BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.12.12

Once again, this is quite late due to my schedule being knocked out of whack. Still, I feel compelled to post it in the interest of transparency, rather than skipping it entirely. All calculations were made prior to Saturday's games.


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.11.2012)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#4 Missouri Tigers 9 2 22 2
#7 Kansas Jayhawks 9 2 19 5
#6 Baylor Bears 8 3 21 3
Iowa State Cyclones 7 4 17 7
Kansas State Wildcats 6 5 17 6
Texas Longhorns 5 6 15 9
Oklahoma State Cowboys 5 6 12 12
Oklahoma Sooners 3 8 13 10
Texas A&M Aggies 3 8 12 11
Texas Tech Red Raiders 0 11 7 16

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With a loss at Missouri appearing imminent at the time of calculation, this belated edition of BIG 12 OUTLOOK seems to sound the death knell for Baylor's nascent title hopes. Can't get swept by your two chief competitors.

Meanwhile, K-State stayed firmly mired in the mediocre, muddied middle, but gained a game on Iowa State after the Cyclones dropped a close one in Stillwater.

The sum total margin of their two games against the Pokes? Four points.

Oklahoma State and Texas are clawing and scratching to improve their resume and their Big 12 Tournament seed, but only the latter has realistic NCAA Tournament aspirations.

And Oklahoma and Texas A&M are sliding further into crapitude on the heels of respective three-game losing streaks. But hey, at least they're not Texas Tech, right?

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-2 NCAA 5 3 3 W-1 Ohio State Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 15-3 NCAA 9 7 8 W-4 Kansas Oklahoma State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 13-5 NCAA 6 15 14 L-1 San Diego State Missouri Scott Drew
Texas 4 11-7 NCAA 54 22 21 W-2 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Iowa State 5 10-8 Bubble 45 37 38 L-1 Kansas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Kansas State 6 9-9 Bubble 51 23 24 W-2 Missouri Oklahoma (2) Frank Martin
Oklahoma State 7 6-12 None 106 100 93 W-1 Missouri Texas A&M Travis Ford
Oklahoma 8 6-12 NIT 84 78 73 L-3 Oral Roberts Texas A&M Lon Kruger
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 154 110 112 L-3 Oklahoma Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 0-18 None 233 247 225 L-11 North Texas DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

The game in Stillwater resulted in only slight tremors this week, nothing like the tectonic changes we saw in the previous edition. Iowa State loses a game and a seed to Texas, while the Pokes hopscotch over their instate rival.

Other observations: Missouri suddenly is the hottest team in the league, while Tech's losing streak just has become a sad train wreck to witness from afar. And K-State's NCAA resume is starting to look pretty shaky...

GAMER: Now has Baylor losing at Texas.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

As I correctly opined, OUTLOOK missed one of the games because it had way too many teams winning on the road. Given how close the Cowboys played in a loss in Ames, I was not surprised to see them topple the Clones.

The model is more conservative in predicting Saturday's games, sticking with four home teams. The only projected road winner is Oklahoma, which seemed like a safe pick given Tech's struggles. Derp.

Cumulative pick record: 43-12 (.782)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
4-1 (.800)
54 A&M
64 Kansas
77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma
55 I-State
62 Texas
72 Missouri
79 O-State
69 K-State
47 Tech
01.28
3-2 (.600)
71 Texas
76 Baylor
64 Kansas
72 I-State
63 Oklahoma
60 K-State
50 Tech
63 Missouri
61 O-State
76 A&M
01.30-02.01
5-0 (1.000)
67 Missouri
66 Texas
70 K-State
72 I-State
80 O-State
63 Tech
62 Oklahoma
84 Kansas
63 Baylor
60 A&M
02.04
4-1 (.800)
53 A&M
64 K-State
71 Kansas
74 Missouri)
64 Baylor
60 O-State
77 I-State
70 Oklahoma
57 Tech
74 Texas
02.06-02.08
4-1 (.800)
71 Missouri
68 Oklahoma
70 Texas
68 A&M
46 Tech
65 K-State
67 I-State
69 O-State
68 Kansas
54 Baylor
02.11
A&M
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
X
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