Once again, this is quite late due to my schedule being knocked out of whack. Still, I feel compelled to post it in the interest of transparency, rather than skipping it entirely. All calculations were made prior to Saturday's games.
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With a loss at Missouri appearing imminent at the time of calculation, this belated edition of BIG 12 OUTLOOK seems to sound the death knell for Baylor's nascent title hopes. Can't get swept by your two chief competitors.
Meanwhile, K-State stayed firmly mired in the mediocre, muddied middle, but gained a game on Iowa State after the Cyclones dropped a close one in Stillwater.
The sum total margin of their two games against the Pokes? Four points.
Oklahoma State and Texas are clawing and scratching to improve their resume and their Big 12 Tournament seed, but only the latter has realistic NCAA Tournament aspirations.
And Oklahoma and Texas A&M are sliding further into crapitude on the heels of respective three-game losing streaks. But hey, at least they're not Texas Tech, right?
Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
Kansas | 1 | 16-2 | NCAA | 5 | 3 | 3 | W-1 | Ohio State | Davidson | Bill Self |
Missouri | 2 | 15-3 | NCAA | 9 | 7 | 8 | W-4 | Kansas | Oklahoma State | Frank Haith |
Baylor | 3 | 13-5 | NCAA | 6 | 15 | 14 | L-1 | San Diego State | Missouri | Scott Drew |
Texas | 4 | 11-7 | NCAA | 54 | 22 | 21 | W-2 | Temple | Oregon State | Rick Barnes |
Iowa State | 5 | 10-8 | Bubble | 45 | 37 | 38 | L-1 | Kansas | Drake | Fred Hoiberg |
Kansas State | 6 | 9-9 | Bubble | 51 | 23 | 24 | W-2 | Missouri | Oklahoma (2) | Frank Martin |
Oklahoma State | 7 | 6-12 | None | 106 | 100 | 93 | W-1 | Missouri | Texas A&M | Travis Ford |
Oklahoma | 8 | 6-12 | NIT | 84 | 78 | 73 | L-3 | Oral Roberts | Texas A&M | Lon Kruger |
Texas A&M | 9 | 4-14 | None | 154 | 110 | 112 | L-3 | Oklahoma | Rice | Billy Kennedy |
Texas Tech | 10 | 0-18 | None | 233 | 247 | 225 | L-11 | North Texas | DePaul | Billy Gillispie |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
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Discussion
The game in Stillwater resulted in only slight tremors this week, nothing like the tectonic changes we saw in the previous edition. Iowa State loses a game and a seed to Texas, while the Pokes hopscotch over their instate rival.
Other observations: Missouri suddenly is the hottest team in the league, while Tech's losing streak just has become a sad train wreck to witness from afar. And K-State's NCAA resume is starting to look pretty shaky...
GAMER: Now has Baylor losing at Texas.
Pomeroy: No changes.
Sagarin: No changes.
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Self-Evaluation
As I correctly opined, OUTLOOK missed one of the games because it had way too many teams winning on the road. Given how close the Cowboys played in a loss in Ames, I was not surprised to see them topple the Clones.
The model is more conservative in predicting Saturday's games, sticking with four home teams. The only projected road winner is Oklahoma, which seemed like a safe pick given Tech's struggles. Derp.
Cumulative pick record: 43-12 (.782)
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Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin pure points predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
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Predicted Outcomes
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