BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.18.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.17.2012)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#3 Missouri Tigers 11 2 24 2
#4 Kansas Jayhawks 11 2 21 5
#9 Baylor Bears 9 4 22 4
Iowa State Cyclones 8 5 18 8
Texas Longhorns 7 6 17 9
Kansas State Wildcats 6 7 17 8
Oklahoma State Cowboys 5 8 12 14
Texas A&M Aggies 4 9 13 12
Oklahoma Sooners 3 10 13 12
Texas Tech Red Raiders 1 12 8 17

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Other than the compelling, neck-and-neck, two-horse race at the top of the standings, the conference has settled nicely into a step-by-step pecking order.

And other than the need to swap Iowa State and Texas A&M, it's remarkably similar to the preseason predictions.

Guess those dumb ol' Big 12 coaches actually know something collectively after all, huh?

I don't have too much to add, other than that today is the first of likely two cracks we'll have at Baylor, either of which essentially is a "play-in" game to the NCAA Tournament.

Barring that, I still think getting to 9-9 will help to make this a six-bid league, but you have to wonder about this team's emotional and mental state after dropping four in a row if they don't get this one today.

There simply is no margin for error left on the Cats' schedule. There's already been way too much error this year.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-2 NCAA 5 4 3 W-3 Baylor (2) Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 15-3 NCAA 9 8 8 W-6 Kansas Oklahoma State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 12-6 NCAA 7 15 15 W-1 San Diego State Missouri (2) Scott Drew
Iowa State 4 11-7 NCAA 38 36 37 L-1 Kansas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Texas 5 11-7 NCAA 39 19 18 W-4 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Kansas State 6 9-9 Bubble 63 27 24 L-2 Missouri Oklahoma (2) Frank Martin
Oklahoma State 7 6-12 None 109 99 100 L-2 Missouri Texas A&M Travis Ford
Oklahoma 8 5-13 None 112 110 94 L-5 Oral Roberts Texas Tech Lon Kruger
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 149 112 111 W-1 Oklahoma State Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 1-17 None 236 238 215 L-1 Oklahoma DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

Missouri, Texas and Kansas continue to be the hottest teams in the league, while Oklahoma has taken the mantle of "most pathetic team" away from Texas Tech for the time being.

The latter played the role of slumpbuster for the Aggies, who were riding a four-game losing streak, so guess what that means?

Yes, yours truly is tied with Oklahoma State for the second-longest losing steak in the Big 12. Wonderful.

Other than that, there isn't much to report. Another ho-hum update brought to you courtesy of a 5-0 set of picks.

GAMER: Now has Kansas State losing at Texas A&M and Texas winning at Oklahoma State.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

As mentioned previously, this was my third perfect pick week of the season.

Unfortunately, it came at the expense of a possible upset that would have sealed the Cats' dance card.

This week's performance returns me to a .800 record for the year, which is pretty solid.

Today, OUTLOOK likes the two hottest teams in the league, Missouri and Texas, to continue riding that momentum on the road against cellar-dwellers. The other three home teams are favored. All picks are unanimous.

I can't disagree with any of those selections, although I wonder if Missouri could find itself in trouble in College Station if the Tigers miss some shots and the Aggies' size asserts itself.

And, as Iowa State and Mizzou can attest, no lead ever is safe in Stillwater.

But if I had to call an upset pick that would drop OUTLOOK to 4-1 today, it'd be K-State over Baylor.

No particular reason, at least not one based on logic. It just seems that Frank Martin teams play their best when their backs are against the wall, and Scott Drew teams never play well in the face of such physical desperation.

Cumulative pick record: 52-13 (.800)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
4-1 (.800)
54 A&M
64 Kansas
77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma
55 I-State
62 Texas
72 Missouri
79 O-State
69 K-State
47 Tech
01.28
3-2 (.600)
71 Texas
76 Baylor
64 Kansas
72 I-State
63 Oklahoma
60 K-State
50 Tech
63 Missouri
61 O-State
76 A&M
01.30-02.01
5-0 (1.000)
67 Missouri
66 Texas
70 K-State
72 I-State
80 O-State
63 Tech
62 Oklahoma
84 Kansas
63 Baylor
60 A&M
02.04
4-1 (.800)
53 A&M
64 K-State
71 Kansas
74 Missouri)
64 Baylor
60 O-State
77 I-State
70 Oklahoma
57 Tech
74 Texas
02.06-02.08
4-1 (.800)
71 Missouri
68 Oklahoma
70 Texas
68 A&M
46 Tech
65 K-State
67 I-State
69 O-State
68 Kansas
54 Baylor
02.11
4-1 (.800)
46 A&M
69 I-State
66 O-State
81 Kansas
57 Baylor
72 Missouri
47 Oklahoma
65 Tech
64 K-State
75 Texas
02.13-02.15
5-0 (1.000)
64 I-State
79 Baylor
59 Kansas
53 K-State
69 Texas
58 Oklahoma
47 A&M
38 Tech
65 O-State
83 Missouri
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (PS)
@ A&M (G)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (S)
@ I-State (GP)
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
X
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