouri
54 Tech
72 I-State
64 O-State
77 Oklahoma
66 Kansas
58 A&M
02.25
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
70 Baylor
65 I-State
61 K-State
86 Missouri
87 Kansas (OT)
42 A&M
60 O-State
71 Texas
67 Tech (OT)
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (S)
@ I-State (GP)
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
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