BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.07.12

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Baylor and Missouri pretty much did what we expected in home debuts, although the margin of Oklahoma's defeat was perhaps a bit shocking.

Even more inevitable and predictable was the annual meltdown in Lawrence, of which we shall speak no further.

Iowa State beating Texas perhaps was a surprise when comparing non-conference profiles, but it wasn't a surprise to 1) anyone who's actually studied their respective rosters or 2) anyone who's ever been to Hilton Coliseum.

And Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech in a game that I didn't even realize was played until a full day later. Talk about off the radar. Anyway, I hope the Pokes enjoy one of their few Big 12 wins this season, because pain is coming.

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

GAMER was impressed by Missouri's demolition of Oklahoma, but apparently saw something in Baylor it didn't like.

Pomeroy was suitably impressed by both Kansas and Missouri posting lopsided wins.

But I don't know what Sagarin is smoking right now. Despite Texas looking ugly in a loss in Ames, he boosted the Longhorns' computer profile by almost eight points and added multiple wins for the burnt orange.

On the flip side, Baylor plummeted in his system, causing the Bears to incur seven additional losses. Yikes.

Basically, what I'm saying is that Sagarin's predictor has more mood swings than a pregnant teenager right now.

OUTLOOK likes three teams to win road games Saturday, which worries me because that almost never happens.

Baylor should be fine at Tech, but I'm hoping events in Manhattan and Norman defy prediction, for obvious reasons.

The other "States" (Iowa and Oklahoma) face challenging road games. Wins there are unlikely, but not impossible.

GAMER: Now has Baylor losing at Kansas and Kansas State, Missouri winning at Kansas and Kansas State, and Oklahoma winning at Texas Tech.

Pomeroy: Now has Kansas winning at Baylor, and Missouri winning at Kansas State and Texas.

Sagarin: Now has Baylor losing at Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M; Iowa State winning at Oklahoma and losing at Texas A&M; Kansas winning at Baylor and Missouri, and losing at Texas; Kansas State winning at Baylor and Oklahoma, and losing at Texas A&M; Missouri winning at Baylor and losing at Texas A&M; Oklahoma losing at Texas A&M and Texas Tech; Oklahoma State winning at Oklahoma; Texas winning at Baylor, Kansas State, Missouri and Oklahoma; and Texas A&M winning at Oklahoma.

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Self-Evaluation

You know, one unanticipated advantage of reducing the conference to 10 teams is it's now a lot easier to calculate my successful pick percentage each week. It's always a multiple of 20 percent. Thanks, Colorado and Nebraska!

Here's hoping I can improve on this 80-percent pick rate, but past history suggests it's unlikely. BIG 12 OUTLOOK graded out at 78.1 percent (75 of 96) in 2011, 81.3 percent (78 of 96) in 2010 and 77.1 percent (74 of 96) in 2009.

The only miss of the week was Iowa State over Texas, which GAMER called and I frankly expected to happen.

Hopefully, Pomeroy and Sagarin will get the message soon that Texas ain't all that hot this season, or there will be more whiffs to come.

Cumulative pick record: 4-1 (.800)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

• G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
• P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
• S — Sagarin pure points predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)

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Predicted Outcomes