BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.13.12

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Six of the Big 12 stand at .500 or better in conference play, and depending on how things shake out in the final three weeks and the Big 12 Tournament, all have realistic tournament hopes.

They can be divided into three classes: the contenders (Kansas and Missouri), the also-rans (Baylor and Iowa State) and the clinging-on-to-life bubble boys (Kansas State and Texas).

All have several games remaining against each other, so the home stretch should be equal parts chaotic and fun.

Oklahoma State probably hopes it can ascend into the third category, especially after quality wins against Iowa State and Missouri, and a decent second-half effort in Lawrence, but the non-con heft just isn't there.

Oklahoma looks like total crap. In their last seven games, the Sooners have exactly one win. Guess where? And now, to make matters worse, the Red Raiders' slumpbuster has a scarlet "TT" stamped on its forehead.

So who else is down at the bottom? Some irrelevant team in Texas that doesn't care about basketball. Um ... TCU?

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

Baylor's lack of defense in big games is starting to take a toll. Now that KenPom has flipped on the Bears' finale in Ames, the projected standings are close to seeing a major shakeup at the top.

Iowa State is barking up the Bears' heels, but not really because of anything either team did Saturday. It's more that Baylor's computer numbers are falling enough to project an ISU win in Ames.

If the Cyclones win tonight in Waco, expect them to finish in third place. We knew they would be a dark horse, but that simply would be a marvelous season for the Mayor.

Don't look now, but Texas suddenly is the second-hottest team in the conference. With their win Saturday, the Longhorns have cemented themselves as a serious NCAA contender.

That's not to take anything away from K-State, though. If the Cats get to 9-9, I believe they stack up well against other bubble teams because of their non-conference profile and win over Missouri.

The significance of the Texas win is more that it opens the possibility of the Big 12 getting six in the Dance, which would be spectacular. The ACC is mediocre, the Big East is down and the Pac-12 is terrible. Why not us?

The final adjustment today is that I finally demoted Oklahoma to no postseason. Oh, sure, they might land in the CBI or the CIT, but who really cares?

If you lose to Texas Tech, the burden now is on you to prove to me that you deserve more games.

GAMER: No changes.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor losing at Iowa State.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

Can I ever have a perfect week again? Three straight 4-1 efforts, and four of my last six, have me tearing my hair out.

Every time it looks like it's going well, with two or three games falling into place, some stupid derp like Oklahoma has to come out of nowhere and ruin it all. Fracking Sooners ... but you could see it coming a mile away.

Missouri looks like a safe bet to win at home this week, but I'm surprised Baylor is such a unanimous pick. That screams possible whiff game to me.

As for the three projected road winners, they are loved by Pomeroy and Sagarin, but GAMER is skeptical as it so often is with projected road winners.

I guess any one of those three teams losing wouldn't shock me, but they all are superior to the teams they're playing (if only barely, in the case of Texas A&M and Texas Tech). Each needs to win, frankly.

This could be my fourth 3-2 week of the year ... or worse, my first 2-3 outing in more than two years. Eek.

Cumulative pick record: 47-13 (.783)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

• G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
• P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
• S — Sagarin pure points predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)

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Predicted Outcomes