BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.13.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.12.2012)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#3 Missouri Tigers 10 2 23 2
#4 Kansas Jayhawks 10 2 20 5
#9 Baylor Bears 8 4 21 4
Iowa State Cyclones 8 4 18 7
Kansas State Wildcats 6 6 17 7
Texas Longhorns 6 6 16 9
Oklahoma State Cowboys 5 7 12 13
Oklahoma Sooners 3 9 13 11
Texas A&M Aggies 3 9 12 12
Texas Tech Red Raiders 1 11 8 16

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Six of the Big 12 stand at .500 or better in conference play, and depending on how things shake out in the final three weeks and the Big 12 Tournament, all have realistic tournament hopes.

They can be divided into three classes: the contenders (Kansas and Missouri), the also-rans (Baylor and Iowa State) and the clinging-on-to-life bubble boys (Kansas State and Texas).

All have several games remaining against each other, so the home stretch should be equal parts chaotic and fun.

Oklahoma State probably hopes it can ascend into the third category, especially after quality wins against Iowa State and Missouri, and a decent second-half effort in Lawrence, but the non-con heft just isn't there.

Oklahoma looks like total crap. In their last seven games, the Sooners have exactly one win. Guess where? And now, to make matters worse, the Red Raiders' slumpbuster has a scarlet "TT" stamped on its forehead.

So who else is down at the bottom? Some irrelevant team in Texas that doesn't care about basketball. Um ... TCU?

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-2 NCAA 5 3 3 W-2 Ohio State Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 15-3 NCAA 9 7 8 W-5 Kansas Oklahoma State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 12-6 NCAA 7 16 15 L-2 San Diego State Missouri (2) Scott Drew
Iowa State 4 11-7 NCAA 39 32 35 W-1 Kansas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Texas 5 11-7 NCAA 49 20 20 W-3 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Kansas State 6 9-9 Bubble 53 27 26 L-1 Missouri Oklahoma (2) Frank Martin
Oklahoma State 7 6-12 None 106 100 94 L-1 Missouri Texas A&M Travis Ford
Oklahoma 8 5-13 None 104 102 91 L-4 Oral Roberts Texas Tech Lon Kruger
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 156 117 115 L-4 Oklahoma Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 1-17 None 221 224 212 W-1 Oklahoma DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

Baylor's lack of defense in big games is starting to take a toll. Now that KenPom has flipped on the Bears' finale in Ames, the projected standings are close to seeing a major shakeup at the top.

Iowa State is barking up the Bears' heels, but not really because of anything either team did Saturday. It's more that Baylor's computer numbers are falling enough to project an ISU win in Ames.

If the Cyclones win tonight in Waco, expect them to finish in third place. We knew they would be a dark horse, but that simply would be a marvelous season for the Mayor.

Don't look now, but Texas suddenly is the second-hottest team in the conference. With their win Saturday, the Longhorns have cemented themselves as a serious NCAA contender.

That's not to take anything away from K-State, though. If the Cats get to 9-9, I believe they stack up well against other bubble teams because of their non-conference profile and win over Missouri.

The significance of the Texas win is more that it opens the possibility of the Big 12 getting six in the Dance, which would be spectacular. The ACC is mediocre, the Big East is down and the Pac-12 is terrible. Why not us?

The final adjustment today is that I finally demoted Oklahoma to no postseason. Oh, sure, they might land in the CBI or the CIT, but who really cares?

If you lose to Texas Tech, the burden now is on you to prove to me that you deserve more games.

GAMER: No changes.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor losing at Iowa State.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

Can I ever have a perfect week again? Three straight 4-1 efforts, and four of my last six, have me tearing my hair out.

Every time it looks like it's going well, with two or three games falling into place, some stupid derp like Oklahoma has to come out of nowhere and ruin it all. Fracking Sooners ... but you could see it coming a mile away.

Missouri looks like a safe bet to win at home this week, but I'm surprised Baylor is such a unanimous pick. That screams possible whiff game to me.

As for the three projected road winners, they are loved by Pomeroy and Sagarin, but GAMER is skeptical as it so often is with projected road winners.

I guess any one of those three teams losing wouldn't shock me, but they all are superior to the teams they're playing (if only barely, in the case of Texas A&M and Texas Tech). Each needs to win, frankly.

This could be my fourth 3-2 week of the year ... or worse, my first 2-3 outing in more than two years. Eek.

Cumulative pick record: 47-13 (.783)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
4-1 (.800)
54 A&M
64 Kansas
77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma
55 I-State
62 Texas
72 Missouri
79 O-State
69 K-State
47 Tech
01.28
3-2 (.600)
71 Texas
76 Baylor
64 Kansas
72 I-State
63 Oklahoma
60 K-State
50 Tech
63 Missouri
61 O-State
76 A&M
01.30-02.01
5-0 (1.000)
67 Missouri
66 Texas
70 K-State
72 I-State
80 O-State
63 Tech
62 Oklahoma
84 Kansas
63 Baylor
60 A&M
02.04
4-1 (.800)
53 A&M
64 K-State
71 Kansas
74 Missouri)
64 Baylor
60 O-State
77 I-State
70 Oklahoma
57 Tech
74 Texas
02.06-02.08
4-1 (.800)
71 Missouri
68 Oklahoma
70 Texas
68 A&M
46 Tech
65 K-State
67 I-State
69 O-State
68 Kansas
54 Baylor
02.11
4-1 (.800)
46 A&M
69 I-State
66 O-State
81 Kansas
57 Baylor
72 Missouri
47 Oklahoma
65 Tech
64 K-State
75 Texas
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (S)
@ I-State (GP)
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
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